Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Sheet updated with a few potentials for tomorrow.

Draw lays - Lay if 0-0 or 1-1 @ HT, trade out after a goal

On The Comeback Trail - Lay ELO underdog if they take the lead. Trade out after a goal or leave trade to run until around 75-80 mins. Less so for away favourites as these seem more susceptible. If next goal goes against double down on initial lay. If no further goals or another against suck it up and move on.

Setting The Pace - Back ELO favourite @ HT provided still 0-0 and initial pre kick-off odds have risen. Trade out at 1-0 or leave to run for a bit. Again play it safer with away favourites. If no goals or goal goes against suck it up and move on.

100% on the 4 that qualifiied today

[Richard Latimer]

Sheet updated with a few potentials for tomorrow.

Draw lays - Lay if 0-0 or 1-1 @ HT, trade out after a goal

On The Comeback Trail - Lay ELO underdog if they take the lead. Trade out after a goal or leave trade to run until around 75-80 mins. Less so for away favourites as these seem more susceptible. If next goal goes against double down on initial lay. If no further goals or another against suck it up and move on.

Setting The Pace - Back ELO favourite @ HT provided still 0-0 and initial pre kick-off odds have risen. Trade out at 1-0 or leave to run for a bit. Again play it safer with away favourites. If no goals or goal goes against suck it up and move on.

[Richard Latimer]

A BIG FAT NOTHING for tomorrow. There's overnighters but I'm not staying up to trade those.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Todays incredibly short list:

If opponent takes the lead lay opponent. Double down on a 2nd goal going against. If no further goals or another goal to opponent suck it up and move on. Trade out when green (or leave in untiil later in the game - just not too late.

Maribor - Slovenia
Vitebsk - Belarus
Young Boys - Switzerland

If 0-0 @ HT and odds have risen back teams below. Trade out for green or leave for a bit and trade out later.

Vitebsk
Dinamo Bucharest - Romania

I think I made a bit of a mistake on Dinamo Bucharest in as much as thinking they had something to play for. They are at the top of their relegation round table 15 points clear of relegation and with only 3 games left. When I looked last night I saw it only as them being at the top of the league by only a few points. Oh well.

Young Boys didn't need to win clearly but didn't think they'd get stomped 4-1!

Poor day

[Richard Latimer]

Todays incredibly short list:

If opponent takes the lead lay opponent. Double down on a 2nd goal going against. If no further goals or another goal to opponent suck it up and move on. Trade out when green (or leave in untiil later in the game - just not too late.

Maribor - Slovenia
Vitebsk - Belarus
Young Boys - Switzerland

If 0-0 @ HT and odds have risen back teams below. Trade out for green or leave for a bit and trade out later.

Vitebsk
Dinamo Bucharest - Romania

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Sheet updated with today's potentials.

Ltd ht if 0-0 or 1-1. Only match in Algeria.

One match in Lithuania to either back home if 0-0 @ ht providing odds increased from kick-off or lay away should they take the lead.

Trade out as and when but don't take excess risk for a couple more ticks as I have been so often prone to doing.

One qualifier in Lithuania. In at 0-1. Out at ht 1-1. Missed a winner in Romania too though for some reason even though I had listed it as a potential.

A few today which are all updated on sheet. Anyone has questions please ask.

[Richard Latimer]

Sheet updated with today's potentials.

Ltd ht if 0-0 or 1-1. Only match in Algeria.

One match in Lithuania to either back home if 0-0 @ ht providing odds increased from kick-off or lay away should they take the lead.

Trade out as and when but don't take excess risk for a couple more ticks as I have been so often prone to doing.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

An interesting one today is that Midtjylland are and ELO favourite yet distinct underdog and have a comeback rating of 82. If Brondby take the lead it will be a cheap lay.

Well midtjylland took the lead. In fact just the one qualifier today which was back at ht in Romania.

[Richard Latimer]

An interesting one today is that Midtjylland are and ELO favourite yet distinct underdog and have a comeback rating of 82. If Brondby take the lead it will be a cheap lay.

[Richard Latimer]

3 went behind today and 2 came back, trouble is I was indisposed thanks to a family incident and Torino ended up getting battered! Juve made things look a little nicer.

After missing out on so many recently I started thinking about how I could I find an angle to trade when it was still goalless.

By combining ELO and ratings for first to score I came up with a list (some were duplicates of the potential lays) to back at HT if still 0-0 provided the odds had risen from kick off. Other than Stjarnan it worked very well.

Milan won easily enough, Malmo won and Beer Sheva scored late on too. Only blot was once again Stjarnan in Iceland who defied the inplay stats massively!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

9 potentials tomorrow starting in Beijing @ 12:35. Sheet fully updated.

That's down to 5 now as quite a few betfair doesn't have.

Not one fell behind. First today is 1-0 to favourite as well although for some reason it's not gone inplay anyway.

Sheet updated. Next game looking at is Dynamo Kiev.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

9 potentials tomorrow starting in Beijing @ 12:35. Sheet fully updated.

That's down to 5 now as quite a few betfair doesn't have.

Not one fell behind. First today is 1-0 to favourite as well although for some reason it's not gone inplay anyway.

Sheet updated. Next game looking at is Dynamo Kiev.

