Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Sun ELO:
Saturday was a bit of a mixed bag really. Not especially good, not especially bad.
Shandong I saw was around 1.78 to lay the away when they went ahead so ave loss.
Then Pyramids were higher than that initially but got quite low before they pulled it back.
Nacional in Uruguay (I should say, I don't have much from Uruguay but what I do have is good for these) went behind to Fenix and pulled that back. Odds there were 1.79 to lay Fenix when they went ahead.Finally it was another low odds lay in Paraguay although this time it didn't quite come off. I got 1.4 on River Plate.
So I suppose Pyramids negated the loss on Shandong and the loss on River Plate cancelled out over half the green on Nacional. Still, it was definitely green which after last weekend is good.
On another note U. Catolica just pulled off a comeback in Chile for the leagues I'm monitoring but doing nothing else with at the moment.
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Something to consider moving forward. Not quite sure how I'm going to change things but I probably will to an extent. The lower the goal odds at ht the longer they take to come in further it would seem. Just missed the first since I've been doing it this way where the goal came post 65mins.
Odds of 6.4 at hT will probably be closer to 3.2 after 60-65 mins.
Odds of 3.45 didn't even get to 2.26 by the 67th/68th minute. -
Short priced lay away (if score 0-2):
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Goal selection (H2 specifically):
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We made it!!! The weekend is upon us and finally there will be some trades:
Have already split out the good ELO leagues (Won't Stay Down) from the 'Can't Get Back Up' ones.
The good ones.
The sus ones.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Going to hope for an opportunity to put this one in Uruguay into Action in a bit:
Need 0-0/0-1/1-1@HT to enter. Also decent enough odds and attacking threat/good enough inplay stats. Once I have this I will lay the next under to hopefully match around 65-70 mins.
1-0 and a red card so that ones out.
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If Arad go 0-2 down it's a lay on the away:
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Going to hope for an opportunity to put this one in Uruguay into Action in a bit:
Need 0-0/0-1/1-1@HT to enter. Also decent enough odds and attacking threat/good enough inplay stats. Once I have this I will lay the next under to hopefully match around 65-70 mins.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
ELO's from largely untested countries on Thursday (one in Ecuador and one in Kazak):
Glad I didn't jump in. Ecuador would have been a loss last night. Either a small traded loss or an outright loss but a loss just the same. Time to see if the Kazaks have what it takes.
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ELO's from largely untested countries on Thursday (one in Ecuador and one in Kazak):
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If the home team goes behindd 0-2 I will lay away:
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Potential H2 goals if the moon is in Jupiter:
I keep talking about how awful Russia is, prob wouldn't do that one. Also Morocco. Doubt I'd bothere there either. EDIT: Morocco cancelled anyway.
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Absolutely zero, nada, zilch today.
Tomorrow:
And from the stable of it may do ok but then again I have nothing to back that up:
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Also, on my Titanic filter is this:
Lay away if 0-2 up.
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2nd half goal picks. For detils of how I play them, when I play them or even if I play them scroll up.
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ELO's for Tuesday:
Won't Stay Down (leagues I'm happy with)
Can't Get Up (leagues I no longer trust)
Prob won't qualify anyway but if it does I'm staying away. Knock yourself out if you want to have a go haha!
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@richard-latimer I could watch Mbappe play football everyday and not get bored my lord what a player
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@ryan-carruthers said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer I've always thought France was low scoring, seems to be a really defensive league - I have zero stats to back that up just exp!
I think it used to be but maybe PSG and those running to catch up have changed that culture a little.
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@Richard-Latimer excellent analysis and update and validates what you’ve been doing.
Shows us what analysis we need to do at times if having doubts
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@richard-latimer I've always thought France was low scoring, seems to be a really defensive league - I have zero stats to back that up just exp!