Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Just having a look at certain filters again and while they are pretty mcuh set now it's interesting to note that when stats for goals for and against on both sides hit 85% pretty much any league across the world so far has been a shoe in for over 1.5.
Data on unfiltered leagues for this so far reads 25 wins, 1 loss. (excluding Swiss Super League which I fully expect to be back in filtered leagues soon.)
People may think this is a little knee jerk but with those kind of stats and a decent chunk of logic behind it I can't overlook. So while the leagues themselves may be unfiltered if they hit 85% goals for and against for both teams it won't matter until I see any reason why it should.
This is a good 65 points profit!
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Just having a look at certain filters again and while they are pretty mcuh set now it's interesting to note that when stats for goals for and against on both sides hit 85% pretty much any league across the world so far has been a shoe in for over 1.5.
Data on unfiltered leagues for this so far reads 25 wins, 1 loss. (excluding Swiss Super League which I fully expect to be back in filtered leagues soon.)
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
A couple of filtered tomorrow and a chance for N Ireland to get another W on the board.
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February strikes. 2 Losses in Netherlands which is odd as same thing happened last year. However Feb still showing around 10% yield profit so it's doing ok.
The same day Swiss Super League had a blip as well. Luckily this is still on the side lines but the re-introduction of that league took a blow for sure.
So strange when there have been not many more than 30 losses from over 700 selections how I've managed to pick 6 in 39 selections.
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Shame about Laliga yesterday but nevermind. That league has almost no chance of being anywhere close to filtered come March so with that in mind it makes no logical sense to carry on with it for the time being. Another new rule I suppose. I continue on so as not to fall foul of short term changes in leagues but only up to a point of no return where they can't really get back for the next month.
Amazing to see how this has developed and hopefully all the work I've put in over the year will finallystart pay dividends very soon. It's only now I see what a massive project I have taken on.
Almost 1500 selections on the board across all leagues and even now there are leagues that have moved up and down like Poland Ekstraklasa. Thankfully my decision not to follow short term changes has proved successful there afre no sooner than back in to filtered range they are right back out again for time being.
I have updated todays selections and working on filtered now. Nothing until the Dutch leagues start.
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Made a mistake and removed Vallecano earlier as Laliga now under 80% s/r. However as already covered I'll keep going with a league until the end of a month and only change then to allow for short term changes.
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Back in the A-League early doors (06:35). Another 3 after that in the evening.
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No filtered today
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Didn't think Lausanne would reach 1.2 pre kick-off but it did and was another easy winner.
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Not updated filtered yet but one in swiss challenge later.
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Nothing tomorrow
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Only the 1 filtered tomorrow although Ekstraklasa coming back into contention soon the way it stands.
Didn't get there on the odds today.
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Only the 1 filtered tomorrow although Ekstraklasa coming back into contention soon the way it stands.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Did update yesterday but forgot to post that I'd updated. If you're following already I'm sure you already know how it goes.
Sweep today on 5 filtered selections.
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6 potentials on the filtered side for Saturday. 3 more which are included in table so far but results aren't there yet in these leagues.
Portugal Primeira
Wales
Arg Primeira B Nacional -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Busy Friday with 7 potentials on the filtered side (5 being from Netherlands).
In the end I got 4 of them and all won although how I miissed the one loser in Germany I'm not sure. For the filtered it was a break even day.
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Busy Friday with 7 potentials on the filtered side (5 being from Netherlands).
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@lee-woodman BLOODY ELL that's mental!!
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@lee-woodman said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Are you trading these or 'set and forget'?
The Swiss Super league does have an great SR based on the 4 criteria of 65% H/A scored and conceded. Over 713 games from 2013 to 2018 there were just 31 which were under 2 goals, giving a S/R of 95.65%. If you got in on 20' then you'd have 31 losing trades and 303 winning trades
Crikey Lee! That’s some stat
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@lee-woodman said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I’ve got a database in excel with last 5 seasons covering most leagues. I’ve not filtered beyond the 4 criteria, SR% could actually go down if filtered further, such is the nature of having so few negative results
Most interesting. With that you could add the individual numbers together to get a total ie 67%, 81%, 90% and 80% would be 318. This is another one of my filters 305+). Essentially other than the combined over 1.5 results being over 80% s/r then this could potentially offer me some of the much needed back testing i've been after for a while.
Would you be able to send me a copy of this database please?
