Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer I've always thought France was low scoring, seems to be a really defensive league - I have zero stats to back that up just exp!

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

No time like the present and I've had another look at some of the bigger leagues we'll be welcoming back soon.

Netherlands is good
Spain is good
Italy is decent enough
France is a bit MEH.....but not as many selections and as bigger league I would persevere there. It's really only one surprise result that's made it look worse than it is.

The average number of goals per match in France is pretty low, If I recall correctly- that may have something to do with it? Maybe they are just better at shutting down matches when ahead?

Could be. It's one to watch for sure but like I said, it's a big league so for now it stays. Also, in recent years I've noticed a lot of goals and some pretty low over odds in France so maybe the balance is redressing there. You have teams like PSG and to an extent Lyon, Monace, Marseille all pretty free scoring.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

No time like the present and I've had another look at some of the bigger leagues we'll be welcoming back soon.

Netherlands is good
Spain is good
Italy is decent enough
France is a bit MEH.....but not as many selections and as bigger league I would persevere there. It's really only one surprise result that's made it look worse than it is.

The average number of goals per match in France is pretty low, If I recall correctly- that may have something to do with it? Maybe they are just better at shutting down matches when ahead?

[Richard Latimer]

No time like the present and I've had another look at some of the bigger leagues we'll be welcoming back soon.

Netherlands is good
Spain is good
Italy is decent enough
France is a bit MEH.....but not as many selections and a s bigger league I would persevere there. It's really only one surprise result that's made it look worse than it is.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Bit stupid I know but when I get something in to my head I'm like a bullldozer and I delete delete delete.

Think from now on I will collect these excluded leagues on a separate sheet and update p/l there as well. Will be interesting to see what happens.

That's the best approach, I think.

[Richard Latimer]

Bit stupid I know but when I get something in to my head I'm like a bullldozer and I delete delete delete.

Think from now on I will collect these excluded leagues on a separate sheet and update p/l there as well. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@lee-woodman said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer How many games have you got from Belgium?

Well over 20 now.

Yeah, that would be more than enough for me as well.

Lee obviously has a point on removing leagues based on very few data, but as you said, if you have to wait until you have, say 50 selections from a league before you can make a qualified judgment on whether to include or exclude a league, then you'd have to wait a year or two (or, in Costa Rica's case 50 years ), and that is obviously not realistic.

Ideally, you would put the "red" leagues on hold when it comes to selecting them and including the results in the updates, while still keeping records on how they perform to find if they improve (and if the negative results you got were simply a matter of a negative variance for the league in question), however, you have a lot of systems you track and keeping records on selections you are not actually using is probably work you could do without. For leagues with a small number of selections, it doesn't really matter much if you remove them when they shouldn't have been removed, as the potential profits are small anyway, so you don't lose much by removing them. Later, you can always consider checking some of the "red" leagues again to see if they have changed.

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer How many games have you got from Belgium?

Well over 20 now.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer How many games have you got from Belgium?

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I think if you are removing leagues on the basis of performance then you need a decent data set to work from. If you put your filter in place then look at say just Costa Rica and youve only got 5 games from Costa Rica then youre making a decision by analysing just 5 points of data. I do understand the temptation not to trade them as nobody likes to lose but there has to be a hypothesis AND data behind each trade. So why would teams from Costa Rica not be able to equalise when teams from equivalent leagues can? How do you know you havent just started the data from a bad point in the variance and that the next 10 would be winners? If you planned to invest in 10 stocks for 5 years but one dipped after 3 days you wouldnt sell it unless you had another reason

Obviously its your call what you do, i just see people filter out certain leagues purely based on a few results and im never really sure why

It's not just that. There has been only one selection previous in a whole year from Costa Rica. It's more the fact I don't feel I'm losing that much.

Belgium on the other hand, it's pretty hard to argue for those guys. I'm never going to have a massive data set on each league as it will take years. But Belgium has been consistently incomsistent for what I do have.

[A Former User]

I think if you are removing leagues on the basis of performance then you need a decent data set to work from. If you put your filter in place then look at say just Costa Rica and youve only got 5 games from Costa Rica then youre making a decision by analysing just 5 points of data. I do understand the temptation not to trade them as nobody likes to lose but there has to be a hypothesis AND data behind each trade. So why would teams from Costa Rica not be able to equalise when teams from equivalent leagues can? How do you know you havent just started the data from a bad point in the variance and that the next 10 would be winners? If you planned to invest in 10 stocks for 5 years but one dipped after 3 days you wouldnt sell it unless you had another reason

Obviously its your call what you do, i just see people filter out certain leagues purely based on a few results and im never really sure why

[Richard Latimer]

A few potential goal picks:

[Richard Latimer]

This is the only ELO for Monday and it's an overnighter. I'll have to go to bed but if anyone is awake I like Mehico (proposed to my wife there haha). The league is decent and reliable from what I've seen.

