Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Slight losing day today on what I did take and typically enough J-league 2 all won when I left them alone.
Late updating tonight but some overnight interest.
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Both unders won so that's good.
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Off to Nocture at Blenheim to watch Noel Gallagher and his high flying birds soon so may miss this one if I don't update now.
Can Tho in Nam is the only earlyish game tomorrow (over) unless you count 3 unders in J-league 2 which I'll be steering well clear of!
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A couple of unders tomorrow - 1 in Finland and 1 in Ireland Prem. Both leagues doing well currently. Sheet updated.
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The overs in usa all won and today's in Iceland is no longer going in play so that's another sweep.
1-1 on the unders so glad I left Brazil serie a well alone!
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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Should have said no change of heart
So glad I stuck to my guns.
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Should have said no change of heart
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Couple of overnight unders in Brazil but I'm 100% leaving these for now. No change of hear here after the weekend.
5 overs on the cards with 4 of these coming overnight in the MLS. Sheet updated.
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Just realised I hadn't altered rule sheet on the unders to reflect my latest changes. Done now.
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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
2 unders for tomorrow (Nam and Belarus). Sheet updated.
Easy win in Nam while Belarus never hit 1.2 pre kick-off.
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2 unders for tomorrow (Nam and Belarus). Sheet updated.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Exceptional day with 4 overs and 4 unders at quite decent prices on the whole all winning.
Slutsk in Belarus won 5-0 but luckily the odds never got to 1.2 prekick-off and anyone following my way of doing things would not have been matched there.
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Whole bunch of stuff for tomorrow.
Catolica just started in the overs although drifted a bit pre kick-off.
More unders again but these look pretty good on paper so fingers, arms, toes, feet etc....crossed!
Sheet updated with all the info.
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Time to get things back on track for tomorrow.
1 over and 1 under.
Over is at 00:15 in Peru and under is in Belarus which has so far been very good.
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So as is obvious from the above I've been looking closely at criteria's 5 through 8 on the unders for a while. First I took 6 and 7 which apply to number of away goals scored essentially and took this number lower than 5 and 8. A few outliers crept above 50 and these seemed to perform poorly as far as unders concerned. It was an easy modify anyway as filters easily enough changed.
Aside from certain leagues being poo though it just doesn't appear to be enough.
Bahia had 3 of the 4 criteria at 40% meaning that 2 goals for each team was more than possible.
After looking good for 30 minutes Atletico & Fluminense went on a goal spree in that game and criteria's 5 & 8 were 40% & 60% respectively there (this is home scored/away conceded 2 or more goals so a high chance of home scoring 2+ (they ended up with 5 I think).
This has been a common factor when these 2 criteria have for example 1 @ 40%+ & 1 @ 50%+ with 5 wins to the 4 losses so I've taken the decision to remove.
It makes things far more complicated than the overs and means each day of fixtures has a bit of working out to get through before simply saying that they all qualify.......but needs must!
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Bahia one to miss. An outlier where criteria's 5 through 7 all read 40+. This has never happened before since I started tracking these criteria and it shows as some one off in a system where you don't want goals.
No help for today but it's something to take from this car crash!
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FFS Brazil one to miss after tonight!
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After the s**t show this morning with J-league 2 and then Thailand I was in 2 minds whether to bother with Norway unders given I had no data. Glad I rolled the dice there.
Has to be caution but also need to follow what has made money previously I guess.
Left Kongsvinger over alone as criteria's 5-8 only totalled 300 on the nose and record isn't so good when that happens. Winner but no regrets here.
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J-league 2 wildly inconsistent....... unders/overs it doesn't matter which!
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Columbia went as planned as did MLS. Richmond Kickers scored a late goal to win in the overs there.
Unfortunately.......2 overs losses on the bounce in J-league 2 mean I've pretty much had it with that league as far as the overs concerned. Not excluded yet as still not far enough in the red but I imagine it's a matter of time.
Unders there still up for debate.
Incredibly frustrating as turning profit into break even but the more data I can collect the more accurate results should be in the end.
