Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Loads of potential for tomorrow. Let's see what happens. Sheet updated with FHG's.
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Both Saudi games didn't go inplay but Ajax had a couple of FHG.
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Hi Patrik, as already discussed I don't have this info to hand easily but other than a purple patch it wasn't great and too few selections to really go anywhere hence why I'm looking at this other thing using similar stats.
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hi Richard,im Patrik...
how many times non winning ELO strong favorit 1HT?percentage?thanks -
A bit of time on my hands this morning so copied the new thing I've been working on into main sheet on dropbox.
Working very well after 26 games.
Essentially looking at the same stuff I have been for a while in terms of relevant statistics. The difference here is those stats relate to the entire game rather than just the first half.
Current seasons data only, 3 home/away games min.
Papertrading only until the new year.
Back pre-match and assess again at ht. If drawing refer to inplay stats and shots on target in particular using https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2013/11/13/5098186/shot-matrix-i-shot-location-and-expected-goals
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@Martin-Futter Going back to my last question what kind of odds would I be looking at if pre-match odds 1.36/1.40/1,80? 1 goal up at HT of course.
I've tried to get this info from betfair historical data but I can't work out how to do this anymore since they changed it all.
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Sheet updated. 3 for tomorrow but only one of those is in the big leagues.
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1 from 2 tonight with Bayern failing to score FH surprisingly enough.
Team backs coming along well. Hopefully something to post soon enough.
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2 for tomorrow both in Bundesliga
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Thanks @Martin-Futter
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@richard-latimer 1.1ish for the 1.2 ones, 1.2 ish for the 1.58
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Nothing for tomorrow
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Jong Ajax called off due to weather no doubt as so many are at present. FHG's in Israel and Argentina for nice odds. There's something in this I'm sure there is.
As an aside, I know it's a tricky question with no real answer but starting odds of 1.27, 1.29 & 1.58 on the home team what kind of odds range am I looking at when the home teams go in 1 goal up at ht for the trade?
I didn't initially take this down as I was thinking to leave the bet going when inplay stats looked good for it. Initial results on what I'm looking at suggest this to be folly.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Not a great end to the day or for that matter the weekend.
In the all leagues tracker Ruzomberok drew a blank but then with only selected leagues both Ajax and Palestino joined them. 3 more to track tomorrow.
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A solid day when you remove Malta and Serbia for which I now have. No liquidity in any case. They are certainly not on the selected leagues where I see this working very well already and they are not leagues I will be adding. Scottish 2 drew a blank but need to see more from those as price obtained was pretty good.
Hull seemed to fit all the criteria for a league which is used but confidence on this match was not as high for some reason and so it proved correct. I believe that while all individual criteria were met perhaps it was only just reached on certain things which pushed it out a little. 67% games had FHG to home team and 33% games had away team scoring FHG but this is not as high as many. I believe that total goals scored only amounts to 100 between both teams then home team would need to be 70%+
This is all just trying to replicate what I see and also understand reasons for confidence level where I am picking these up. I may be completely wrong but I see no other explanation.
Sheet updated with tomorrow's
I am continuing to work on team backs behind the scenes but nothing to share at present.
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Of the 3 both Qatar selections won while France drew a blank. Sheet updated once more.
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1st selection spoiled by red card, 2nd selection came in.
Sheet updated with 3x for tomorrow or only 2x if only looking at specific leagues.
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Another great source of data and the likelihood of goals coming from sot in different locations.
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Updated the sheet with 2 FHG selections to track tomorrow.
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Nothing doing for tomorrow in terms of FHG
