Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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So as is obvious from the above I've been looking closely at criteria's 5 through 8 on the unders for a while. First I took 6 and 7 which apply to number of away goals scored essentially and took this number lower than 5 and 8. A few outliers crept above 50 and these seemed to perform poorly as far as unders concerned. It was an easy modify anyway as filters easily enough changed.
Aside from certain leagues being poo though it just doesn't appear to be enough.
Bahia had 3 of the 4 criteria at 40% meaning that 2 goals for each team was more than possible.
After looking good for 30 minutes Atletico & Fluminense went on a goal spree in that game and criteria's 5 & 8 were 40% & 60% respectively there (this is home scored/away conceded 2 or more goals so a high chance of home scoring 2+ (they ended up with 5 I think).
This has been a common factor when these 2 criteria have for example 1 @ 40%+ & 1 @ 50%+ with 5 wins to the 4 losses so I've taken the decision to remove.
It makes things far more complicated than the overs and means each day of fixtures has a bit of working out to get through before simply saying that they all qualify.......but needs must!
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Bahia one to miss. An outlier where criteria's 5 through 7 all read 40+. This has never happened before since I started tracking these criteria and it shows as some one off in a system where you don't want goals.
No help for today but it's something to take from this car crash!
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FFS Brazil one to miss after tonight!
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After the s**t show this morning with J-league 2 and then Thailand I was in 2 minds whether to bother with Norway unders given I had no data. Glad I rolled the dice there.
Has to be caution but also need to follow what has made money previously I guess.
Left Kongsvinger over alone as criteria's 5-8 only totalled 300 on the nose and record isn't so good when that happens. Winner but no regrets here.
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J-league 2 wildly inconsistent....... unders/overs it doesn't matter which!
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Columbia went as planned as did MLS. Richmond Kickers scored a late goal to win in the overs there.
Unfortunately.......2 overs losses on the bounce in J-league 2 mean I've pretty much had it with that league as far as the overs concerned. Not excluded yet as still not far enough in the red but I imagine it's a matter of time.
Unders there still up for debate.
Incredibly frustrating as turning profit into break even but the more data I can collect the more accurate results should be in the end.
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Day ends well as Red Bulls score an equaliser in MLS game shortly after ht.
New day begins at midnight with Richmond Kickers on the over.
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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Wow, watching tonights Paraguay game. Thought I'd seen negative but this takes the cake. Playing it back to the keeper from corner flag ffs!!
Goal, out of nowhere haha!! This game just has to be fixed.....and I don't say that a lot.
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Wow, watching tonights Paraguay game. Thought I'd seen negative but this takes the cake. Playing it back to the keeper from corner flag ffs!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Malaysia back in black while Superettan just keeps on losing. 4 matches and currently 4 losses.
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Cuenca under stops the rot but unfortunately that's the only one for today. A mixture of early season, poorly performing leagues and games not going inplay means there's not many overs today either.
Malaysia which had been on the good list until yesterday for the Super League is now ever so slightly in the red. Odds are usually quite low so it takes a while to build the profit there. Todays game no different so may not even get it at 1.2.
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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Goal in Paraguay already. Under coming up in Ecuador at 2am.
Sheet updated for unders now.
Had to happen in the end. Paraguayan over loses.
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Goal in Paraguay already. Under coming up in Ecuador at 2am.
Sheet updated for unders now.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
So far analysis shows no reason to get rid of any playoff games in the unders. Mores the point to keep excluding Mexico and Venezuela haha!
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Currently going through the analysis of playoff games in the unders but an over coming up in Paraguay shortly so sheet updated for that.
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Venezuela last night was a bust while the Irish games didn't qualify due to odds or not going inplay. Paraguay keeps on giving.
As for the unders I need to a bit more analysis on playoff games and other than that I think Venezuela could be one to avoid moving forward.
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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Decided to take the under in Venezuela. Stats look good. Let's see how it goes!
Hmmm.......not a great start
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Decided to take the under in Venezuela. Stats look good. Let's see how it goes!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Sheet updated for tomorrow.
4 overs, 2 of which are in largely untested Ireland Div 1.
1 under overnight in Venezuela which I'll probably leave well enough alone as long as that league isn't in profit.
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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Regardless of any of that there's 3 more unders going overnight. One is in Peru and right now I'm not sure if this league is in profit or not depending on where I go with certain exclusions.
Sheet updated.
Columbia odds too low but the other 2 won.
