Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Couldn't resist!
Essentially it's what I've been doing over on the facebook page so if you've been following you'll know the deal by now.
There's official and monitored and the whole damn thing is fluid right now although I'm getting closer to what I feel will be the final product.
In any case it's all detailed on the attached sheet:
Will update for tomorrow asap
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I had Rizespor qualify yesterday under my odds don't matter template as the league itself is profitable.
I didn't take it thankfully which is why I didn't post it. 0-0 and this is why the odds do matter. There's really no getting away from it.
What I can do is trust what I see at an earlier stage rather than teeing everything up for 5 mins pre kickoff. If the odds are way off then most likely they stay that way and I don't want any part in a sudden shift anyway.
If the odds are not where they should be on an overnighter before I hit the sheets I leave it rather than whacking the bet on or setting an alarm to disturb my sleep.
There are 25-26 leagues now all in profit by 10pts or more with varied odds ranges which only cut off top and bottom. Most have 15-20+ selections and most have a few losses which is necessary to see where the realistic profit stops and starts.
S/r is high. Around 96% with 17% yield. But it has come down from crazy high, cutting out almost every single loss.
There are some leagues within that which have 4 or less selections and obviously the jury is out there.
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And the away lays:
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Right, let's post the full update for Sept Overs:
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Lay Under 1.5:
Unless lay price drops below 4.8
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@Martin said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Richard-Latimer hope things in your personal life pick up mate!
Cheers @Martin
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@Richard-Latimer hope things in your personal life pick up mate!
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
My personal life is a mess which is impacting this but I'll try and get results updated as soon as possible. Not even sure when I last did.
The league that keeps on giving
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My personal life is a mess which is impacting this but I'll try and get results updated as soon as possible. Not even sure when I last did.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Crap weekend but got some back on Sunday despite me taking Koper by mistake when odds were not with me.
Fingers crossed for Fram tonight. Hopefully not the jinx but Iceland really has been superb. Even if it does lose tonight that league is gold.
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I'm not trading Groningen. Odds in Netherlands this low have been very poor. Need to make sure I don't ignore the obvious.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Lay Home:
Not laying Al Arabi. Heavy fave
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
I'm laying under 1.5 in Yamagata
That worked anyway, thank goodness!
1-1
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I'm laying under 1.5 in Yamagata
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've spent so long looking at my spreadsheet my eyes will be going square soon.
There's no doubting that this weekend would have been a bit crap regardless but I feel I may have been too quick to be outright dismissive of all the work I've done on tracking odds against different leagues.
I need to find a balance between overfitting and not outright ignoring what's on the page in front of me. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Kobe odds were in a place where J1 leagues have gone to die. Low and behold 0-0.
Celje odds of 6.2 way higher than anything since I've been tracking. 0-0.
PSG dismissed as in France. Odds fit where I've been looking before. 3-3.
The 100% home conceded I just referred to. Not really a problem when odds paid attention to and Lugano today just a result that had been overdue in Switzerland.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Not a great start to my new way of doing things with a 0-0 but hey ho!
Lot's more opportunities to lose more haha!
Lay Under 1.5
I wasn't wrong was I. Horrendous end to the day. Trouble I'm finding is just because stuff worked last season, doesn't mean it will this. There are definitely stats and leagues which will keep on giving. There are also those on the fringe which have provided a nice bit of profit last season but this season is very very different.
So starting on Leuven....ok move on
Celje, as 0-0 was getting ever closer I looked at the odds. Slovenia has been a very good league and usually nice odds. Todays highest by quite a bit. I've already said I'll remove high odds, just not low.
Lugano, home conceded 100% of the time over last 10 games. Not a common occurrence and last season it seemed what little came up it worked. This, again very very different. -
Well I re-entered all the scores which took me a while.
Israel just did what Israel does in terms of unexpected results. That league is out of the home lays. Actually not sure why I included it after this happened before.
Today odds of 10.5 lose!!
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Lay Home:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer that might be enough to make me quit...
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Accidentally overwrote 1000+ scores today and made them all 3-2......FFS!!!
Manually re-entering them now haha!
