Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@stuart-capstick said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Forgive me if you already do this, but would it not reduce your losses considerably if you queued for a lower price?
Overs prices come in considerably in the first 10 mins. Even draw prices move a lot in the first 10 mins.
Your strike rate is very high, but with lower lay price you could still be profitable even if you miss the odd game where there is an early goal (or two)

It's not something I've looked into because I really am trying to keep it simple and don't want to be in front of the screen when I'm trying to sort my love life out plus house move etc.....I will bear it in mind but the average odds I collect should be more than enough to profit well.

The only reason I haven't made as much as I'd like is because it's a work in progress. I could either sit around tracking and making no money at all or I can earn while I learn. Choosing to do the latter.

Stuart Capstick

Forgive me if you already do this, but would it not reduce your losses considerably if you queued for a lower price?
Overs prices come in considerably in the first 10 mins. Even draw prices move a lot in the first 10 mins.
Your strike rate is very high, but with lower lay price you could still be profitable even if you miss the odd game where there is an early goal (or two)

Richard Latimer

All I have done is literally take out some of the bigger numbers which I have done in all other areas of this system.

Low numbers don't work and big big numbers flatter to deceive.

A return to the mean being imminent unless you're talking Norway, Iceland or Singapore.

Richard Latimer

90% is great by the way.

The struggling aspect is in 75% this month so far.

We'll see how it works out from here.

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

If you have found something that is hitting 98+% then it really must be down to back-fitting. I’ve been guilty in the past of using my data to do the same and it just doesn’t stack up going forward, as you’ve found out often. What if it drops off to 94% for 100 trades - will it then be tinkered again? And also of your system is hitting 90+% and still struggling badly then I think that risk/reward ratio would be a major red flag!

It's a statistical anomaly for sure bit I've only looked at what's logical. I don't expect it to continue like that.

Plus I'm still tracking everything that's been struggling.

? Offline

If you have found something that is hitting 98+% then it really must be down to back-fitting. I’ve been guilty in the past of using my data to do the same and it just doesn’t stack up going forward, as you’ve found out often. What if it drops off to 94% for 100 trades - will it then be tinkered again? And also of your system is hitting 90+% and still struggling badly then I think that risk/reward ratio would be a major red flag!

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

@richard-latimer it was there. I took it. I’m not proud

I think if you saw something that took your 91-92% system that was currently struggling badly.....to a 98% system with almost the exact same profit and less games you'd probably do the same as me

John Folan

@richard-latimer it was there. I took it. I’m not proud

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Haha nope......reject that. Makes no sense to keep throwing money at something when you notice a major potential flaw!

John Folan

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Richard Latimer

Full update:

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All went very badly wrong after the last but with the exciting revelation of my latest findings detailed on the football thread I expect normal service to resume sooner rather than later.