Finally had a couple that went behind today. Marseille were behind for 3 minutes and I wasn't quick enough to get my lay in dicking around trying to get a better price. That's something I have to work on but ultimately it would have been a decent winner.

Domzale equalized through a penalty in the 85th and so managed to trade for almost full profit there too.

This is going well. Just hope I start to get more qualifiers again soon.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

9 potentials tomorrow starting in Beijing @ 12:35. Sheet fully updated.

That's down to 5 now as quite a few betfair doesn't have.

Not one fell behind. First today is 1-0 to favourite as well although for some reason it's not gone inplay anyway.

Sheet updated. Next game looking at is Dynamo Kiev.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

9 potentials tomorrow starting in Beijing @ 12:35. Sheet fully updated.

That's down to 5 now as quite a few betfair doesn't have.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

16/05/2019 17:00 Norway Obos-ligaen Normal Aalesund v Tromsdalen 1 16 -15 1603 1435 168 1.028 -0.289 0.621 -1.17 -0.142 0.332 3.12 30 38 8 76 39 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
16/05/2019 18:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Normal Orebro v Norrkoping 13 11 2 1494 1688 -194 0.408 -0.81 1.04 -0.307 0.101 0.23 2.58 -14 18 42 45 73 -23 12 17 7 55 -8 -5
16/05/2019 19:00 Switzerland Super League Normal Young Boys v Grasshoppers 1 10 -9 1798 1421 377 1.726 -0.427 0.046 -0.968 0.758 -0.381 3.46 43 57 6 91 22 25 44 -27 1 55 34 -10
16/05/2019 21:00 Egypt Premier League Normal Al Ahly v Enppi 1 9 -8 1838 1552 286 0.988 -0.051 0.551 -0.626 0.362 0.5 2.27 31 57 18 79 45 43 0 0 0 0 0 0
16/05/2019 22:30 Algeria Ligue 1 Normal ES Setif v Bordj Bou Arreridj 6 10 -4 1573 1467 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.46 53 64 36 79 23 49 0 0 0 0 0 0

Only if ELO favourite falls behind do I lay the opposition. Trade out when you feel comfortable. Double down on a second opposing goal and again trade out when comfortable.

And once again not a single qualifier. Nothing since 13/05 now. Must be a matter of time before one of them falls behind again.

9 potentials tomorrow starting in Beijing @ 12:35. Sheet fully updated.

[Richard Latimer]

16/05/2019 17:00 Norway Obos-ligaen Normal Aalesund v Tromsdalen 1 16 -15 1603 1435 168 1.028 -0.289 0.621 -1.17 -0.142 0.332 3.12 30 38 8 76 39 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
16/05/2019 18:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Normal Orebro v Norrkoping 13 11 2 1494 1688 -194 0.408 -0.81 1.04 -0.307 0.101 0.23 2.58 -14 18 42 45 73 -23 12 17 7 55 -8 -5
16/05/2019 19:00 Switzerland Super League Normal Young Boys v Grasshoppers 1 10 -9 1798 1421 377 1.726 -0.427 0.046 -0.968 0.758 -0.381 3.46 43 57 6 91 22 25 44 -27 1 55 34 -10
16/05/2019 21:00 Egypt Premier League Normal Al Ahly v Enppi 1 9 -8 1838 1552 286 0.988 -0.051 0.551 -0.626 0.362 0.5 2.27 31 57 18 79 45 43 0 0 0 0 0 0
16/05/2019 22:30 Algeria Ligue 1 Normal ES Setif v Bordj Bou Arreridj 6 10 -4 1573 1467 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.46 53 64 36 79 23 49 0 0 0 0 0 0

Only if ELO favourite falls behind do I lay the opposition. Trade out when you feel comfortable. Double down on a second opposing goal and again trade out when comfortable.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

3 potentials today:

If the following go behind I'll be laying the opposition. If they fall further behind I'll be doubling down on that lay. Looking to trade out after the ELO favourite bounces back into a winning position or if the match still stalemate on 80 minutes.

Esperance Tunis (liquidity dependent) - Tunisia
Hacken - Sweden
Stjarnan - Iceland

Nothing qualified inplay once more.

[Richard Latimer]

3 potentials today:

If the following go behind I'll be laying the opposition. If they fall further behind I'll be doubling down on that lay. Looking to trade out after the ELO favourite bounces back into a winning position or if the match still stalemate on 80 minutes.

Esperance Tunis (liquidity dependent) - Tunisia
Hacken - Sweden
Stjarnan - Iceland

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Just Rudes v Hadjuk to keep and eye on tomorrow. Think I may leave bet in for a bit if I get the chance.

Hadjuk went ahead early so nothing doing

[Richard Latimer]

Just Rudes v Hadjuk to keep and eye on tomorrow. Think I may leave bet in for a bit if I get the chance.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Eyes on Norrkoping and Besiktas in case either go behind. Happened already with Norrkoping. Laying Goteborg.

That's a win

Cashed at 1-1. Wondering if can be left for a bit to maximise earnings on this. Gothenburg winner didn't comen until 83rd minute.

So far I think I have to hang on a little before cashing to make the best of each winnning position. In terms of turning a winnning position into a losing position it has only happened towards the end of each game so far. 83rd minute today being the last.

Overall profit goes up by around 25% by doing this.
Leaving each trade to the very end is almost a break even position so little value evident there so far.