Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

All four listed on the filtered leagues page had second half goals since the 7th . To quote The Rock. ‘You’re Welcome’

Both U.S. games not on betfair. Odds too low on Singapore and Iceland for over 1.5.

[John Folan]

Might go back through and add in the scores for any game that was over 1.5 at half time. See what the strike rate is once the floodgates have opened. May as well wring it for everything we can get

[John Folan]

All four listed on the filtered leagues page had second half goals since the 7th . To quote The Rock. ‘You’re Welcome’

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Ok so using the filtered league results we have a total of 392 games under 1.5 goals. Of those a whopping 332 had a goal second half with an impressive strike rate of 84.7 % giving us a bit more wiggle room on the max price which goes up to 6.0.

The 0-0's were a strike rate of 82.1% and that is 133 with a goal second half from 162 games.

Filtered leagues are a thing. We all know it. I've done work before in laying odds on favourites at football and the same thing happened. Remarkably very similar in the leagues that underperformed with this.

You've got an incredibly similar strike rate to the over 1.5 from kick off. I still think that will be improved as certain leagues in medium deficit now are discarded.

Mad isn’t it? Two good approaches now. Bring forth the money

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Ok so using the filtered league results we have a total of 392 games under 1.5 goals. Of those a whopping 332 had a goal second half with an impressive strike rate of 84.7 % giving us a bit more wiggle room on the max price which goes up to 6.0.

The 0-0's were a strike rate of 82.1% and that is 133 with a goal second half from 162 games.

Filtered leagues are a thing. We all know it. I've done work before in laying odds on favourites at football and the same thing happened. Remarkably very similar in the leagues that underperformed with this.

You've got an incredibly similar strike rate to the over 1.5 from kick off. I still think that will be improved as certain leagues in medium deficit now are discarded.

[John Folan]

Ok so using the filtered league results we have a total of 392 games under 1.5 goals. Of those a whopping 332 had a goal second half with an impressive strike rate of 84.7 % giving us a bit more wiggle room on the max price which goes up to 6.0.

The 0-0's were a strike rate of 82.1% and that is 133 with a goal second half from 162 games.

Filtered leagues are a thing. We all know it. I've done work before in laying odds on favourites at football and the same thing happened. Remarkably very similar in the leagues that underperformed with this.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

For me league filters are the most obvious when everything else looks good. Championship for example appeared to be God awful!

Turkey super also rubbish but lower league ok

I think there are some leagues where the teams are too evenly matched and they just don’t score that much. Must be some stats somewhere.

Certainly a contributing factor. Also some leagues may have a great s/r but odds so low it negates that fact.

Will have a play with your filtered ones today and see what it throws up

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

For me league filters are the most obvious when everything else looks good. Championship for example appeared to be God awful!

Turkey super also rubbish but lower league ok

I think there are some leagues where the teams are too evenly matched and they just don’t score that much. Must be some stats somewhere.

Certainly a contributing factor. Also some leagues may have a great s/r but odds so low it negates that fact.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

For me league filters are the most obvious when everything else looks good. Championship for example appeared to be God awful!

Turkey super also rubbish but lower league ok

I think there are some leagues where the teams are too evenly matched and they just don’t score that much. Must be some stats somewhere.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

For me league filters are the most obvious when everything else looks good. Championship for example appeared to be God awful!

Turkey super also rubbish but lower league ok

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

For me league filters are the most obvious when everything else looks good. Championship for example appeared to be God awful!

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

[Richard Latimer]

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

You should beat 5.3 or more by a fair whack. Could potentially do alright getting involved on smarkets and Betdaq on the bigger leagues at 2% commission.

Is all that from the filtered tab or the gross data?

Gross data

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

You should beat 5.3 or more by a fair whack. Could potentially do alright getting involved on smarkets and Betdaq on the bigger leagues at 2% commission.

Is all that from the filtered tab or the gross data?

[John Folan]

The trick now is to get that strike rate up towards 90% and we are really in business. Good data set to work from tho

[John Folan]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

You should beat 5.3 or more by a fair whack. Could potentially do alright getting involved on smarkets and Betdaq on the bigger leagues at 2% commission.

[John Folan]

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

[Ryan]

@john-folan wow!!

[John Folan]

Ok using the LTO Overview tab 162 games were 0-0 at half time. Of those 133 had a second half goal giving a strike rate of 82.1%. Looking at the odds probability table laying the correct score at anything less than 5.50 is value. As most CS is around the 4.5 mark at half time these could potentially be a gold mine.