Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Bit of time now so I'll post up todays selections as per spreadsheet:

On the Comeback Trail - Lay opposition if opposition goes ahead at any time. Up to around 86 mins.

14:00 K. Almaty - Kazakhstan
14:00 FC Astana - Kazakhstan
17:00 Zalgiris - Lithuania
20:00 Osasuna - Spain

Setting the Pace - Expected to score first so if 0-0 at HT and odds have risen, back to win.

14:00 FC Astana
18:00 Brondby - Denmark
18:45 Shakhtyor Soligorsk - Belarus
19:45 Dundalk - Ireland

I will remove all liability as soon as expected goal comes and then assess from there but unless it's a late late late goal I will be out before FT.

Lay Draw HT - Only if 0-0 or 1-1.

23:15 Figueirense - Brasil

Self explanatory. As soon as expected goal comes I will remove all liability and then green up completely unless one side encounter with favourite winning. Regardless I will be out before FT again unless the goal comes late late late into injury time.

There is no exit point in case of no goals or the wrong goals.

2 qualifiers. 1 in Lithuania where Zalgiris went behind before equalizing. Now Figueirense match just finishing with profit for LTD long ago secured after an early 2nd half goal.

Richard Latimer

Bit of time now so I'll post up todays selections as per spreadsheet:

On the Comeback Trail - Lay opposition if opposition goes ahead at any time. Up to around 86 mins.

14:00 K. Almaty - Kazakhstan
14:00 FC Astana - Kazakhstan
17:00 Zalgiris - Lithuania
20:00 Osasuna - Spain

Setting the Pace - Expected to score first so if 0-0 at HT and odds have risen, back to win.

14:00 FC Astana
18:00 Brondby - Denmark
18:45 Shakhtyor Soligorsk - Belarus
19:45 Dundalk - Ireland

I will remove all liability as soon as expected goal comes and then assess from there but unless it's a late late late goal I will be out before FT.

Lay Draw HT - Only if 0-0 or 1-1.

23:15 Figueirense - Brasil

Self explanatory. As soon as expected goal comes I will remove all liability and then green up completely unless one side encounter with favourite winning. Regardless I will be out before FT again unless the goal comes late late late into injury time.

There is no exit point in case of no goals or the wrong goals.

Richard Latimer

Sheet all updated with tomorrows. If anyone has any questions please ask.

Richard Latimer

Didn't post today but as always the selections were up on sheet. Got good green on Club Africain as they went a man up and subsequently 1-0 up. Zamalek took the lead and I removed liability. Unfortunately they conceded less than 10 minutes later and couldn't find a winner so break even there.

Richard Latimer

No time ro post selections but it's all on sheet. First game 11.00. South Korea.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Not masses on today.

LTD HT

Karvina vs Jihlava - Czech Rep.
Dalkurd vs Orgryte

Prime for a comeback should they concede first

Malmo

Back at HT if still 0-0

Malmo

From now on as soon as a goal goes for providing I can get to a computer or phone I think the first thing I will do is remove all liability. This would be seem to be what all the pros would do. Having a position of green turn red seems more psychologically damaging than a position of green turn to break even.

So I took out liability at 1-1 and then as soon as the 2nd went in cashed out.

Richard Latimer

Not masses on today.

LTD HT

Karvina vs Jihlava - Czech Rep.
Dalkurd vs Orgryte

Prime for a comeback should they concede first

Malmo

Back at HT if still 0-0

Malmo

From now on as soon as a goal goes for providing I can get to a computer or phone I think the first thing I will do is remove all liability. This would be seem to be what all the pros would do. Having a position of green turn red seems more psychologically damaging than a position of green turn to break even.

Richard Latimer

Great day other than Skeid. I initiallly got out of Penarol at after they equalised and then conceded just before HT. I then remembered how I'd seen potential results were much better if you rode out a few bumps and went back in around 56-60 mins. A late late equaliser there to make it 2-2 finished the day off nicely:

Aarau - Backed at 0-0, cashed at 1-0
Skeid - LTD, no goal, loss
Osijek - Layed Zapresic at 0-1, cashed at 2-1
Deportivo Laferrere - LTD, cashed at 1-0
Inter - Backed at 0-0, cashed at 1-0 on 70 mins
Hafnarfjordur - Layed Fylkir at 1-0, cashed at HT 1-1
Penarol - Layed Progresso at 0-1, went minor red at HT 1-2, back in around 56-60mins, cashed at 2-2 94th min

Richard Latimer

I'm back in the saddle. Sort of.

Sheet updated with potentials. Any questions, please ask.

