Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Trying something a little different for a bit. Not properly tracking it yet, just dipping my toe in the water. Been encouraged by initial results.

Using the ratings:

ELO 100 difference +
Comeback for ELO favourite 60+

If favourite goes behind lay the other team. Await goal, cash out for green.
If favourite loses a further goal. Double down on the lower price. Once more, await goal and cash out as soon as possible regardless of whether taking a small loss or small profit.

If favourite takes the lead strike that match and move on to the next.

If no goal comes for the favourite after going behind suck it up and move on.

That may work but need to tighten it up. Only first weekend and already wife made clear she wasn't happy about amount of time on my phone. Fair enough, i didn't take my eyes off it for hours Haha

Richard Latimer

Trying something a little different for a bit. Not properly tracking it yet, just dipping my toe in the water. Been encouraged by initial results.

Using the ratings:

ELO 100 difference +
Comeback for ELO favourite 60+

If favourite goes behind lay the other team. Await goal, cash out for green.
If favourite loses a further goal. Double down on the lower price. Once more, await goal and cash out as soon as possible regardless of whether taking a small loss or small profit.

If favourite takes the lead strike that match and move on to the next.

If no goal comes for the favourite after going behind suck it up and move on.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer I'd take a break from this project matey, still got the data and I am sure there's something in it. In terms of set and forgets have you seen the good day LTD system?

No, I'll take a look for sure. Trying to collect data for another away lay system at the moment. Not enough data to share yet.

Ryan

@richard-latimer I'd take a break from this project matey, still got the data and I am sure there's something in it. In terms of set and forgets have you seen the good day LTD system?

Richard Latimer

I missed todays fixtures completely. Hearts not in this at the moment so think it's time to break from the overs just temporarily.

I still have all the last years data and that's not going anywhere.

Richard Latimer

Got so much on at the moment that I'm struggling. Not just for time but in keeping my eyes open when I do have the time haha!!

If anybody is keen to see where the overs go from here and would be interested in taking the mantle for a bit regards collecting data that would be much appreciated.

Richard Latimer

To elaborate it's not that the system as a whole is going through a tricky patch. That I could handle. no, it's leagues which had been in good profit with many selections that have fallen through the floor either into a very poor yield or complete deficit as per one of the dutch leagues.

I'm going to look to tighten up the raw data a little rather than solely rely on filtered.

Richard Latimer

Thanks Lee,

I've spent a long time looking for an angle using the all league table as I'm starting to feel that leaving half the leagues out hasn't been giving the best picture. I think that's potentially shown from the amazing stats of 56-4 using any and all leagues when stats high enough.

The main issue there being a lack of selections. It's a shame there's nbo way to increase this because it looks dynamite.

I'm working on something else in addition presently so i'll keep thinking on this.

? Offline

@richard-latimer I understand the time issue, weve got 2 kids here + another 2 for half the week - all between ages 4 and 9! And youre mad getting a new puppy, ive got a 4 month husky and shes wild....definitely keeps me on my toes. But it doesnt have to be mega time consuming and even trading angles within the games can be almost be set-and-forget. If you know your entry points before then very little in-play analysis may be needed if following a system like this

Ive just pulled the following out from the LTO filtered leagues:

79% of games (449/568) had a first half goal. Thats pretty decent on its own, so there will be an angle there.
58% of games (198/342) had 2 SH goals. Probably nothing in this, would need to be 60%, maybe 65%
89% of games (305/342) had a second half goal - thats a fairly decent figure.

Obviously these are just 3 figures and they have to be feasible compared to odds but its something to work on

First goal times would help you a lot (even if its on just a smaller sample), you may find a large % of FHG goals are scored after 25. I actually back part of mine on 5' (i can just set-and-forget this). Youd get a price of 2.0 around 20-25 so youd only need just over 50%. You may also have a decent SR by backing O1.5 on 20', or 20' and 50' (same as Ryans strategy)

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@ryan-carruthers said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer I echo @Lee-woodman comments on this as well, what's the trading stats looking like, might make more sense to look and work through those as waiting a little bit to get more value and a better risk v reward.

@ryan-carruthers said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer I echo @Lee-woodman comments on this as well, what's the trading stats looking like, might make more sense to look and work through those as waiting a little bit to get more value and a better risk v reward.

