Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
-
hi Richard,im Patrik...
how many times non winning ELO strong favorit 1HT?percentage?thanks -
A bit of time on my hands this morning so copied the new thing I've been working on into main sheet on dropbox.
Working very well after 26 games.
Essentially looking at the same stuff I have been for a while in terms of relevant statistics. The difference here is those stats relate to the entire game rather than just the first half.
Current seasons data only, 3 home/away games min.
Papertrading only until the new year.
Back pre-match and assess again at ht. If drawing refer to inplay stats and shots on target in particular using https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2013/11/13/5098186/shot-matrix-i-shot-location-and-expected-goals
-
@Martin-Futter Going back to my last question what kind of odds would I be looking at if pre-match odds 1.36/1.40/1,80? 1 goal up at HT of course.
I've tried to get this info from betfair historical data but I can't work out how to do this anymore since they changed it all.
-
Sheet updated. 3 for tomorrow but only one of those is in the big leagues.
-
1 from 2 tonight with Bayern failing to score FH surprisingly enough.
Team backs coming along well. Hopefully something to post soon enough.
-
2 for tomorrow both in Bundesliga
-
Thanks @Martin-Futter
-
@richard-latimer 1.1ish for the 1.2 ones, 1.2 ish for the 1.58
-
Nothing for tomorrow
-
Jong Ajax called off due to weather no doubt as so many are at present. FHG's in Israel and Argentina for nice odds. There's something in this I'm sure there is.
As an aside, I know it's a tricky question with no real answer but starting odds of 1.27, 1.29 & 1.58 on the home team what kind of odds range am I looking at when the home teams go in 1 goal up at ht for the trade?
I didn't initially take this down as I was thinking to leave the bet going when inplay stats looked good for it. Initial results on what I'm looking at suggest this to be folly.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Not a great end to the day or for that matter the weekend.
In the all leagues tracker Ruzomberok drew a blank but then with only selected leagues both Ajax and Palestino joined them. 3 more to track tomorrow.
-
A solid day when you remove Malta and Serbia for which I now have. No liquidity in any case. They are certainly not on the selected leagues where I see this working very well already and they are not leagues I will be adding. Scottish 2 drew a blank but need to see more from those as price obtained was pretty good.
Hull seemed to fit all the criteria for a league which is used but confidence on this match was not as high for some reason and so it proved correct. I believe that while all individual criteria were met perhaps it was only just reached on certain things which pushed it out a little. 67% games had FHG to home team and 33% games had away team scoring FHG but this is not as high as many. I believe that total goals scored only amounts to 100 between both teams then home team would need to be 70%+
This is all just trying to replicate what I see and also understand reasons for confidence level where I am picking these up. I may be completely wrong but I see no other explanation.
Sheet updated with tomorrow's
I am continuing to work on team backs behind the scenes but nothing to share at present.
-
Of the 3 both Qatar selections won while France drew a blank. Sheet updated once more.
-
1st selection spoiled by red card, 2nd selection came in.
Sheet updated with 3x for tomorrow or only 2x if only looking at specific leagues.
-
Another great source of data and the likelihood of goals coming from sot in different locations.
-
Updated the sheet with 2 FHG selections to track tomorrow.
-
Nothing doing for tomorrow in terms of FHG
-
I've added data for FHG strategy mentioned above both for popular leagues and including all others. I'll update these daily as of now.
For the time being I'll leave it out of the members filters. There's enough of mine on there already and I'm not entirely happy with any as yet haha!
-
Anyone checking into the sheet as of now will be met with a bit of a blank canvas. I've kept all previous data to archive rather than bin as I have so erratically done in the past so I can draw from this later should the need arise. If anyone wants a copy let me know and I'll send it over no problem.
In the meantime...
I'm certainly not throwing the bath water out with the baby but the only way I'm going to realise long term success is to take what I have learned and explore other ideas as they arise.
These last strategies I worked on since June and only now was I beginning to see that without something else/without expanding there was no particular future. 6 months is a LOT longer than I have given stuff in the past so that in itself is a measure of success from my perspective.
LCS I'm continuing to keep on the back burner. With such low odds the strike rate needed is very high and every loss felt that much more sharply. Conversely I hate missing out on so many winning trades so not sure I could handle waiting and waiting for the price to rise haha!
I may well come back to this in the future.
FHG: Where I've already started putting my energy last couple of days. A FHG system/strat I have been aware of for a time now (although suggested use is different to what I'm doing) which I am attempting to replicate using BTC stats and also to see if additional leagues can be added (if so which ones).
I won't say where I found this or give the name of it out of consideration for Ryan and co but I'm using current season only, last 20 games for each team rather than 10 and will only be looking at teams after they have played 3 home games and the away have played the same amount of away games.
I'll add data for this a little later today.
Backing team A or team B. I'm going to continue looking at this but using full game stats rather than just H1. Also try and think about xG (goal expectancy) at HT so the option is either trade out or stay in for the 2nd half depending on sot and where in particular these shots on target came from in respect of distance and positioning to the goal. Where this data is not available it will be a case of trade out as per normal I think.
Take a look at this link for an idea of what I mean https://statsbomb.com/2016/04/explaining-and-training-shot-quality/
But as is my want and my new favourite word of the moment.....everything is fluid right now!
-
Totally missed the Croton game today. Anyone tell me what the price was to lay them at HT when 0-1 down?
I'm guessing was about 3.0 to back pre-match?!
