Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

Not an opinion. I'm following the numbers. If I'd carried on in Bundesliga 2 for example I would have lost loads even at small stakes!

Richard Latimer

Lovely high odds winner in Paraguay

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Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

Richard Latimer

Wasn't expecting another loss in the states. Despite being a very open league results have only been average there and odds often low or too low to get on.

Richard Latimer

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I only joined 10 days ago and have been impressed by your topic. To be successful in the over 1.5 market you need to beat the rate indicated by the odds value by 10% consistently.

You quote the average odds as 1.3 which indicates a win rate of 76.9% so to be successful you need a win rate of 84.6%. Your current rate is 79.9%.

For the first 250 investments up to 29th March you had a win rate of 83.6% leading to a profit of over 200 pounds.

You have obviously been changing the system and it maybe worth checking if you made a change around the end of March that has caused you a problen?

Thanks Tom. It's not so much anything per se that has caused me a problem other than some leagues being way too inconsistent. You only find this out after the fact. My filtered leagues which are being streamlined as I go, shows almost an 85% s/r.

Richard Latimer

Let down in Bolivia but still a small profit. Quite a bit coming up in MLS shortly.

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I only joined 10 days ago and have been impressed by your topic. To be successful in the over 1.5 market you need to beat the rate indicated by the odds value by 10% consistently.

You quote the average odds as 1.3 which indicates a win rate of 76.9% so to be successful you need a win rate of 84.6%. Your current rate is 79.9%.

For the first 250 investments up to 29th March you had a win rate of 83.6% leading to a profit of over 200 pounds.

You have obviously been changing the system and it maybe worth checking if you made a change around the end of March that has caused you a problen?

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated. Nothing until half 12 in China.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Sheet has been updated for a while but Paraguay game starting in just under an hour.

Win streak in Paraguay had to come to an end sooner or later.

Richard Latimer

Sheet has been updated for a while but Paraguay game starting in just under an hour.

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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Good for the system but no good for my wallet. Betfair had the Chinese game down as a 13:35 start. Should have double checked as 12:35 is normal time. Anyway, long and short I missed it haha!

Betfair doing this a lot recently,I’ve been caught out myself.

Richard Latimer

Good for the system but no good for my wallet. Betfair had the Chinese game down as a 13:35 start. Should have double checked as 12:35 is normal time. Anyway, long and short I missed it haha!

Richard Latimer

Was just the one today. 1 selection, 1 win. 1 tomorrow in China. Updating now.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer This is ticking along nicely!!

Thanks @Ryan-Carruthers. Already stuck with it far longer than I've ever stuck with any system/strategy until now. Will be a real milestone when I hit 1,000 bets.

Trick will be to turn profit from the sheet into real life profit and I must be getting closer.

Ryan

@richard-latimer This is ticking along nicely!!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

That's done again now. Next match in Finland @ 16:30

Odds too low so just the win in Paraguay. Updating for tomorrow now.

Richard Latimer

That's done again now. Next match in Finland @ 16:30

Richard Latimer

I did update the damn thing but can't see it anymore. Hope it was on there at least temporarily for the above game. Will have to do it again now.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Sheet updated. Game in Paraguay currently 0-0.

Paraguay never fails to amaze. If you'd been watching that game no team was going to score in a million years!!

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated. Game in Paraguay currently 0-0.