Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Ouch
Looks like a graph of the current economy
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If anyone still has the slightest bit of faith in these after today here they are:
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Let's start with the good stuff. Goal picks saved my bacon today big time! They are currently at an unsustainable 30% yield and 85% s/r from around 64mins in. The crazy thing is it doesn't change massively from 70 minutes in hence why I've been trying to split the stake recently most of the time.
On top of the ones I put money on Hafnarf and some Ruskies made good on a 2-0 HT score and these are now looking pretty good. A few more wins on those and I will add them to the real deal.
2-1 in Javor failed but then I think that's the longterm outlook there. Still tracking but 2 wins and 2 losses doesn't fill me with hope so far.
Finallly Cherno More were 1-2 @ HT and that one finished 1-4 with a late goal starting it off 73rd minute. Again this was just for tracking at this stage.
It's also important to note that these are not teams with really short odds on the over. Generally speaking the max score @ HT tends to be around 6.0 and often way shorter.
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@michael-ellner said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Day started off great with the goals and ended with a damp squib in the ELO's.
Need to find the best way of playing it when a strong favourite comes back from 2 goals down with 1 goal. I re-lay on the 0-2 always. It's par for the course.
It's what happens after.
Even if the stronger team only makes a comeback 50% of the time is it better to stay in??? I'm not sure at the moment but the last 3 that did this have come back to give everyone a bumper payday. Everyone that is apart from me.
Always more to learn.....
I've been doing the same as you and using it as an opportunity to take out the red rather than staying in for a big green.
I think I'll carry on doing it this way for now as getting rid of the red on a trade that's not gone according to plan feels like a win to me and with higher stakes in the future I think it's the safer way to go....unless they keep drawing level then I'll have a rethink.I may start removing the additional liability where possible and leave it for a bit. Had a quick discussion with Martin on the private coaching and this what he mainly does.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Day started off great with the goals and ended with a damp squib in the ELO's.
Need to find the best way of playing it when a strong favourite comes back from 2 goals down with 1 goal. I re-lay on the 0-2 always. It's par for the course.
It's what happens after.
Even if the stronger team only makes a comeback 50% of the time is it better to stay in??? I'm not sure at the moment but the last 3 that did this have come back to give everyone a bumper payday. Everyone that is apart from me.
Always more to learn.....
I've been doing the same as you and using it as an opportunity to take out the red rather than staying in for a big green.
I think I'll carry on doing it this way for now as getting rid of the red on a trade that's not gone according to plan feels like a win to me and with higher stakes in the future I think it's the safer way to go....unless they keep drawing level then I'll have a rethink. -
@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
And goals:
These carried on producing the goods today with goals in Chongqing and Zaglebie. There was also a goal in Hebei although as that one was 2-1 @ HT it was just for tracking at the moment.
Very early days in the longterm life of a trading strat but at 31 wins from 37 and ave odds taken of 2.82 I think this is very promising.
Not only that but if I include some of the scoreline I'm not yet taking then it's 49 from 58.
The strat is derived from @Martin-Futter's late goals though so it certainly gives me confidence.
The main differences
My scope is 10 matches
Not restricted to current season
Imagine some leagues he doesn't do
When home team and away team numbers are both only 80% these are ruled out (data for these wasn't good)
If 3 or more of the criteria is on the lower side these are ruled out (allows for hopefully only the cream of selections on any given day)
If any H2 goals happen before my lay is matched the game is done
Min 1.15 ave odds for over 0.5 H2 (for this I look at oddsportal.com as it pulls all bookmaker prices together)
At present HT scoreline of 0-0/0-1/1-1 only (hope to include a few more in future)How I'm playing them:
If inplay stats acceptable and/or some/all of the best players on the pitch I will lay the next under in 2 stages. Where no player data is available I will go on inplay stats.
First lay will be half the HT odds and 2nd lay will be for a literal halving of the odds. So odds of 5.0 at HT become 3.0 and 2.5. If it's too low already like 3.65 or something I may just halve that to 2.34 and do it all then as it can be quite late in the game until another 50 comes off to get to 1.84.
But this way is stopping my liability being higher and allowing the placing of greater stakes in games where the intial price is prohibitive.
Looks extremely promising, Richard!
Thanks Finn
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
And goals:
These carried on producing the goods today with goals in Chongqing and Zaglebie. There was also a goal in Hebei although as that one was 2-1 @ HT it was just for tracking at the moment.
Very early days in the longterm life of a trading strat but at 31 wins from 37 and ave odds taken of 2.82 I think this is very promising.
Not only that but if I include some of the scoreline I'm not yet taking then it's 49 from 58.
The strat is derived from @Martin-Futter's late goals though so it certainly gives me confidence.
