Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Couldn't resist!
Essentially it's what I've been doing over on the facebook page so if you've been following you'll know the deal by now.
There's official and monitored and the whole damn thing is fluid right now although I'm getting closer to what I feel will be the final product.
In any case it's all detailed on the attached sheet:
Will update for tomorrow asap
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Well the run in the UAE had to end at some point. But why did it have to end at odds of 8.8???
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@Martin Only leagues I don't track are when liquidity and volume become too low. Then I'll wipe them from sheet and delete from filter like I did with Wales last night despite the wins.
Exception to that was Estonia where I got in a tiz and deleted from home lays sheet and filter after a very poor loss
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@Richard-Latimer do you still track them once removed or is that untracked?
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Chance to go again on Germany so soon in the over 1.5 but odds look a little high considering I'm only going up to 6.8 there now:
Germany Bundesliga GER Bundesliga 15/01/2025 19:30 VfB Stuttgart RB Leipzig
England Premier League ENG Premier League 15/01/2025 19:30 Newcastle Utd Wolves -
Home lays:
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Now I'm actively trading the over 1.5 it will be time to start weeding out leagues I can't actually use in practice I guess.
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I don't regret my decision on Germany. It's just sods law.
Win or lose, I don't like the liquidity and volume in Wales so after tonight I'll be removing this league. Doesn't make up for what looks to be a costly mistake though.
Now looking like nothing to regret tonight. Wales is still gone though. Not a league I can upscale in the slightest.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.
Perth win stats are awful.
With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.
Laying Perth. Starts soon.
So that ended in my favour. 1-2.
On this basis I have to go with another home lay for this evening. Wales is currently just in the red but with only one loss from 4 trades. It is however a qualifier and everything points to the home team failing to win.
Laying Barry.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.
Perth win stats are awful.
With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.
Laying Perth. Starts soon.
So that ended in my favour. 1-2.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.
Perth win stats are awful.
With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.
Laying Perth. Starts soon.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Martin agreed so I don't take them out until I have reason to. With the filter in excel I can just add and remove based on what I see.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Martin I look at it differently. If there are so few selections then what are you really losing by putting them on the backburner, watching and seeing what happens.
One loss when you're only getting 3 or 4 a year is pretty pointless. One loss if you're stuck on 2 or 3 is even worse. The higher that loss the more you need to get back to break even. Could even be a couple of seasons.
yes that is a really good point, my only thought on that is that there are quite a few leagues that will only give a handful of selections so when combined can be a decent number.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
There are 4 leagues that provide a lot of selections for my overs where the price is often high and the high priced losers happen too often.
However, by capping the price on these leagues I believe I can still make use of the large number of selections and free flowing nature of each league.
Swiss Super
Norway Eliteserien
Netherlands Eerste
Germany BundesligaI reckon there's as much as 20pts in these leagues alone if capping accordingly.
The last time I made a decision like this it came back to bite me on the arse. But I just can't ignore every single German Bundesliga selection anymore. There are simply loads on the raw data, a fair few filtered qualifiers and a good percenatge of those which fall below 6.8 to lay (12 trades and 1 loss for a 7pt profit.
So Bundesliga dependent on price being 6.8 or lower (I'll use odds portal if in any doubt on befair as that's the prices I've been using up to now).
Wales as normal. -
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
2x low odds home lays tomorrow:
Asteras a no trade. Odds too low.
And the other ends 1-0.
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There are 4 leagues that provide a lot of selections for my overs where the price is often high and the high priced losers happen too often.
However, by capping the price on these leagues I believe I can still make use of the large number of selections and free flowing nature of each league.
Swiss Super
Norway Eliteserien
Netherlands Eerste
Germany BundesligaI reckon there's as much as 20pts in these leagues alone if capping accordingly.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
2x low odds home lays tomorrow:
Asteras a no trade. Odds too low.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Over 1.5 for tomorrow:
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@Martin I look at it differently. If there are so few selections then what are you really losing by putting them on the backburner, watching and seeing what happens.
One loss when you're only getting 3 or 4 a year is pretty pointless. One loss if you're stuck on 2 or 3 is even worse. The higher that loss the more you need to get back to break even. Could even be a couple of seasons.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer yeah I have a similar issue with Thailand and it is hard to eliminate because of so few selections meaning a very small sample size of data.
