Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Here we go again!

It's not what I would have chosen to get the ball rolling again but all stats well within range to the extent the result won't influence any decision after the fact.

Also UAE has yet to give me a loss (jinx).

Wasl seemed to be the dominant force last season but have started in less than impressive form. If this system was about most recent form then Wahda look the far more likely to win. However, I'm going with what has worked since Feb so that's just that.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

I'm not about to do this now either (burnt trying this too early in the past) but it looks to me as if a very good system of backing the home underdog (mostly the underdog anyway) could be found in using all the fixtures I exclude from raw data on my filter.

Currently 58% s/r with average odds around 3.5 I reckon. Certainly well over 3.0 (I only have the published lay prices as well as those I was able to obtain myself).

I totally meant 42% (actually 43%). Just forgot to flip around what I was looking for. Still seems very healthy.

Richard Latimer

I thought there may be a selection or two tomorrow but alas, it is unlikely.

Sat not likely either.

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

You'll know for sure in the next month or so.

Richard Latimer

I've been tracking these since feb so prob not relevant then.

Stuart Capstick

@Alex-Rendell said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Richard-Latimer you don't see a graph like that very often!! I guess that makes the recent short-term blip harder to swallow, as it's been performing so consistently over a relatively decent period?

This may or may not be relevant but it's worth mentioning that goal numbers/averages are well down so far this month in a significant number of major leagues - not sure if this at all relates to your recent results but it may help to partly explain what's gone on lately!

Prior to this month, averages had been higher than average.

Regression to the mean.

Richard Latimer

I'm not about to do this now either (burnt trying this too early in the past) but it looks to me as if a very good system of backing the home underdog (mostly the underdog anyway) could be found in using all the fixtures I exclude from raw data on my filter.

Currently 58% s/r with average odds around 3.5 I reckon. Certainly well over 3.0 (I only have the published lay prices as well as those I was able to obtain myself).

Richard Latimer

@Alex-Rendell It probably does because the away team are knocking on the door and just not scoring.

So they're either getting hit against the run of play or the match is grinding to a boring 1-0.

Also explains why my over 1.5 system is suffering a simillar blip although that's not ready to go yet anyway.

Alex Rendell

@Richard-Latimer you don't see a graph like that very often!! I guess that makes the recent short-term blip harder to swallow, as it's been performing so consistently over a relatively decent period?

This may or may not be relevant but it's worth mentioning that goal numbers/averages are well down so far this month in a significant number of major leagues - not sure if this at all relates to your recent results but it may help to partly explain what's gone on lately!

Matt Wood

@Richard-Latimer That is a very nice looking graph! I think Stuart mentioned it a while back, looks like you might really be on to something here, softly softly until you see where the data takes you.

Richard Latimer

S/r's at different odds ranges for refined data (excluding negative leagues) are thus:

up to 3.5 83%
3.55-7.4 94%
7.6-11 - No loss as yet from 41 selections

As soon as things start up again I will be back in the saddle. I will probably be careful with those leagues that could easily flip into negative territory.

Richard Latimer

And speaking of excluded leagues - currently that number is 19. Conversely there are 55 leagues showing profit of 1pt or over. Another 3 showing profit under 1pt.

Within the profitable leagues there will be those that fall away due to liquidity and volume and where profitt is minimal some will probably go down as opposed to up. There also may be a few that come back in from the excluded 19 list.

Richard Latimer

Thought I'd use the time I have to look at a few positives and there are many:

Fair's fair, this is without excluded leagues but other than that this is the system graph. November is the first real drop.

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick ok maybe I should give serious consideration as to whether I want to bet in Colombia despite current overall results.....

https://colombiaone.com/2024/02/19/allegations-corruption-match-fixing-colombia-football-soccer/

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick thanks, that's good to hear. It could just be sods law that Nov is the first truly awful month where it makes no sense.

In fairness it's just over 12% which is nothing.

I've got a few irons in the fire now but overall keeping it nice and simple.

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

Good.

I think you are on to something with this one. It may be more slowburning than you would like, but it will be profitable long term IF you manage it properly.

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick in general the only real changes that happen now are leagues being scrapped because of lack of volume/liquidity. Or sometimes they are moved to just tracking like the UK leagues.

I have a while to decide on my next move given the break.

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

Either:

Paper trade for the rest of the month. If your system is viable, then what does a few missed weeks matter?

Or

Carry on with half stakes

Don't start tinkering. You will never know if it is a good system if you keep changing parameters every 25 pieces of data.

Richard Latimer

At least vindicated leaving the Uruguayan tonight.

Richard Latimer

Let's show this month in all it's glory. It really has been atrocious!!

Some if it could have been avoided but on the whole I have to hope this is an anomaly.