Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Let's see what happens with these then. Lay Over 1.5 in purple/Lay Under 1.5 in blue:

Richard Latimer

Here's the full update from May. So so close before last lot of overs stuffed it all!

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

Martin

@Richard-Latimer the perils of mobile betting!

Richard Latimer

In better news, my overs lays still going very strong. Another 50/50 day and very decent profit.

Richard Latimer

Averted a complete disaster today so it was only a mini one! My lock screen failed and I pocket bet around £150 by accident on one market after I'd already bloody won the trade.

Noticed in time but as you do, panic sets in and probably could have come closer to break even than I ultimately did. The head doesn't think straight in situations like that though. All I saw was liability of around £150 with my balance reduced by almost half. Cashed immediately but then had a crazy number of unmatched bets I needed to cancel before they got matched. Unfortunately didn't catch them all so instead of making £7 on the 1st I lost £15 (£22 swing).

In this instance I added £30 to my bank for the first time in months as I didn't want to take the hit on my betting bank for something which wasn't a mistake in the normal way you would consider.

I will certainly not get stung like that again!!!

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5 in blue/Lay over 1.5 in purple:

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:

Lay Under 1.5:

Finished the month with a much needed win. 1-1

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

Richard Latimer

More standard unders lays today. Lay Under 1.5:

Richard Latimer

This isn't just a flash in the pan either. I have data going back to last April now. It explains why every time I seemingly make a mistake I get burnt haha!

Richard Latimer

3/3 as I posted on the football thread but more than that I think the unders system which has appeared out of nowhere from my almost selections needs a look at on it's own. Below is just the ones I've got on (I also missed a certified qualifier in Iceland and, in the interests of transparency, another low odds loser in Iceland) but as I hit more failures on the overs more unders are created:

58% on ave lay odds of 1.3
+5.59 points but the s/r has enabled a much higher staking on these than people would think to the point where one win is like 3x wins on the overs and one loss is generally 1/3 or less than a loss on the overs.

S/r on the overs has been pitiful (although I'm pretty confident I know how to correct that moving forward) and I'm down by a fair wack this month....yet......this morning.......new bank high £495.50

Richard Latimer

For tomorrow. Lay Under 1.5 in blue/Lay Over 1.5 in purple:

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:

Lay Under 1.5:

No amber warning signs on any of these. Doesn't mean they won't lose. Just means I won't be angry with myself if they do haha!

3/3

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

No amber warning signs on any of these. Doesn't mean they won't lose. Just means I won't be angry with myself if they do haha!

Richard Latimer

So every day I'm getting closer and closer to what will be a very workable product. Where the only tweaks come from a small combination of the basic scoring/conceding stats.

There are no more stats I intend to look at. I'm looking at enough as is.

The tweaks are getting less but the margins are getting finer.

After last night's debacle in Iceland I did what I always do. Sit down and see what, if anything, went wrong. It was easy to see pretty quickly and it came from me being tired and trying to find a way to streamline my selection process easier.

I'd highlighted low/high figures in conditional formatting but hadn't taken into account a) the excluded numbers were still being counted in this so it skewed what I was looking at and b) the shade of green on display was already showing it to be a high number.

If this is confusing then basically I missed that I was looking at a bit of a statistical outlier (unusually high scoring figures for both home AND away). Not used that word in a while haha!

I hate those things as many will mock me for!

Sometimes the simplest solutions come in the easiest form. I simply need to go through the stats in question and put Amber (warning so to speak) in the applicable cells. Would have definitely saved money last night and found another potential over lay.

Well it found a potential over lay for if the situation comes up again but it didn't help my bank this time.

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:

Lay Under 1.5:

1-2

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

Richard Latimer

It actually shows how bad my overs have performed in May (or how badly i have managed them) that my unders (1.5 over lays) have gone 50/50 and I'm still only around one and a bit points up in May.

I still have every confidence.