Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Trading gods are bastards and it's fair to say the raw data went back to the mean today.

Still a couple of trades to go but heavy heavy loss today.

Richard Latimer

So much easier to motivate yourself posting updates when all has gone well:

Richard Latimer

That's it. September finished and while today was a small loss, overall I made £127 this month.

That's £30 more than last months loss and puts me back in profit for the year.

Richard Latimer

I didn't want to update after Aug as it was far too raw and I needed things to go right before I spent time putting the negatives down on the page. Thankfully Sept has blown Aug away and but for a very bad day the profit will almost certainly exceed the massive loss so all back and more.

Limiting my odds while the system is still in development has helped massively.

Richard Latimer

Despite it being a brilliant month with only 3 days left I am just going to address the downturn in my lay overs strategy which is having the worst month for ages even though it's around break even give or take a couple of points. Under 1.5's are hitting at 27%!!

This has a lot to do with how well the raw data is fairing and you have to go back to Sept last year to find a better s/r than the 88% coming in this Sept (last year it was 90% and over 2.5 lays were at 50% compared to 52% this).

Although I should caveat that by saying there were a lot less selections of the unders (over lays) back then.

When Oct hit the raw data went down massively to 76% and the over lays flourished.

Richard Latimer

Purple is over 2.5 lay, the other 2 potential under 1.5 lays providing no higher than 6.0 to lay when I take the trade.

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 providing 6.0 or less when I hit the hay

Richard Latimer

Rest for today. Purple are over 2.5 lays, remainder are under 1.5 lays:

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 @6.0 or less:

Richard Latimer

For Friday. Purple are lay over 2.5, blue lay under 1.5:

Max lay odds for 1.5 under lays = 6.0

Richard Latimer

Lay Over 2.5:

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5

Richard Latimer

The rest of this weekend for me. All under 1.5 lays if 6.0 or better in price:

Richard Latimer

Part one of the weekend. All under 1.5 lays:

Richard Latimer

I'm delaying updating Aug in the hope I can update with a positive Sept!

These for the weekend. Purple is lay over 2.5, blue lay under 1.5.

Max price for laying under 6.00:

Richard Latimer

Purple will be over 2.5 lays
Blue under 1.5 lays
Rotherham under 1.5 lay

All under lays must be max price of 6.00

Richard Latimer

ALOT of lost ground to make up in Sept:

Blue is lay under 1.5
Purple is lay over 2.5

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:

Lay Under 1.5:

Not looking forward to posting this months update. Absolute crap again! Still, plenty of time left in the year to pull things around.....

Another 0-0 and my bank is in a tailspin. The raw data has fallen off a cliff so following that would have been 10x worse. Changes I've made have not only saved but also showed me a way to benefit from those unexpected games and also potentially throw them back into the mix if they don't qualify as one of those really dull games.

I can't be too cautious as I rule out too many winning trades and still hit the odd duffer I would repeat. I can't throw caution to the wind and lay up to 11.00 as I was doing because while it gives me something going forward these dull 0-0's would kill me in the meantime.

Had I only laid up to 6.00 for all of last month I would haved fared better. Sods law that you make a decision and still get hit by a couple of stragglers when you're in need of a good run the most.

Rio Grande v San Antonio from a quick check this morning had incredibly high numbers for away team scoring and home conceding. Only just had a loser like this in Denmark which thankfully was too high odds but that's 2/3 or 2/4 now where those high numbers do not equate to high scoring. That's over more than a year now too.

Long story short.....last night's loser takes 1 win away from the Azerbaijan league and gives me another successful over lay for my data. The Azerbaijan was also only 0-2 so gives another over 2.5 lay as well should I go down that path.

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

Not looking forward to posting this months update. Absolute crap again! Still, plenty of time left in the year to pull things around.....

Richard Latimer

Lay Over 1.5 Herediano in Costa Rica