There's a lot of way goals scored and then after ht when the score is 0-0 quite a lot of poor 2nd half. In any case my family life really doesn't allow for a great deal of time trading right now. Just recently got a puppy to add to the mix of a wife and 2 kids so until everyone goes to bed, including the dog (about 10pm), I am busy haha!

Been trying to go through all the individual filters like I did with saying all leagues very profitable when scored/conceded for both teams equals 85%+across the board.

That little stat gives results of 56 wins to 4 losses.

Similarly when goal difference heavily favours one side or the other you get 47 wins and only 5 losses. So there is still something in what I've collected.

Trouble is even together that's only 112 selections in just over a year when previously I was looking at 600+

That should have said a lot of early goals scored.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer I echo @Lee-woodman comments on this as well, what's the trading stats looking like, might make more sense to look and work through those as waiting a little bit to get more value and a better risk v reward.

@ryan-carruthers said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer I echo @Lee-woodman comments on this as well, what's the trading stats looking like, might make more sense to look and work through those as waiting a little bit to get more value and a better risk v reward.

There's a lot of way goals scored and then after ht when the score is 0-0 quite a lot of poor 2nd half. In any case my family life really doesn't allow for a great deal of time trading right now. Just recently got a puppy to add to the mix of a wife and 2 kids so until everyone goes to bed, including the dog (about 10pm), I am busy haha!

Been trying to go through all the individual filters like I did with saying all leagues very profitable when scored/conceded for both teams equals 85%+across the board.

That little stat gives results of 56 wins to 4 losses.

Similarly when goal difference heavily favours one side or the other you get 47 wins and only 5 losses. So there is still something in what I've collected.

Trouble is even together that's only 112 selections in just over a year when previously I was looking at 600+

Ryan

@richard-latimer I echo @Lee-woodman comments on this as well, what's the trading stats looking like, might make more sense to look and work through those as waiting a little bit to get more value and a better risk v reward.

Martin

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

i have massive concerns over this now seeing as pretty much all leagues with most selections are coming/have come unstuck hugelyof recent.

While I don't want to throw away over a years work I don't really want to keep flogging a dead horse long after it collapsed and rigor mortis has set in.

@Ryan-Carruthers, @Martin-Futter, @Everyone

Any ideas, suggestions? May be worth seeing if I could use data for something else.

Has anything changed since August that may explain it? Seemed to be a great trading curve before that!

? Offline

@richard-latimer Has the previous profit been wiped out or are you just having some shorter term losses?

It may be very difficult to get value out of a set and forget in such a low odds market which requires a very large SR. Maybe you need an angle to trade instead...an 'edge'. Whats the SR of FH goals, of SH goals, what times are the goals scored? Maybe its better to get in on 20-25 minutes at higher odds. Obviously number of selections is lower but price is higher so maybe its a better balance. For example my FHG filter looks much more profitable getting in at 5' and again at 20-25' rather than KO as the odds have settled - sometimes its the slightest difference can alter things. And my SH filter has a decent SR but its better for me to wait until 60' to get a better risk/reward ratio.

Richard Latimer

i have massive concerns over this now seeing as pretty much all leagues with most selections are coming/have come unstuck hugelyof recent.

While I don't want to throw away over a years work I don't really want to keep flogging a dead horse long after it collapsed and rigor mortis has set in.

@Ryan-Carruthers, @Martin-Futter, @Everyone

Any ideas, suggestions? May be worth seeing if I could use data for something else.

Richard Latimer

Just finished going through Fridays. 2 more 0-0's in supposedly high scoring leagues. Swiss Challenge is the next to fall out of favour. Crazy but right now this looks doomed all of a sudden!

Richard Latimer

More overs added for tomorrow but weekend results need to be updated still. Will do this midweek when fixtures slow down.

Richard Latimer

Damn it. Don't seem to have copied all the necessary data from csv file for the overs so while I can get it this is now a 100% manual job looking at soccerway. It's not something I can do now that's for sure.

I've update sheet for tomorrow. Only issue may be whether a game went inplay as I can't check right now. Still, results are results and data is data so it's not the end of the world.

Richard Latimer

Once again I've updated selections for Fri but not sorted filtered out yet. Rules are all there if anyone wants to throw the dice but not me right now.

Richard Latimer

Completely updated until end of March. A few more leagues removed. March not a loser but in stark contrast to last year.

I'll update all of Aprils results/selections now.