Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Recently I've become way too impulsive again on following/adapting all the newest and latest ideas I come across, to the detriment of what was beginning to go in the right direction.
In addition there have been areas I could see within the LTD which were starting to fall down but I wanted to give stuff the benefit of the doubt before simply removing it all.
I have been making small changes as I go but the changes have not been enough. It's true the changes I have made could stilll be seeen as knee jerk but I tend to view it a little differently to that.
For example, the more and more I look at LTD the more it seems you need games with less obvious equals and lower odds on one side or the other. Certain leagues seem to cause problems more than others but you can't obliterate them all and when I've done that on other ideas I had in the past all that happened was I got rid of around 50% selections and then the leagues that had been performing started to lose and I was left with a failing system.
It's not always going to work but I've seen in the past many times, these games where nobody seems to be doing anything, no shots, no attacking or even worse, a barage of shots inside the area and 3 or 4 big chances missed. You look at the odds and surprise , there eithwr is no favourite, the home favourite is favourite by only a small margin or the away favourite is favourite but not odds on.
Recent examples are Union Calera, Trabzonspor, Walsall.
From here on home favourites need to have an average under 2.30 (2.29 or less) as seen on oddsportal and away favourites need to under 2.00 (1.99 or less). I'm hoping this should bring more stable results.
Lays are still going very well. I just need to stop missing them when they qualify to maximise these.
Backs, I've got rid of away teams. Yes data was small but I don't just count the data I have here so much as all the other times I've tried to include away teams in ideas of backing and seen they just don't ever seem to do that well long term.
The very obvious red on only a few selections here was enough to decide on just bcking the home teams. Don't get that many but better when they do qualify that I have a higher chance of winning the trade.
So here's todays:
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Almost nothing going on to make that loss back today/tomorrow.
Expect FHG in Gharaffa (Qatar), potential LTD in Finalnd with TPV vs Musa.
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I'm on LTFHT (lay the first half draw) in Potosi game. Still 0-0 after 20 odd minutes. Layed at 2.30.
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Good day. Could have been improved but I forgot to lay Reading when they went ahead, taking my small profit on LTD and mistakenly thinking that was it for the day.
In any case, we end up with the following:
LTD on Sadd, Sandefjord & West Brom - 100%
LTFHD on Viborg, Duhail - A 50/50 split and slight loss
Duhail comeback with a late late goal and secured almost full profit before they scored a late winner -
Here's todays:
Added a FH LTD (or LTFHD) inspired by what @Ryan-Carruthers is currently doing. From a quick look last night I can see that not all will have the greatest liquidity in this market so may not do all or even many fof them depending on this. Need to be able to get out after a goal is scored.
Not really got a set of rules yet for these but I think I'll be aiming to get in around the 10 minute mark. Aim will be to look at how much price drops from kick off in this time frame so I can start to leave unmmatched bets at say 25-30% reduction of the original odds on offer. A work in progress for sure and based on my previous history I can't promise it will go anywhere haha!
Rules for the rest on my sheet as per normal:
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Just these for tomorrow.
Rules on sheet.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Going to start posting in here again as well as football forum. Need to keep myself accountable.
Rules on sheet although they are evolving all the time as I collect data.
Ok so only one qualified today and I almost cocked it right up!! A recent issue I need to get on top of quickly is my propensity to lay the home team rather than the draw by mistake. It happened in Stockport game at the weekend and it happened again tonight. Luckily Bodo/Glimt came back unlike Eastleigh.
I know why it happens. I make all my trades on my phone and when I use betondroid the first selection that comes up on opening the market is ladder for home team. You have to actually manually select the draw.
It's still ridiculous though. I wonder if anyone else has made similar mistakes and managed to find a way to avoid in the future??
In any case, the trade worked if you played it how I was supposed to so I'll leave the selection in.
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Going to start posting in here again as well as football forum. Need to keep myself accountable.
Rules on sheet although they are evolving all the time as I collect data.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Friday selections all up in the football thread.
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If either of the above are 0-0 or 1-1 @ HT I will LTD with a view to getting out either with 2 goal cushion or no later than 75 mins if only 1 goal. If no goal comes I'll stick it out until a goal does come.
If score is 0-1 I'll lay half available odds of U1.5 with a view to this matching 62nd-63rd minute.
For the Bolivian game I may do that regardless as it will be late and allows me to retire to bed haha!!
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Not updated this thread in a while but that's because I've been trying to post what I'm doing in the football thread as well so more ppeople see it and then it just became something else to do haha!! In any case everything is detailed within my work sheets.
Today is just Ulsan Hyundai in terms of the back/lays.
If they get to HT @ 0-0 and odds better than just before kick off I'll back them and trade out with a 2 goal cushion or if only a 1 goal lead on 80 mins (no later). Whichever happens sooner I will deal accordingly.
Other than that I will let it run.
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Detailed analysis of what I'm doing today in the football thread.
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Other than 1 ht Ltd which I'm not properly putting out there yet. I will however be laying the draw if tampines are 0-0 or 1-1 at ht.
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Nothing today
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All favoured hom teams today. If they fall behind I'll lay the opp and then if they fall further behind I will potentiall lay again depending on odds.
Also if Shanghai SIPG or Beijing make it to HT at 0-0 with increased odds I will back them.
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Guangzhou Evergrande the only favoured team today. If they fall behind I will lay the opp and if they fall further behind I will lay again. Assess trade when/if home team scores.
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Been through all the comeback selections with a fine toothcombe looking for correlation between prev H2H results and other than Tampine it alll looks fairly ok.
Where the historical data shows no significant bias to the underdog I have left alone as these have all performed well enough.
Where historical data shows a bias to the underdog I have looked to see if this bias is recent and if not then hopefully things should be fine.
Ipswich v Leeds was the only other to make me think but then away games not very frequent anyway and this rule hasn't affected things one way or the other on the aways so for the time being I'm leaving them in. -
All selections on sheet and posted on football thread.
Yesterday was a testing day but came through it with not much deficit at all due to doubling down on the lay and not being afraid to red out.
I got back in the Albirex Niigata match about 5 mins before the end as odds were very low and a 2nd goal for the home side looked likely. It didn't come but I would do again.
In the Maribor game I managed to lay Triglav @ 1.05 when they were 0-2 up and then cashed out around 1.25 when they scored a goal straight back. It stayed 1-2 so taking the smaller loss was definitely the way to go.
Took full profit on Plzen. Tried to cash out a couple of times towards the end but each time I did the market suspended. Then Plzenw ent ahead and I decided to leave it for a bit. Then they scored a 3rd.
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All selections on sheet and posted in football thread
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Posted on football thread.
