Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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So I've finally removed a couple of things to the archive sheet. Not because they were rubbish but because they were much slower burners or potentially not as good as the other stuff I''ve stumbled on and as mentioned before, I simply don't have time for all of it.
Backs on the 'back' burner but data retained
Lays using pretty much same data but ever so slightly different in some cases due to a team not needing to win. These are where I'm putting a large chunk of my time. They are straight lays on a tiered staking system similar to that oh so famous thread known pretty much exclusively to the online betting circles.If all of a sudden teams winning at ht start losing on a more regular basis then I'll rethink but for now the stats speak for themselves. 2 in around 120 selections.
Original over 2.5 and over 1.5 have been put in the archive room. I used to think a 5 game history was good for this but I have very much changed my allegiance to the season long view as with lays. Form is temporary, class is permanent? I guess that's as true for attacking potency as overall strength of a team.
Longterm 'Over'view (over 1.5) Still going and will continue until I get a crazy amount of data.
New worksheet to be created using HT 0-0's on the above for over 0.5 inplay. 4/5 today (80%) with thje only loser being a fairly low odds lay of the under @ 2.36. Again operating with a tiered staking system as fully explained earlier in the post.
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Tough day on the lays but LCS on 0-0 scorelines for longterm over 1.5's did well enough.
Feel like s**t now so updates may take a while. Bloody lurgey!!
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An angle making itself more apparent is on the longterm over 1.5's 0-0 at ht doesn't often stay that way so far. 86% 43/50 with one or more goals 2h. based on over 1.5 odds pre-match this could be quite lucrative. Also cuts down pool of over 180 selections significantly but still provides enough.most weekends.
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Lays ended with small loss but there are patterns to see for possible improvement in the future.
Alternative lays swept.
Backs tanked.
Over 2.5 also tanked.
Over 1.5 mehWorking out tomorrows now.
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Sheet updated. First lay inplay right now is Osmanlispor.
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Overs did very well too but all 1.5's are still just about in the red.
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Bugger. Tours won their first away game of the season. At least the odds weren't high.
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Slow day Friday. One selection on the lays, nothing for backs and a small smattering of overs.
Tours is that lay and that's the only actual trade I'll be making.
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so no backs as Barca odds too low. Lay as I've already said, came in. Overs not great. On to tomorrow and how many games will go ahead in the face of the beast is anyone's guess!
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@Adam-Williams I have just messaged you on fb asking if you could add one of my current filters and remove the 4 defunct 1x2.............unless anyone is using those of course......?
Cheers
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Also, despite Leipzig losing a lead and the match after winning at ht this has been almost as rare as rocking horse poo. With it happening twice in over 100 selections thus far that means that over 98% of the time the bet would have won and more green could have been captured on each.
In addition to this 65 of those winning selections were only winning by 1 goal meaning that the additional which could have been obtained in those would more than likely outweigh the loss from that lowly 2%.
With that in mind, for the time being all lays will be placed pre-match and left to run regardless.
I'm pretty happy with these at present so I'm going to try and get the filters added so anyone wanting to follow can do so before I make my updates.
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Today's only lay was an overnighter in Argentina which drew so another in the win column.
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Sheet updated for tomorrow. A few to look at but not much as ever in the week.
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Well unless Atletico concede 5 goals in 1 minute that's another mini sweep. Most postponed today but what there was turned out good. Even more importantly both lays came as there's now a small amount of actual cash on these!
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Some of the only selections were postponed but what there was came through for a small sweep.
Sheet already updated with tomorrow's.
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Minimal selections for tomorrow but the sheet is updated.
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Today showing why it's so important to include my balls ups no matter how difficult. The official strats while notexactly dynamite, looking a whole lot better than my real trades.
Today was the turn of Plzen. Odds way way over my limit pre-match but I'd noticed they mostly came right in during the match so I though why not try make a bob on it. Cue a lay @ 21.00. 0-1 shortly after but not to worry Plzen far superior, they'll get it back. Top up the lay @ 5.5.
Did they f as like get it back?! Despite being well into double figures for shots on target 0-1 it remained. Not a costly lesson. My stakes not currently high enough for it to be costly.
Nevertheless if I never achieve my goals I believe impatience will pay a large part in it. When will I learn that impulsive bets/trades almost never work and always leave you with egg on your face!!
In terms of official stuff.
Both backs won
Both lays won (same games)
Over 2.5 - 1 selection/1 win
Over 1.5 - Nada, zilch
Alternative lays - same 2 games as above.
Alternative over 1.5 - A couple of skinny odds but only 1 loser. Small green. -
Decided to let some of the late ones run. Wouldn't say it was a mistake exactly as data shows only 2 from well over 100 have lost after being a goal up at ht (was only 1 before today).
Purely the law of sod which chose to make today the 2nd.
As it is the lays still finished off only about 0.25 pts down.
Backs soldiered on as normal without really going anywhere.
Minimal overs but small losses there.
Small loss on the alternative lays and some more loss on the alternative over 1.5.
Overall a fairly pants day but lays would have been up if I'd stuck to the plan. Only a few for Monday. Sheet updated.
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Way less in some areas today so hopefully a lot more manageable. Famous last words!
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Right, sheet updated. Still not checked what's going inplay yet but first lay due at 10:30.