The main differences
My scope is 10 matches
Not restricted to current season
Imagine some leagues he doesn't do
When home team and away team numbers are both only 80% these are ruled out (data for these wasn't good)
If 3 or more of the criteria is on the lower side these are ruled out (allows for hopefully only the cream of selections on any given day)
If any H2 goals happen before my lay is matched the game is done
Min 1.15 ave odds for over 0.5 H2 (for this I look at oddsportal.com as it pulls all bookmaker prices together)
At present HT scoreline of 0-0/0-1/1-1 only (hope to include a few more in future)How I'm playing them:
If inplay stats acceptable and/or some/all of the best players on the pitch I will lay the next under in 2 stages. Where no player data is available I will go on inplay stats.
First lay will be half the HT odds and 2nd lay will be for a literal halving of the odds. So odds of 5.0 at HT become 3.0 and 2.5. If it's too low already like 3.65 or something I may just halve that to 2.34 and do it all then as it can be quite late in the game until another 50 comes off to get to 1.84.
But this way is stopping my liability being higher and allowing the placing of greater stakes in games where the intial price is prohibitive.
Looks extremely promising, Richard!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Minnesota qualifies for 2nd half goal so laying under 2.5 @ 3.6 & 3.1.
Too early again.
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Minnesota qualifies for 2nd half goal so laying under 2.5 @ 3.6 & 3.1.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
And goals:
These carried on producing the goods today with goals in Chongqing and Zaglebie. There was also a goal in Hebei although as that one was 2-1 @ HT it was just for tracking at the moment.
Very early days in the longterm life of a trading strat but at 31 wins from 37 and ave odds taken of 2.82 I think this is very promising.
Not only that but if I include some of the scoreline I'm not yet taking then it's 49 from 58.
The strat is derived from @Martin-Futter's late goals though so it certainly gives me confidence.
The main differences
My scope is 10 matches
Not restricted to current season
Imagine some leagues he doesn't do
When home team and away team numbers are both only 80% these are ruled out (data for these wasn't good)
If 3 or more of the criteria is on the lower side these are ruled out (allows for hopefully only the cream of selections on any given day)
If any H2 goals happen before my lay is matched the game is done
Min 1.15 ave odds for over 0.5 H2 (for this I look at oddsportal.com as it pulls all bookmaker prices together)
At present HT scoreline of 0-0/0-1/1-1 only (hope to include a few more in future)How I'm playing them:
If inplay stats acceptable and/or some/all of the best players on the pitch I will lay the next under in 2 stages. Where no player data is available I will go on inplay stats.
First lay will be half the HT odds and 2nd lay will be for a literal halving of the odds. So odds of 5.0 at HT become 3.0 and 2.5. If it's too low already like 3.65 or something I may just halve that to 2.34 and do it all then as it can be quite late in the game until another 50 comes off to get to 1.84.
But this way is stopping my liability being higher and allowing the placing of greater stakes in games where the intial price is prohibitive.
Really really like this! Keep posting about it if you don’t mind, can see this being on the daily email one day!
No problem. I forgot I also exclude promoted/relegated teams as well so data should all be from the same league. Only time that doesn't happen is when the league said teams was promoted from isn't in the database it doesn't know how to handle these and sometimes pulls the data. Hopefully I can spot these but it can make things tricky.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
And goals:
These carried on producing the goods today with goals in Chongqing and Zaglebie. There was also a goal in Hebei although as that one was 2-1 @ HT it was just for tracking at the moment.
Very early days in the longterm life of a trading strat but at 31 wins from 37 and ave odds taken of 2.82 I think this is very promising.
Not only that but if I include some of the scoreline I'm not yet taking then it's 49 from 58.
The strat is derived from @Martin-Futter's late goals though so it certainly gives me confidence.
The main differences
My scope is 10 matches
Not restricted to current season
Imagine some leagues he doesn't do
When home team and away team numbers are both only 80% these are ruled out (data for these wasn't good)
If 3 or more of the criteria is on the lower side these are ruled out (allows for hopefully only the cream of selections on any given day)
If any H2 goals happen before my lay is matched the game is done
Min 1.15 ave odds for over 0.5 H2 (for this I look at oddsportal.com as it pulls all bookmaker prices together)
At present HT scoreline of 0-0/0-1/1-1 only (hope to include a few more in future)How I'm playing them:
If inplay stats acceptable and/or some/all of the best players on the pitch I will lay the next under in 2 stages. Where no player data is available I will go on inplay stats.
First lay will be half the HT odds and 2nd lay will be for a literal halving of the odds. So odds of 5.0 at HT become 3.0 and 2.5. If it's too low already like 3.65 or something I may just halve that to 2.34 and do it all then as it can be quite late in the game until another 50 comes off to get to 1.84.
