Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Well it's early days of course but since I made my last discovery 3/3 and decent prices too. Importantly I have began to drag Oct back to break even.

Since the beginning of Oct I've been losing in an alarming fashion so this is welcomed.

[A Former User]

@stuart-capstick said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

@richard-latimer

You don't need to be glued to the screen

Betfair odds pre kickoff =6
You queue for, say, 5.

No screen watching needed

I do that all the time with set and forgets more often than not queing my price the night before just don't forget to select "Keep"

[Stuart Capstick]

@richard-latimer

You don't need to be glued to the screen

Betfair odds pre kickoff =6
You queue for, say, 5.

No screen watching needed

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

This is on the edge in around 3 criteria but I've streamlined everything so much I'm not going to worry.

[Richard Latimer]

@stuart-capstick said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Forgive me if you already do this, but would it not reduce your losses considerably if you queued for a lower price?
Overs prices come in considerably in the first 10 mins. Even draw prices move a lot in the first 10 mins.
Your strike rate is very high, but with lower lay price you could still be profitable even if you miss the odd game where there is an early goal (or two)

It's not something I've looked into because I really am trying to keep it simple and don't want to be in front of the screen when I'm trying to sort my love life out plus house move etc.....I will bear it in mind but the average odds I collect should be more than enough to profit well.

The only reason I haven't made as much as I'd like is because it's a work in progress. I could either sit around tracking and making no money at all or I can earn while I learn. Choosing to do the latter.

[Stuart Capstick]

Forgive me if you already do this, but would it not reduce your losses considerably if you queued for a lower price?
Overs prices come in considerably in the first 10 mins. Even draw prices move a lot in the first 10 mins.
Your strike rate is very high, but with lower lay price you could still be profitable even if you miss the odd game where there is an early goal (or two)

[Richard Latimer]

All I have done is literally take out some of the bigger numbers which I have done in all other areas of this system.

Low numbers don't work and big big numbers flatter to deceive.

A return to the mean being imminent unless you're talking Norway, Iceland or Singapore.

[Richard Latimer]

90% is great by the way.

The struggling aspect is in 75% this month so far.

We'll see how it works out from here.

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

If you have found something that is hitting 98+% then it really must be down to back-fitting. I’ve been guilty in the past of using my data to do the same and it just doesn’t stack up going forward, as you’ve found out often. What if it drops off to 94% for 100 trades - will it then be tinkered again? And also of your system is hitting 90+% and still struggling badly then I think that risk/reward ratio would be a major red flag!

It's a statistical anomaly for sure bit I've only looked at what's logical. I don't expect it to continue like that.

Plus I'm still tracking everything that's been struggling.

[A Former User]

If you have found something that is hitting 98+% then it really must be down to back-fitting. I’ve been guilty in the past of using my data to do the same and it just doesn’t stack up going forward, as you’ve found out often. What if it drops off to 94% for 100 trades - will it then be tinkered again? And also of your system is hitting 90+% and still struggling badly then I think that risk/reward ratio would be a major red flag!

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

@richard-latimer it was there. I took it. I’m not proud

I think if you saw something that took your 91-92% system that was currently struggling badly.....to a 98% system with almost the exact same profit and less games you'd probably do the same as me

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer it was there. I took it. I’m not proud

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Haha nope......reject that. Makes no sense to keep throwing money at something when you notice a major potential flaw!

[John Folan]

[Richard Latimer]

Full update:

All went very badly wrong after the last but with the exciting revelation of my latest findings detailed on the football thread I expect normal service to resume sooner rather than later.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

Good old Bolivia didn't let me down so minimised the damage done by Aldershot firing blanks!

[Richard Latimer]

This post is deleted!