Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Apparently Halland missed a sitter at the end but again small green.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

50/50 split on Zilina thank you very much so small green there. Dortmund looking good at present.

Although I see VAR cancelled the 2nd. Early days though.

[Richard Latimer]

50/50 split on Zilina thank you very much so small green there. Dortmund looking good at present.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm back up to 100 selections and the s/r hasn't improved for the next lowest numbers so into room 101 they go. Home offense between 1.25-1.30 see you later!

[Richard Latimer]

More crazy goal games for tomorrow:

Will be laying under 3.5 @ Kickoff and under 1.5 SHG @ HT.

With PSG I will also lay under 2.5 SHG @ HT.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Couple for tomorrow. Odds high in Qatar but then just speaks to what crazy favourites they are I guess.

Both green. The over 2.5 H2 didn't come in on either but that's just a bonus.

[Richard Latimer]

For the 2nd week Bolivia are on the list also but I'm leaving the real early season games for anything I do now. Bolivia will be a very high scoring league though.

[Richard Latimer]

Couple for tomorrow. Odds high in Qatar but then just speaks to what crazy favourites they are I guess.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing high enough to do tomorrow. Only to track so that I eventually have enough data to get rid haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I'm also keeping an eye on the away teams with high away offence but not tracking these YET. One in Singapore tomorrow.

This too would have been a winner on 2 entry points out of 3. Keeping an eye on these but not likely to start recording until I have the other seet in stone. It's worth noting the price to lay under 3.5 would have been around 1.75-1.8 and that was the losing entry point as Lion City scored 3 late goals to win 0-3.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Got one of the crazy scoring games coming up for tomorrow. Yes it's Kawasaki Frontale and they've already won at a canter but Gamba need points as well. Kawasaki won the last game well enough and they'd pretty much secured the title at that point too.

Odds for Over 3.5 likely to be around 2.4ish
Over 1.5 goals H2 around 1.8-1.9 and for 2 SHG it's probably going to be closer to 3.5.

Price steamed in big time but despite Kawasaki securing the title last week they were rampant again.

5-0 FT with 3SHG for a clean sweep on all 3 entry points. Yes I did do it myself. Despite it being very early days these just appear too good not to at the moment.

Lay prices were:

1.92
2.64
1.54

[Richard Latimer]

Thought I'd do a little more analysis on the top numbers although still very early days and anything could yet happen.

From the 35 top selections:

in 21 games both the over 3.5 and SHG over 1.5 came in leaving 14 that didn't.
Of those 14, 50% 7/14 saw at least one of the 2 come in and of course 7/14 were a full loss.

In the 22 games where I would currently want to be going over 2.5SHG I already know 11 won but in this 11 the other bets/trades won as well so when the 11 over 2.5SHG come in so far then so do the over 3.5 and over 1.5SHG.

Question is, will the 21 full wins be enough to counter the 7 full losses if this was to replicate long term. I believe it would. Most of the time a full loss would amount to may be 2-3 points. Maybe looking at -18pts. The full wins would provide 42pts less commission. The 7 half wins as it were would mostly break even but if we're being super conservative we could say half a point loss on each so 3.5pts lost.

This would still give around 20pts profit in such a scenario.

The over 2.5SHG at 50% s/r is a bonus and could easily provide another 3-5pts at a low liability.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm also keeping an eye on the away teams with high away offence but not tracking these YET. One in Singapore tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Got one of the crazy scoring games coming up for tomorrow. Yes it's Kawasaki Frontale and they've already won at a canter but Gamba need points as well. Kawasaki won the last game well enough and they'd pretty much secured the title at that point too.

Odds for Over 3.5 likely to be around 2.4ish
Over 1.5 goals H2 around 1.8-1.9 and for 2 SHG it's probably going to be closer to 3.5.

[Richard Latimer]

Rosenborg soundly beaten tonight even if they did pull 2 goals back late. Would have been way too late to salvage anything and confirms my decision to give these a rest for now. Not like they have nothing to play for either.

[Richard Latimer]

In any case, i now have over 100 selections from my initial idea so time to remove tracking for the lowest numbers. Below 1.25 on the home offence gone. I will continue to track everything over this for the time being.

[Richard Latimer]

And there is a 3rd part which I'm looking into now and will post when I have all the data I want.

[Richard Latimer]

This is the 2nd part:

When removing home offence of under 1.85 SO FAR it's a 50% proposition for over 2.5 SHG. Odds you say. Well here's what I have so far.

The only game so far below evens at the bookes is 1.92 which was Ajax. Almost surely over evens on betfair. Ajax won 5-2 scoring their 3rd SHG in the 95th.
After that between 2.05 - 2.3 (2.2-2.4 on betfair?) it's 2/4.
There are 12 games ranging from 2.42-3.0. Let's be conservative and say this is 2.5-3.2 on betfair. 7 wins and 5 losses.
There are 4 matches above 3.0 ave bookie price and still one winner. That 3.11 so prob closer to 3.3-3.35 on betfair.

[Richard Latimer]

When I remove home offensive ratings below 1.6 it becomes this:

For over 1.5 goals H2 we have 26 wins wins and 9 losses. I've been keeping an eye on the odds as well because what's the point otherwise.

Collecting ave bookie odds which will almost always be beat it's 3 wins no losses YET when odds around 1.3 (to back).
It's 4 wins and 1 loss when odds are in the 1.4's (prob 1.5 on betfair and 3.0 to lay).
7 wins and 2 losses when odds in the 1.5's (I'd imagine in the 1.6's on betfair).
9 wins and 4 losses when in the 1.6's (1.7's on betfair?).
5 selections over that (1.7's-1.8's so prob 1.8's to 1.9's on betfair). 3 wins, 2 losses.

If this were to continue as is at over 70% I can't see how it wouldn't make good money.

That's the first part of it.

[Richard Latimer]

I may have been quiet on the ELO as it stutters and stammers away of recent but it doesn't mean I haven't been working on other stuff. Ready to share what I have so far now.

Just over 100 selections from what I first started tracking and it's 100% ratings based. The raw data isn't hugely impressive. There's enough games with sky high scorelines but there's also plenty where that's not the case. BUT........