But this way is stopping my liability being higher and allowing the placing of greater stakes in games where the intial price is prohibitive.
Really really like this! Keep posting about it if you don’t mind, can see this being on the daily email one day!
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@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Need a good bounce back with these tomorrow:
From 47 selections since Aug 1st there have been 4 teams go 2 goals down. The first was in Japan but they'd already secured one leveller (that I didn't get but thats beside the point). They came back from 1-3 down in the end to finish 2-3 despite late pressure.
The next 3 all secured a full comeback with Dundalk, Pyramids and now Backa in Serbia. Going to hold my nerve on the next one and see it out. Cue a loss but I have to play the percentages and right now the percentages are with a full comeback.
I think perhaps if there's 2 matches with heavy liability where I can scratch I may still do that but when you're talking about taking a loss anyway.....
Sorry Richard, is this the dogs or Titanic?
These are the ELO. I just posted the others. Always a much smaller list.
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And finally some more 0-2 lays that won't happen haha!
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And goals:
These carried on producing the goods today with goals in Chongqing and Zaglebie. There was also a goal in Hebei although as that one was 2-1 @ HT it was just for tracking at the moment.
Very early days in the longterm life of a trading strat but at 31 wins from 37 and ave odds taken of 2.82 I think this is very promising.
Not only that but if I include some of the scoreline I'm not yet taking then it's 49 from 58.
The strat is derived from @Martin-Futter's late goals though so it certainly gives me confidence.
The main differences
My scope is 10 matches
Not restricted to current season
Imagine some leagues he doesn't do
When home team and away team numbers are both only 80% these are ruled out (data for these wasn't good)
If 3 or more of the criteria is on the lower side these are ruled out (allows for hopefully only the cream of selections on any given day)
If any H2 goals happen before my lay is matched the game is done
Min 1.15 ave odds for over 0.5 H2 (for this I look at oddsportal.com as it pulls all bookmaker prices together)
At present HT scoreline of 0-0/0-1/1-1 only (hope to include a few more in future)How I'm playing them:
If inplay stats acceptable and/or some/all of the best players on the pitch I will lay the next under in 2 stages. Where no player data is available I will go on inplay stats.
First lay will be half the HT odds and 2nd lay will be for a literal halving of the odds. So odds of 5.0 at HT become 3.0 and 2.5. If it's too low already like 3.65 or something I may just halve that to 2.34 and do it all then as it can be quite late in the game until another 50 comes off to get to 1.84.
But this way is stopping my liability being higher and allowing the placing of greater stakes in games where the intial price is prohibitive.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Need a good bounce back with these tomorrow:
From 47 selections since Aug 1st there have been 4 teams go 2 goals down. The first was in Japan but they'd already secured one leveller (that I didn't get but thats beside the point). They came back from 1-3 down in the end to finish 2-3 despite late pressure.
The next 3 all secured a full comeback with Dundalk, Pyramids and now Backa in Serbia. Going to hold my nerve on the next one and see it out. Cue a loss but I have to play the percentages and right now the percentages are with a full comeback.
I think perhaps if there's 2 matches with heavy liability where I can scratch I may still do that but when you're talking about taking a loss anyway.....
Sorry Richard, is this the dogs or Titanic?
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Need a good bounce back with these tomorrow:
From 47 selections since Aug 1st there have been 4 teams go 2 goals down. The first was in Japan but they'd already secured one leveller (that I didn't get but thats beside the point). They came back from 1-3 down in the end to finish 2-3 despite late pressure.
The next 3 all secured a full comeback with Dundalk, Pyramids and now Backa in Serbia. Going to hold my nerve on the next one and see it out. Cue a loss but I have to play the percentages and right now the percentages are with a full comeback.
I think perhaps if there's 2 matches with heavy liability where I can scratch I may still do that but when you're talking about taking a loss anyway.....
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Day started off great with the goals and ended with a damp squib in the ELO's.
Need to find the best way of playing it when a strong favourite comes back from 2 goals down with 1 goal. I re-lay on the 0-2 always. It's par for the course.
It's what happens after.
Even if the stronger team only makes a comeback 50% of the time is it better to stay in??? I'm not sure at the moment but the last 3 that did this have come back to give everyone a bumper payday. Everyone that is apart from me.
Always more to learn.....
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@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Well I wish you all the best and I think you have developed some filters/strats you can rely an awful lot on!
Thanks
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I think it's a lot easier to stake higher numbers when you've grown those numbers yourself over time.
This is 100% true and the only approach I believe in. It's much less stressful when you risk profits rather than actually invested money and it will make it a lot easier to go fulltime eventually.
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Well I wish you all the best and I think you have developed some filters/strats you can rely an awful lot on!