Richard Latimer

Got to take a break tomorrow and potentially Sunday as at a wedding all day. Won't be at my best Sunday either I doubt haha!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Sheet updated with a few potentials for tomorrow.

Draw lays - Lay if 0-0 or 1-1 @ HT, trade out after a goal

On The Comeback Trail - Lay ELO underdog if they take the lead. Trade out after a goal or leave trade to run until around 75-80 mins. Less so for away favourites as these seem more susceptible. If next goal goes against double down on initial lay. If no further goals or another against suck it up and move on.

Setting The Pace - Back ELO favourite @ HT provided still 0-0 and initial pre kick-off odds have risen. Trade out at 1-0 or leave to run for a bit. Again play it safer with away favourites. If no goals or goal goes against suck it up and move on.

100% on the 4 that qualifiied today

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated with a few potentials for tomorrow.

Draw lays - Lay if 0-0 or 1-1 @ HT, trade out after a goal

On The Comeback Trail - Lay ELO underdog if they take the lead. Trade out after a goal or leave trade to run until around 75-80 mins. Less so for away favourites as these seem more susceptible. If next goal goes against double down on initial lay. If no further goals or another against suck it up and move on.

Setting The Pace - Back ELO favourite @ HT provided still 0-0 and initial pre kick-off odds have risen. Trade out at 1-0 or leave to run for a bit. Again play it safer with away favourites. If no goals or goal goes against suck it up and move on.

Richard Latimer

A BIG FAT NOTHING for tomorrow. There's overnighters but I'm not staying up to trade those.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Todays incredibly short list:

If opponent takes the lead lay opponent. Double down on a 2nd goal going against. If no further goals or another goal to opponent suck it up and move on. Trade out when green (or leave in untiil later in the game - just not too late.

Maribor - Slovenia
Vitebsk - Belarus
Young Boys - Switzerland

If 0-0 @ HT and odds have risen back teams below. Trade out for green or leave for a bit and trade out later.

Vitebsk
Dinamo Bucharest - Romania

I think I made a bit of a mistake on Dinamo Bucharest in as much as thinking they had something to play for. They are at the top of their relegation round table 15 points clear of relegation and with only 3 games left. When I looked last night I saw it only as them being at the top of the league by only a few points. Oh well.

Young Boys didn't need to win clearly but didn't think they'd get stomped 4-1!

Poor day

Richard Latimer

Todays incredibly short list:

If opponent takes the lead lay opponent. Double down on a 2nd goal going against. If no further goals or another goal to opponent suck it up and move on. Trade out when green (or leave in untiil later in the game - just not too late.

Maribor - Slovenia
Vitebsk - Belarus
Young Boys - Switzerland

If 0-0 @ HT and odds have risen back teams below. Trade out for green or leave for a bit and trade out later.

Vitebsk
Dinamo Bucharest - Romania

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Sheet updated with today's potentials.

Ltd ht if 0-0 or 1-1. Only match in Algeria.

One match in Lithuania to either back home if 0-0 @ ht providing odds increased from kick-off or lay away should they take the lead.

Trade out as and when but don't take excess risk for a couple more ticks as I have been so often prone to doing.

One qualifier in Lithuania. In at 0-1. Out at ht 1-1. Missed a winner in Romania too though for some reason even though I had listed it as a potential.

A few today which are all updated on sheet. Anyone has questions please ask.

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated with today's potentials.

Ltd ht if 0-0 or 1-1. Only match in Algeria.

One match in Lithuania to either back home if 0-0 @ ht providing odds increased from kick-off or lay away should they take the lead.

Trade out as and when but don't take excess risk for a couple more ticks as I have been so often prone to doing.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

An interesting one today is that Midtjylland are and ELO favourite yet distinct underdog and have a comeback rating of 82. If Brondby take the lead it will be a cheap lay.

Well midtjylland took the lead. In fact just the one qualifier today which was back at ht in Romania.

Richard Latimer

An interesting one today is that Midtjylland are and ELO favourite yet distinct underdog and have a comeback rating of 82. If Brondby take the lead it will be a cheap lay.

Richard Latimer

3 went behind today and 2 came back, trouble is I was indisposed thanks to a family incident and Torino ended up getting battered! Juve made things look a little nicer.

After missing out on so many recently I started thinking about how I could I find an angle to trade when it was still goalless.

By combining ELO and ratings for first to score I came up with a list (some were duplicates of the potential lays) to back at HT if still 0-0 provided the odds had risen from kick off. Other than Stjarnan it worked very well.

Milan won easily enough, Malmo won and Beer Sheva scored late on too. Only blot was once again Stjarnan in Iceland who defied the inplay stats massively!