Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

As stated in the football thread it's debateable Olafsvik have anything to play for on the back side but i'll leave it there for now so people can make up their own mind.

[Richard Latimer]

Most of tomorrows card off limits as family BBQ in the afternoon. One potential in the early kick off between Doncaster and Rotherham. I'll lay Rotherham if they should take the lead.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Finland Ykkonen 06/09/2019 16:30 TPS AC Kajaani LTD
Finland Ykkonen 06/09/2019 16:30 TPS v AC Kajaani Lay
Ireland Premier Division 06/09/2019 19:45 Dundalk v Cork City Back
Iceland Inkasso-deildin 06/09/2019 21:00 Throttur Fram LTD

Got one. Backed Dundalk @ 1.5 and cashed after the goal.

Importantly this is now 4 straight winning days when before I was stuck at 3 haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Finland Ykkonen 06/09/2019 16:30 TPS AC Kajaani LTD
Finland Ykkonen 06/09/2019 16:30 TPS v AC Kajaani Lay
Ireland Premier Division 06/09/2019 19:45 Dundalk v Cork City Back
Iceland Inkasso-deildin 06/09/2019 21:00 Throttur Fram LTD

Got one. Backed Dundalk @ 1.5 and cashed after the goal.

[Richard Latimer]

Finland Ykkonen 06/09/2019 16:30 TPS AC Kajaani LTD
Finland Ykkonen 06/09/2019 16:30 TPS v AC Kajaani Lay
Ireland Premier Division 06/09/2019 19:45 Dundalk v Cork City Back
Iceland Inkasso-deildin 06/09/2019 21:00 Throttur Fram LTD

[Richard Latimer]

This is turgid. Nothing to see here. Maybe something Thursday.....or not.......who knows

[Richard Latimer]

Another anti climax today with the few I had on radar not qualifying.

[Richard Latimer]

Had a couple of potentials today but they either went nowhere or didn't go inplay on betfair. KTP in Finland would have been LTD but market suspended so couldn't do anything.

[Richard Latimer]

Missed a couple in the early part of the day as out with the fam.

100% since the NY Red Bulls debacle. Will update properly tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Not a bad day. Today has started poorly overnight (documented on football thread).

Won't be doing all these today as family times coes first. See how many I get.

[Richard Latimer]

Saturday. Rules on sheet.

[Richard Latimer]

4 qualifiers, 4 winners. Much better. Working on tomorrows now.

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

Posted 3 today, 2 qualified, both lost.

[Richard Latimer]

Didn't get a chance to post here as busy but from the limited selection I was keeping an eye on Eastleigh qualified as a lay when they took the lead. They unfortunately took the lead again requiring a double down before they got one back and I was able to get out almost break even.

LTD on Valur v Stjarnan too which netted small profit.

Up very slightly on the day. All this id documented on the football trading thread.

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers Yeah but like I say, when you remove the ones where goal scored 70 mins+ then it's 10 from 11 to have made a comeback so far.

Money to be made in laying but if the goal comes too late worth hanging on for 10-15 minutes before hopefully cashing out for profit. That's how it seems at the moment anyway.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Smart move on that, 13 of the 19 teams have done a come back - that's pretty startling!

[Richard Latimer]

LTD finished 100% today and only one lost even if they had been left to run.
Comeback lays hard work clawing back deficit every time the 2nd goal went against but still only a small loss after all that.
Backs a small loss again as 4 selections went for a 50/50 split.

[Richard Latimer]

Rules on sheet but from today if I have to get out of a LTD when underdog scores first and fave is at home with average pre kick off odds 1.95 or lower.... I will lay the away team. Cash out immediately after an equaliser on these.

[Richard Latimer]

After going back through my results it strikes me that there's still money to be made here.

Aside from the active lays I've been making through research when a side goes behid there are 19 such times when underdog has taken the lead in my HT LTD filter (odds of fave 1.95 or under as per oddsportal). Of these 19, 13 of the homes teams have mounted a come back and of those 13 only 1 has gone on to lose in the dying seconds.

For the 6 that didn't come back only once was it from a position early in the 2nd half where liability would be larger (not insurmountable for sure, I'm doing it all the time as is). 1 of the losing 6 came in the 89th minute. Of course at this point you ccould well decide another goal was highly unlikley and skipt it but the liability would be small anyway it's almost worth a throw of the dice there.

The remaining 4 came around 70-75 minute mark and again you are going to be looking at some short odds lays there.

Think from now on, not only will I get out immediately if the odds on (1.95 or below) favourite goes behind but also I will be placing a lay of the away team immediately.