Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Shamrock Rovers coming up as an early season away lay today. Odds obviously quite low. Shamrock are the superior team overall....but early season h/a form suggest this SHOULD be close. Fingers crossed.
Aside from that it's a lay of Carrick Rangers anywhere 25.00 or under.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
So in order to avoid removing these early season games completely I need to find an angle where I add a couple more rules but just for these. They may well end up being completely removed but for now I don't want to do that.
As I mentioned before games where the home team has won 100% or 75% (possible in 3 and 4 games respectively) results had up until last been decent enough. When I look back at the odds it might pay to put a lower threshold on until more form is established. If I halve this to 11.00 I am still looking at 7 okay priced winners and only 1 fairly low odds loser.
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Feck arse!!! Junior lose at home to Envigado for only the 2nd time in their history. They didn't just lose either, they got spanked!
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2 lays just starting. 1 in Honduras and the other in Columbia.
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Recently looking at how lays performing when between 6 & 9 games played in total between both teams at the beginning of the season as these have been poor on the South American leagues just starting.
Initially I could see that poor results were pretty much limited to the lower odds range. While I thought of removing this odds range purely from the first few games it's something I was loathe to do. I hate revolving things around odds as they can change and this makes a mockery out of why you excluded/included in the first place.
Also, the other games hadn't been profitable regardless when large loser in Columbia taken into account.
However for these games when you take home teams with a 75% or greater win rate results improve significantly. In fact Once Caldas are the only team in that bracket to lose so far. Apart from that there would have been 7 wins.
I'm not changing it just yet but it's on the cards.
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Can't remember why I thought there were 2 but clearly only 1. In any case it's over at HT.
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Only two tomorrow. Sheet updated already.
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Once Caldas took the lead 2nd half but 2 late goals (one very late OG) was enough to lose.
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Once Caldas playing overnight and this game coming up as only away lay for tomorrow. A bit wary as so few games played and h2h pretty much 50/50. Having said that, all early form points to a Once Caldas win.
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Finally updated my actual bets from yesterday.
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Looking at the alternative lays are building up a bit of ahead of steam now then Huesca look a good bet not to lose as do Olimpia in Paraguay. Just monitoring here though.
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Didn't realise at the time but that one was Greek Super League so nevermind haha!!
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Turned out ok in the end. Just the one tomorrow.
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Not looked at overs yet.
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Today is kind of in the balance but it may have been so much better. I'm looking at results where less than 10 total games had been played and it's fair to say results are a mixed bag. However, look a little closer and the away teams with higher odds are SO FAR not winning. When you look at those where the prices suggest an even contest though, results have been very poor. Small sample but the logic is there.
Good teams where odds suggest a large imbalance that have started season well and away team also playing to form - Away team mostly failing to win.
Fairly evenly matched teams according to the odds but where 3 game form for start of season suggests home superiority - Home team losing a good few of these.
I don't know, it's just an observation but one I'll be wary of from now on.
You could argue I've tried to justify so much crap in my time here though that you're best off not listening and following your own head haha!!
It's fair to say I should be way better off than I am currently and need to stop finding a way to shoot myself in the foot!
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Santa Fe really fecked things up in the last game of the night. Wasn't expecting that. Nevermind.
In the process of updating for today. 1 game from Columbia already in with the next not due to start until 11:00.
As for overs, back to just looking for now.
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Jumped too soon on the overs. Meanwhile team lays having a very solid day.
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First goal comes minutes after posting that. Price is still not far away from what I took anyway even now.
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In the process of updating fortoday but Wellington already inplay at 0-0 approaching HT as a filtered over.
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Nice way to bounce back after a turbulent couple of days. Also took a nice profit on the filtered overs which went 6/7.
