Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Under 3.5 lay in already in first game.

Late winners for both 2nd half entries. That's the sweep on first game.

[Richard Latimer]

Under 3.5 lay in already in first game.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

A sizeable list but important to note it's unlikely many will qualify as there are quite strict restrictions in place now to get to qualifier stage:

Revised list as hadn't been through looking to exclude promoted home teams and relegated away teams. Reason for this is I want home teams with form for their average goal tallys so need them playing against similar or better opposition to amass the tallys they have.

Opposite is true of the away team. As I want a dominant home performance living up to their average goal tally I want an away team used to playing against lesser or similar teams rather than one where they've come down a league and will probably bounce straight back up.

[Richard Latimer]

A sizeable list but important to note it's unlikely many will qualify as there are quite strict restrictions in place now to get to qualifier stage:

[Richard Latimer]

I'm above 100 selections again on the LTD. Time to remove some more numbers. I've previously mentioned that high numbers are performing as bad if not worse than the low numbers. Sweet spot is in the middle. Already removed some high numbers. Left the others in there but no improvement, in fact you could argue they have performed worse than prev with Leverkusen being the latest high profile unexpected 0-0.

Back to 90 selections for now.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

From the LTD filter I'm working on (JO.F.F.S):

I'm becoming more risk averse. Want no H2 goals prior to 69 mins unless it's 0-1 @ HT and then an equaliser prior to 60mins will be fine (going on current data):

So 0-0/1-1/0-1 @HT. only 2x 2-2 results so far and it's a 50/50 split.

Providing average bookie price for a H2 goal is 1.12+ as per oddsportal.com I will ltd on 69 and cash as soon as there's a goal.

Amstetten was 2-1 @ HT, tracking the win as it went 2-2 before 60 but nothing else right now.
Telstar goal came way too early as did Maastricht.
Lausanne-Ouchy postponed.
Waregem I was getting ready but goal came 5mins too early for my current plan. It's tracked though as a post 60 mins goal.
Almere, over odds too short.

[Richard Latimer]

Looks like some big potential for tomorrow on the BOGOF front:

Providing the home team doesn't turn out to be a dog or pretty much even stevens (think that's unlikely here) I'll be laying under 3.5 on all pre kick-off. At HT I'll be laying under 1.5 SHG. For the ones with offensive numbers over 2.0 I'll also be laying under 2.5 SHG.

[Richard Latimer]

From the LTD filter I'm working on (JO.F.F.S):

I'm becoming more risk averse. Want no H2 goals prior to 69 mins unless it's 0-1 @ HT and then an equaliser prior to 60mins will be fine (going on current data):

So 0-0/1-1/0-1 @HT. only 2x 2-2 results so far and it's a 50/50 split.

Providing average bookie price for a H2 goal is 1.12+ as per oddsportal.com I will ltd on 69 and cash as soon as there's a goal.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing of any note tomorrow on these

[Richard Latimer]

Jerv didn't qualify as 1-0 @ HT and went 2-0 towards the end.

I said I didn't want to over analyse after the poor result in Singapore but a question I was asked on my sheet (don't know why people do that, if there's any questions ask here) asked whether there was an odds limit on the home team. As everything is geared towards the home team scoring a hatful it's a decent question and one I'd not considered. Lion City yesterday 2.53 ave with the bookies and so I wanted to look into this.

What I'm seeing is consistent numbers all the way up to 2.27 so far. After that, I won't lie it gets a bit more speculative.

Lion City @ 2.53 were just the beginning.

So far from 5 selections, over 3.5 is 1/5.
Over 1.5 SHG is doing much better @ 3/5. That said, the odds are worse and it's probably only a very small gain for those 3 winners.
Over 2.5 SHG is 0/2

Again, I stress early days but it's worth picking these out if to do nothing more than avoid them until there are more results either backing up the claims or debunking them.

So taking these into account just to give the picture so far from 44 games:

Over 3.5 68% s/r (30 wins)
Over 1.5 SHG 73% (32 wins)

From 26 games:

Over 2.5 SHG 50% (13 wins)

[Richard Latimer]

Just Jerv that I'm looking at tomorrow in terms of a H2 goal. I'll be checking ave bookie odds for the over and leaving anything 1.11 or below. Provided all ok I will LTD. on 69mins.

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@Finn-Kristensen says you commented on my sheet but no idea how to access that haha??

Ha - was a mistake. Somehow Google sheets had some default reply options which I pushed on. I deleted it again as soon as I realized it, lol.

That's why I can't find it. I notice there's another comment/question from somebody but no idea who they are.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@Finn-Kristensen says you commented on my sheet but no idea how to access that haha??

Ha - was a mistake. Somehow Google sheets had some default reply options which I pushed on. I deleted it again as soon as I realized it, lol.

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Damp squib in Singapore. I tried to analayse it then realised I really shouldn't. So far got 63% s/r on the over 3.5 with average bookie odds of 1.99 which should be more than enough to profit were it to stay this way.

Also got 71% s/r on over 1.5 goals H2 with average bookie odds of 1.59 which is more likely to be around 1.65-1.7. Again this should be more than good enough if it can maintain.

Over 2.5 SHG is a bonus but 48% with average bookie odds of 2.7 isn't to be sniffed at.

Looks very promising, Richard - especially the O3.5.

Cheers. I just need to not over analyse on one poor result. As I understand itthey missed a one v one at the end too. Typical.

[Richard Latimer]

@Finn-Kristensen says you commented on my sheet but no idea how to access that haha??

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Damp squib in Singapore. I tried to analayse it then realised I really shouldn't. So far got 63% s/r on the over 3.5 with average bookie odds of 1.99 which should be more than enough to profit were it to stay this way.

Also got 71% s/r on over 1.5 goals H2 with average bookie odds of 1.59 which is more likely to be around 1.65-1.7. Again this should be more than good enough if it can maintain.

Over 2.5 SHG is a bonus but 48% with average bookie odds of 2.7 isn't to be sniffed at.

Looks very promising, Richard - especially the O3.5.

[Richard Latimer]

On that note, nothing for tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Damp squib in Singapore. I tried to analayse it then realised I really shouldn't. So far got 63% s/r on the over 3.5 with average bookie odds of 1.99 which should be more than enough to profit were it to stay this way.

Also got 71% s/r on over 1.5 goals H2 with average bookie odds of 1.59 which is more likely to be around 1.65-1.7. Again this should be more than good enough if it can maintain.

Over 2.5 SHG is a bonus but 48% with average bookie odds of 2.7 isn't to be sniffed at.

[Richard Latimer]

The red simply shows that away team have moved up a league since last year. As I'm basing my trade on home average goals more than anything this to me is not a negative but potentially a positive.

[Richard Latimer]

From the recent H2 goals filter I posted that I'm working on:

I'm not blind to the fact I've tried this to death and mindful of that this isn't an entry on 60 mins as prev. I'm only going LTD on 69mins if either drawing @ HT (no prior H2 goals) or 0-1 @ HT and equaliser came before 60.

SO FAR, this would have been very profitable.