Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Corinthians match currently 0-1 @ HT and enough to suggest there should be another goal. Odds good. Laying under 1.5 @ 2.5.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

How do you mean? As in key players missing through international duty?

Yes mate

I do check the lineups where possible for key players. If the inplay stats suggest it's going the way I want I would be less inclined to move on and more inclined to follow my plan regardless.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

How do you mean? As in key players missing through international duty?

Yes mate

[Matt Wood]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

How do you mean? As in key players missing through international duty?

I guess, for me at least, missing and first game back?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

How do you mean? As in key players missing through international duty?

[Martin]

@richard-latimer how much do you take into account players being called up out of interest?

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer have you got much popping up with the internationals? I imagine Asia and Scandinavia will carry on

I only look a day ahead but there's usually a few things during internationals. Obv not as much.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer have you got much popping up with the internationals? I imagine Asia and Scandinavia will carry on

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing on 'Titanic'

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

A few goal selections for Wed as well starting in MLS if odds etc....ok. So I'm happy with the countries/leagues. I'm happy with the goals scored for and goals combined numbers for goals conceded along with % goals scored after HT.

In short I'm happy with everything. If any of these trades qualify and then lose so be it. They're not on the edge of anything that I can see. They're right where I would want them to be assuming enough key players on the pitch/attacking intent shown through sofascore graph/inplay stats.

After all I forgot to post them haha!

[Richard Latimer]

A few goal selections for Wed as well starting in MLS if odds etc....ok. So I'm happy with the countries/leagues. I'm happy with the goals scored for and goals combined numbers for goals conceded along with % goals scored after HT.

In short I'm happy with everything. If any of these trades qualify and then lose so be it. They're not on the edge of anything that I can see. They're right where I would want them to be assuming enough key players on the pitch/attacking intent shown through sofascore graph/inplay stats.

[Richard Latimer]

3 more ELO's fot tomorrow:

There's more on the list of monitored under the tab can't get back up if anyone wants to see but I'll just be doing these if the opportunity arises.

[Richard Latimer]

No late goals picks but an overnighter in Titanic if anyone is burning the midnight oil. I won't be haha!

[Richard Latimer]

There's also a game in Ecuador although I'll be leaving that one well alone until I have more data.

[Richard Latimer]

It's gonna get quiet but there's a couple of potentias for tomorrow. Let's start off Sept in the green. I was going to say a bang but that will be pushing it haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Sometimes when it comes to trading and iv noticed it here people can massively over complicate things. I think your looking into sample sizes not big enough and just basing opinions rather than letting the data play out a bit more. For me if your basing a filter off of season stats then last seasons data should be void. Bit bullish to say that but so much changes, new signings, new tactics, new managers and new ambitions.

Each criteria for analysing data like this should have a larger sample size. Im not talking about the overall amount of trades but when you get granule and start looking at different criteria such as how many were start of season so between 0-10 games same with league data too you need to allow data to drive your decisions. Sometimes in the past you have jumped or reacted to certain things. 4 losses on the bounce and straight away your analysing just one example. Your doing fine mate. Dont do reaction decisions and dont use small data sizes let them breathe. Paper testing shouldnt be rushed. Only employ money on things once its become almost robotic like in selection and consistency. The late goals is something iv been trading for a while now and like to think im fairly well educated in them, make sure your looking at all the variables within the game not just the filters.

I'm still tracking them. I just think it should give me pause before putting money down while collecting the data. I know hat you mean the small data samples not being able to give you all the answers but I do think it could possibly act as a way to avoid costly mistakes until the data sample is larger in size. In fairness it's the way I worked on ELO's. What I want to avoid there is removing things after putting money on and rather keep my money in the wallet until I'm happy with certain areas.

[A Former User]

Sometimes when it comes to trading and iv noticed it here people can massively over complicate things. I think your looking into sample sizes not big enough and just basing opinions rather than letting the data play out a bit more. For me if your basing a filter off of season stats then last seasons data should be void. Bit bullish to say that but so much changes, new signings, new tactics, new managers and new ambitions.

Each criteria for analysing data like this should have a larger sample size. Im not talking about the overall amount of trades but when you get granule and start looking at different criteria such as how many were start of season so between 0-10 games same with league data too you need to allow data to drive your decisions. Sometimes in the past you have jumped or reacted to certain things. 4 losses on the bounce and straight away your analysing just one example. Your doing fine mate. Dont do reaction decisions and dont use small data sizes let them breathe. Paper testing shouldnt be rushed. Only employ money on things once its become almost robotic like in selection and consistency. The late goals is something iv been trading for a while now and like to think im fairly well educated in them, make sure your looking at all the variables within the game not just the filters.

[Richard Latimer]

Still waffling on. Titanic had one qualifier yesterday. It was a loser but a extremely low odds loser @ 1.1. Prob could have got out even on 83rd minute when a goal came. It ended 1-2.

Not a massive issue but I know comeback results appear poor for some countries as I'm sort of excluding them on the ELO. Hungary is a country where I have one result and one loss in a years selections so if it's not happening on the ELO then I'll not post it for the Titanic either.

[Richard Latimer]

Just calculated my daily profit tracker for all of August and while it's a sickener to end on such a bad note I'm still 100% in profit for the 3rd month running. You could say it's 1st quarter in profit even since I started tracking again.

Not huge numbers so I'll share the results.

June £13.61
July £17.45
Aug £10.56

Still on the right track.

Let's make it a good Sept.

[Richard Latimer]

Going to the cinema this afternoon but until then I'm going to update some stuff. I mentioned that following my deep analtical session on these I'd managed to right the ship and that continued yesterday. Have an overall yield of over 10% again now since I made those changes which is pushing closer to where I was on the last sheet at around 15%. Missed a decent one in Mexico as well although was a bit late.

Yesterday saw 5 wins and 1 small loss in Sweden. The wins came from Korea, China, Norway, Slovakia and Tunisia. Don't always have a market for it but I've noticed Tunisia seems to be quite good. Slovakia I'm on the fence still but it's ok. Not a definite losing proposition like some.

I noticed yesterday that the match in Chile I thought won must have been ruled out as it would have in fact been a loser.

Splitting the sheet up like this does definitely seem to be the way to go for now.