Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Break even on the safe method for backs and small profit on the other due to Man Utd's failure.

Only 1 tomorrow.

Over 2.5's garbage however they were played.

That's all the analysis I can be arsed with after a bottle of wine!

Richard Latimer

Israel game turned out not to be today but Egypt game 0-0 HT and won at a canter 3-0.

The other 2 I was monitoring were just outside my qualifying range so far and I'm just keeping an eye on them. In the words of Liam Gallagher.....As You Were.

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated with more backs for monitoring purposes only right now.

Richard Latimer

For backs it was either a very small profit today or two wins on the basis of leaving bets to run in the event of a red/scratch.

Over/Unders was the same result for both methods with 2 small losses and 1 MUCH larger.

FHG looks to have pottered on without change. Getting seriously bored of these now haha!!

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated

Richard Latimer

There were 2 games today and I could have been a sad git and gone looking for prices pre-match and ht but I just didn't. It's Christmas day ffs haha!!

The israeli home back was 0-0 at ht but went on to win 1-0. Providing this went inplay as planned then it would have been a nice win for xG be damned method. No idea on inplay stats though so not much point in recording data there.

Also over 2.5 was 1-0 at HT so either almost break even trading out in 'even more goals' or maybe it qualified to be left in and maybe it didn't in 'goals, goals, goals'. Who really knows!!??

As is I'll scrub any potential data for today and move on to tomorrow.

Ryan

@richard-latimer cheers buddy, had a little look at the sheet. Looking good

Richard Latimer

Well, aside from the fact I'm missing these prices there a few today. Not sure if I'm going to be able to monitor them properly but sheet updated in any case.

Richard Latimer

Long shot but did anyone get the Bursaspor match odds both pre-match and HT? Also Bursaspor/Everton over 2.5 price both pre-match and at HT?

Richard Latimer

Great day for FHG which takes things just about back into the green. However......you can't keep a good tinkerman down and true to form I've been looking at something new. Along the same lines as backing teams I have been looking at over/under 2.5 markets with a view to either greening up at ht 2 goals scored, redding out or letting things play on depending on xG looking at inplay stats.

I only have 4 days data so far and from this there has been small profit. Again though once more what I thought would happen isn't quite happening so I'm tracking these 2 ways now.

3 goals scored before HT it's a win. Green up on 2 goals, trade out if xG under 2 goals for FH (counting all shots off target as 10% chance while my methods on the rest are already explained above). Otherwise let it run.
3 goals scored before HT again it's obviously a win. 2 goals scored, let it play out. less than 2 goals trade/red out.

Sheet is fully updated for tomorrow with my new strats.

Richard Latimer

Thanks @Ryan-Carruthers

So the only back ended 0-0 at ht and inplay stats were not conclusive as to who was on top (sot equal but no areas of pitch given) so recorded the price to trade out.

Interestingly enough they did indeed go on to win and quite easily in the end. This is the 6th such win with only 2 from the games traded out at a loss going on to draw or lose.

With that in mind I've started tracking both ways of playing these.

The first based on xG at ht will always trade out HT if 1 or more goals to the good. Subsequent decisions will be based on xG and level of dominance shown in FH.

2nd way is rather more simple and presently more lucrative (however it's entirely possible things will level out with variance). Trade out if 1 or more goals up. For all other eventualities leave to run.

Ryan

@richard-latimer get why people negatively review it the first bit is pretty bland but the principle of the process is alright and it’s like £7 as well I think?

Richard Latimer

Have you read it too @John-Folan? I put so much stock in reviews these days and overall it's how I avoid disappointment haha!! I won't touch a hotel without the tripadvisor seal of approval.

John Folan

Reviews are bollocks.

Richard Latimer

Gets very poor reviews.

Richard Latimer

Sounds interesting @Ryan-Carruthers . Might add that to my amazon wishlist.

Ryan

@richard-latimer A book by a pro gambler who has been very successful with the asian handicap models, that well in fact he has bought two football teams and applied his model to the way they pick players its a cracking book. Section one did bore me, going back through the actual method now to see if I can build a method with BTC stats to see what I can create to replicate it.

Richard Latimer

Also Famalicao scored FHG.

Richard Latimer

I'm looking after kids all day every day at present so completely missed the first team back which I know would have been a loss of some description and most probably a trade out at ht. Also though betfair went down so may have been a full loss if unable to trade out there.

Numancia were drawing at ht but looked good for win and so the decision would have been stay in. As it happens they won. Not recording either loss or win though as cannot do so accurately. I'll move on to tomorrow.

Richard Latimer

No what is it @Ryan-Carruthers?