Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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ELO's:
Off to bed in a min so won't be doing anything overnight.
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Sept can craw behind a rock and die. Contributed to my own pain a little but there have been a few things out of my control and also just plain old variance. 9 days to turn it around and make small profit from medium red. H2 goals:
No data on Paraguay for this yet but I like the league in general. It has always been one of the better ones for me and usually sees a goal or two, often very late. Odds good as well.
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@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer you leaving the new season matches now? had a feeling you didnt used to.
No, I didn't but had to admit defeat there when I started looking into it. I wait 7 combined games into the season (not home/away specific, just enough time for both teams to get up to speed.
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@richard-latimer you leaving the new season matches now? had a feeling you didnt used to.
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Same again on the H2 goals. I'll leave the unprofitable leagues well alone but continue to track.
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Sorry for the lateness but problems with stats have hampered me. Not all these are good. Some in leagues I'm only tracking and some in newly started leagues. You can check individual country results on current sheet as well as old which is at the back.
If the fixture has a combined amount of fixtures 6 or less (not home/away specific) then I'll leave it.
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Lots of potential H2 goals though where I've so far found early season form to make little or no difference:
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Only 2 ELO's today when you take out the very early season games:
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Loss in Egypt for the ELO today. Before I post tomorrows there is one starting soon in Columbia. La Equidad go behind I will lay Boyaca Chico. Only a couple of results in Columbia so far but both were positive.
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Missed Elfsborg due to sofascore not notifying me. Nevermind. Only a couple of potentials tomorrow:
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All I've got.
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Another good couple of ELO trades today. Need to get a handle on the H2 goals. A bit like treacle at the moment but hopefully removing some leagues to the paper trading area will help there. On the subject of ELO's I'll posty those tomorrow as nothing decent overnight anyway.
H2 goals as follows:
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
No major changes to the H2 goals but I'm going to avoid a couple of leagues until I have the data to back it up. Rather than wait until I know they should be removed I think I prefer to remove until proven which isn't something I've done in the past.
Had a bad feeling about the game in Chile this morning and surprise surprise it remained 1-1 after HT. Serbia for goals hasn't been good when I've experimented with prev filters and with this one we're already looking at a 50/50 split.
So I'll keep tracking on the sheet I've set up for the paper trades and seen what comes of everything. For the time being unless it's a league I'm happy with I'll leave well alone.
These unknown leagues are slowing progress.
Egypt was the other one. One losing selection so will just track these for now.
Some leagues seem to be great for come backs but not so good for goals in general and vice versa.
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No major changes to the H2 goals but I'm going to avoid a couple of leagues until I have the data to back it up. Rather than wait until I know they should be removed I think I prefer to remove until proven which isn't something I've done in the past.
Had a bad feeling about the game in Chile this morning and surprise surprise it remained 1-1 after HT. Serbia for goals hasn't been good when I've experimented with prev filters and with this one we're already looking at a 50/50 split.
So I'll keep tracking on the sheet I've set up for the paper trades and see what comes of everything. For the time being unless it's a league I'm happy with I'll leave well alone.
These unknown leagues are slowing progress.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
H2 goals (potential):
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Another nice green today in Hacken. The recoovery is allmost complete. Time to make some profit for Sept. Only Egypt tomorrow in the ELO:
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Any night owls, these are the games I consider to have a high chance of there being a H2 goal. Odds dependent as always as well as personell if known and inplay stats if necessary.
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Palmeiras just equalised so that's now just over 3pts for the day and just under 2pts red for Sept.
It's coming back.
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Cerro Porteno is actually Tuesday. Tomorrows below:
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Also nothing to stop you taking the sheet as your own and pasting ratings in. I copy it a blank sheet. Remove first column then insert a column after game type, after home elo and after home offence. Also 2 columns after goal expectancy and superiority. These are where my formulas go when I paste it into the main sheet.
Just drag down the formulas for the new day. And get rid of anything that doesn't meet requirements.
Hope you managed with overnight games. I'll be posting in a bit but Paraguay at 00:30 is one. Cerro Porteno the better team.
Then again it's not until tomorrow so plenty of time.
