Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Meanwhile, back on the existing home lays....
Not many selections around at the moment. And the ones that are tend to be coming from leagues which don't normally qualify.
That said.
Finally have one tomorrow:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Right, let me just showcase the overs:
Now what I'm looking to do is use 80% of the p/l that makes up my entire system. This will weed out the leagues with not much happening hopefuly before any damage is done. Then 1 month later I'll look to use 81%, then 82%....et etc etc....until I'm confident with it all.
I say this because while CRO HNL and POR Liga Portugal are close they are not quite there. Serbia has a little further to go still.
Were I starting from tomorrow I would only be trading the ENG Prem game and the Eredivisie game.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
All leagues for tomorrow are under my threshold of historical selections so that's another day with nothing.
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@Andy-Donnelly well my backtesting is excellent.
All I've done is start with a broad range of statistics which I feel are relevant then I go through them individually and exclude the stat with highest negative yield. Then I go again and again and again.
Stat has to be at top or bottom of range. Will never exclude anything in the middle as it's not logical.
I've done that for overs, unders, away lays and now I'm trying it with home lays.
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@Richard-Latimer Sounds good, will be following with interest. I don’t know why but the O1.5 market has caused me no end of pain, numerous strategy ideas failed in the past so keen to see it go well!
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@Andy-Donnelly I'm looking at both scored and conceded for home and away as well as how many times both have scored conceded more than 1.
I don't look at averages at all anymore as they can be easily skewed. I think percentages are a much more accurate reflection.
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@Richard-Latimer What stats are using for your O1.5 filter out of interest?
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Nothing Friday again. Really looking forward to splitting the pot between this and my over 1.5 in Jan. Although actually I've got nothing on that for tomorrow either.
While I'm not going to start putting actual money until Jan 1st on those I might post up what would be in the meantime.
I'm also going to start working on a 2nd home lay system getting rid of certain overcomplications. The current one is much less complicated than previous things I've been guily of trying in the past but the others I've been working on since are all far simpler and that's the only way I'm going now.
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And so as Christmas draws nearer I am still no closer to righting the ship. That said. A) Thank god I left Serie A today. B)Serbia is starting to pull in the right direction and I feel a little more confident for the next set of fixtures.
Slavia game did provide me with valuable data even if it was painful at the time. And as the saying goes. We go again.
1/2 today.
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And then I look at the easy win I turned away from in Serbia!
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Fuckity f**k f**k
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Slavia currently making hard work of things though.
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Thought I posted this earlier.
That said, a quick look at Bologna and they've not lost in 10 and this isn't exactly a common occurence for my filter. 3 unrefined up to this point. This is the first in refined data so I may need to be cautious there too.
I'll kick myself way more if the home team wins and I place the trade as opposed to if they don't win and I keep my powder dry.
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Serbia is kind of on the edge of will it or won't it be profitable. Odds on Novi Pazar mean it's highly unlikely to qualify anyway. The second Serbian game is almost at evens meaning it's more likely to lose anyway.
I will be leaving Serbia alone and concentrating on the other 3.
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Just as soon as Bundesliga opens up for selection it's gone.
Irritating but a few mistakes are all part of the journey.
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Way out of my odds range but you still don't really expect them to lose Heerenveen beat PSV
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Well that backfired.....doh!
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Back in the summer I noticed something quite quickly and did something about it. Low low odds in Sweden, Finland and Norway all lost in quick succession. They were ruled out immediately and from then those leagues prospered (adding these low odds back to Eliteserien only makes things worse for that league in case anyone wondered) for the most part.
Up until Germany Bundesliga I hadn't really noticed this happening with other leagues to such a degree. Higher odds knocking it out of the park consistently. Lower odds all getting hammered. And I've checked. Can't see any other poorly performing leagues this could apply to right now either.
Knocking away all odds below 2.46 improves things hugely. It doesn't help Nov so I'm not just trying to make every month a winner. Just follow striking patterns I can see and not remove the biggest leagues in entirety without due cause.
Anyway, all this is to say.....Bundesliga is back on the table but only for odds 2.46+
I have added the rule to my spreadsheet.
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First is the standard price. Best kind of price.
Second is a low odds lay.
Third is unlikely to be anything as currently home price is sky high.
