Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Couldn't resist!
Essentially it's what I've been doing over on the facebook page so if you've been following you'll know the deal by now.
There's official and monitored and the whole damn thing is fluid right now although I'm getting closer to what I feel will be the final product.
In any case it's all detailed on the attached sheet:
Will update for tomorrow asap
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
After a pisspoor day in the away lays yesterday and this morning I need to be sensible. Using mid stake for Kazak game even though odds in low bracket.
In fact strike that. When I first started to trade these in reality my thought was aggressive aggressive aggressive. Would go up and down while overs went up slower and more consistently.
They have actually exceeded my expectations and I think I need to be just a tiny bit more sensible.
If I had done that yesterday then the low odds point of Argentina and high odds point of South Korea would have been avoided very simply.
In short it's a low odds point in Kazakhstan and I'm leaving it completely.
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All league appear to have their ideal pricepoint. Certainly for the stats I am using at any rate.
I actually feel far more comfortable when I've found that pricepoint than when they all seem to be doing ok. Only takes one night to find a couple on the bounce.
Argentina I had that price point but a quick delve showed that actually anything under 4.0 had lost prior to yesterday. And so the trend continued.
Then it was Ulsan's turn. Bad enough as almost invariably any lay I put on overnight suffers a price reduction in just 5-6 hours or less. It is hard to get value. At any rate Ulsan lost 1-2 at odds that should have been attainable @5.3 and low and behold. Yes, this is the highest qualifying price I've seen since tracking began in that league.
The K League appears to operate better at lower odds.
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After another pisspoor start on the overs in April I've just about made it back in to profit. Let's see what today brings:
The away lays on the other hand took a massive hit yesterday so while both are technically in profit for April that profit is down substantially there.
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Lay Away:
ITA 4.7+
COS 5+
COL 5.1+
MEX 5+Nothing under 2.62 and nothing over 11.0
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Lay Under 1.5:
GER 7.2-8.4
SPA 7.2-11.0
ENG 4.4-11.0
FRA 5.8-7.4
BRA 3.65 Max
MEX 7.2-11.0
USA 5.5-11.0Nothing under 3.15 and nothing over 11.0
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Lay Away:
ARG must be 3.5 or more
Remainder 2.62+ -
Lay Under 1.5:
Need 3.15-11.0 price other than NET which is 5.1-6.0.
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One over in the Saudi league this evening posted in the competition thread. Ended 2-0.
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Away Lays:
None of these likely based on current odds. All need to come out to around 5's to lay
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Lay Under 1.5:
For ECU I'm looking for a min price of 3.85 and for MEX it's min 4.0
This isn't just a lay price exactly either. It's more of a look at the market and garner what's potentially achievable price depending on liquidity etc...
Mexico will be difficult as it's a 4am kickoff. Just need to do my best with prices on that one. -
Unders Lays:
Lay Aways:
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Sweep across all 5 selections today
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Lay Away:
Bit concerned about Netanya as to this point all Israeli selections have had higher odds. May do the same as last night and still use mid range stake.
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Lay Under 1.5:
Min price 3.8
Max price on Maccabi Tel Aviv 7.4 -
And 8/9 on the away lays. (should have been 7/8)
Overall a good weekend.
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Went 6/7 on the overs:
Given my good luck on the South Korean game and slight nervousness at the low odds in Peru I decided to to go with only the mid range stake.
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Posting a mid weekend update on the away lays. I got very lucky in that Gangwon didn't lose to Gwangju despite the price falling below my threshold. The problem with early morning games. I can't be up that early and be up that late for the overnighters in Mexico.
Eventually they will need to be automated. I also got lucky in Croatia where I momentarily forgot my minimum odds in Croatia and ended up laying Istra @ 2.64. They promptyl went 0-2 down so I decided to chalk it up as a loss and another learning curve. Then they got one back immediately. I was still loathe to take over 50% loss on smallish odds so left it. they levelled it up and at that point I could have traded out for a small loss. Not believing there would be another goal before ht I left it to see if a) they got another or b) the price went back to 2.64. B happened just before HT so I got out as if nothing had happened.
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Away Lays:
CRO 3.1+
ITA 4.7+
MEX 5+
COS 5+
SWI 4.3+Nothing below 2.62, nothing above 11.0
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I've posted my overs in the competition thread. No time to duplicate this weekend.
I won't be doing the amber highlighted trade for real though.
