Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

2 Selections in Iceland tomorrow

Odds currently rubbish. Don't think either likely to trade as high as 1.2.

2nd half goals been nice on these

Lazy git

That's harsh haha

Richard Latimer

No overs tomorrow

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

2 Selections in Iceland tomorrow

Odds currently rubbish. Don't think either likely to trade as high as 1.2.

2nd half goals been nice on these

Lazy git

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Sheet updated. Game starting in Peru in 15 minutes.

The almost never spotted clean sweep rears it's head today and wasn't Paraguay easy once more for those odds. I got 1.51.

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated. Game starting in Peru in 15 minutes.

Richard Latimer

As for the sides I'm going to have to let that go FOR NOW AT LEAST, as I'm jetting off to Turkey on Wed for 10 days and it is literally the last thing I need to be doing right now.

Richard Latimer

Today was going very well until Finland and Norway Obos. In fairness Finland is still in the black so no reason to throw that one away as is. Norway Obos though is now in deficit and so needs a measure of caution.

I'm thinking that perhaps those summer leagues in any kind of deficit when the league is done for a year can be placed on the exclude list and removed from filtered. Should they make a comeback they can be added again easy enough but previous experience has shown that so far once they're gone they don't come back so easy.

Richard Latimer

So I've added countries and leagues to contrarian selections. Interesting to see how that turns out. Time for bed now haha!

Richard Latimer

Feel I need to track countries for these potential lays as well. Some very good results once more but some leagues the favourite just won very easily.

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated for tomorrow. It's my 2nd favourite league coming up at midnight. Ecuador.

Richard Latimer

Putting aside the latest and greatest new idea for a 2nd, there were only 2 filtered selections for over 1.5 bothof which won easily enough. Paraguay again at very decent odds. Unfortunately due to Betfairs constant cocking around with start times and suspending matches early/not going inplay etc....I missed the China game.

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Only 2nd day but with such positive initial results it would be a crime not to share what I have so far. Added to sheet under tab titled the Contrarian.

So what's the filters for this. My interest is piqued.

In it's raw form it's simply percentage clean sheets more than opp + 2 goals or more higher than opp totalling 40%+. Derived from looking for winners and then realising how badly they appeared to be doing when the stats hit a certain number and went higher.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Only 2nd day but with such positive initial results it would be a crime not to share what I have so far. Added to sheet under tab titled the Contrarian.

So what's the filters for this. My interest is piqued.

Richard Latimer

Only 2nd day but with such positive initial results it would be a crime not to share what I have so far. Added to sheet under tab titled the Contrarian.

Ryan

@richard-latimer Excused, I make enough typos lol

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Positive results continued into the night with these. I'll have to incorporate them on to the sheet so people can see what I'm seeing if it continues.

16 winners, 8 losses.
Only 2 of the losers have come in around evens, the rest have been lower, way lower and even lower still.

Was a 17th which also won but from what I could see there was little liquidity in Panama.

Biggest problem I can see at the moment is how to reduce such a mammoth list of qualifying selections. These don't even rely on current season data as all I want to do is exploit the reason odds are so short rather than for a teams winning trend to continue.

Excuse typos haha

Richard Latimer

Positive results continued into the night with these. I'll have to incorporate them on to the sheet so people can see what I'm seeing if it continues.

16 winners, 8, 8 losses.
Only 2 of the losers have come in around evens, the rest have been lower, way lower and even lower still.

Was a 17th which also won but from what I could see there was little liquidity in Panama.

Biggest problem I can see at the moment is how to reduce such a mammoth list of qualifying selections. These don't even rely on current season data as all I want to did is exploit the reason odds are so short rather than for a a teams winning trend to continue.

Ryan

@simon Ahaha it did start out like a joke didn't it? I was thinking that when I typed it out

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@simon I’ll get these - how many corners does it take to lead to a goal?

Can't remember the exact but I know it averages 1 in 10 games.

? Offline

@ryan-carruthers sounds like the start of a joke! I can’t remeber exactly......but lots haha!