[Richard Latimer]

@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer
Richard that is a cracking breakdown, good work! Very interesting! Will be good to see how this forms the daily picks and daily email going forward!

I don’t know how much additional work it would be for you, but it would be interesting to see how the leagues you decide to remove perform still, almost as if they all still appeared on your sheet, BUT if the league title matches any title in “this list to the right of the table with all the bad leagues in” then conditional formatting makes it red! Could be interesting, for science, going forwards. Maybe in 2 years time you’ll look back and think “I’m extra glad I’ve avoided Russia for two years” haha

Well if Martin continues to use Russia you'll see. For me I like clean slate haha! Sorry.

[Daniel Cooper]

@richard-latimer
Richard that is a cracking breakdown, good work! Very interesting! Will be good to see how this forms the daily picks and daily email going forward!

I don’t know how much additional work it would be for you, but it would be interesting to see how the leagues you decide to remove perform still, almost as if they all still appeared on your sheet, BUT if the league title matches any title in “this list to the right of the table with all the bad leagues in” then conditional formatting makes it red! Could be interesting, for science, going forwards. Maybe in 2 years time you’ll look back and think “I’m extra glad I’ve avoided Russia for two years” haha

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer think you have just proven to yourself that its working, the data doesnt lie or show you false opinions. Just keep doing what your doing mate, probably didnt help with the fact your posting these on the forum too which makes you feel bad. Just keep going mate. If the data says dont exclude leagues just starting then fair enough, just was an observation both i and i see martin also queried that start of season you really cant have a good handle on how that game will go from past seasons its just logic. I would say tho to calm down with the rage after the los angeles game. Seeing you meltdown like that wasnt great, like i said on the football thread get through the weekend and then take a look at the overall view of the strat. Dont panic take a look at my sheets i go on bad runs too but its the back testing we have done that shows it will come back and then grow beyond that point, just like in the stock market it will come back again and better.

Yeah it appeared worse on the screen than it was, I was just letting out a little anger on my keys before bed haha!!

I think first game of the season is a no brainer now. I think back to Premier league seasons where Arsenal have lost at home to Villa etc. I may have to remove more than that going forward but this last month I think it's been some of the leagues themselves doing the damage. Would never have thought oof Belgium being so unreliable with their big few teams but it's not what the data is showing me for sure. Loads of qualifiers, just not many comebacks.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer think you have just proven to yourself that its working, the data doesnt lie or show you false opinions. Just keep doing what your doing mate, probably didnt help with the fact your posting these on the forum too which makes you feel bad. Just keep going mate. If the data says dont exclude leagues just starting then fair enough, just was an observation both i and i see martin also queried that start of season you really cant have a good handle on how that game will go from past seasons its just logic. I would say tho to calm down with the rage after the los angeles game. Seeing you meltdown like that wasnt great, like i said on the football thread get through the weekend and then take a look at the overall view of the strat. Dont panic take a look at my sheets i go on bad runs too but its the back testing we have done that shows it will come back and then grow beyond that point, just like in the stock market it will come back again and better.

[Richard Latimer]

My plan of action

Remove first game of the new season
Remove Belgium
Remove Costa Rica
Remove Russia
Remove USA
Remove Belarus

Very close to removing Ireland but I want to see what happens there first.

As is, other than USA and Belgium these aren't a total surprise.

For other restarting leagues I'm going to look back at my old sheet before diving in to see what the records tell me.

[Richard Latimer]

Oh, also there was Flamengo today. 7 matches in to the season. Another green. Shame I didn't take it.

[Richard Latimer]

Ok, time to analyse the s**t out of what has been happening on the ELO this month as well revisit some leagues and ask myself if there's any point in doing them anymore.

Firstly, I've gone through August to see which selections have been made at the start of the season, counting how many matches each has played and then totalling them. I've not gone home/away on this as I just want to see if it makes a difference as leagues settle down.

0 games - The very first fixture for each team of the season: 5 trades in total broken down as 2 wins, 2 smaller losses negating those wins and 1 heavy loss in Brazil. Brazil has been a decent league so I think this is quite telling.

1 game - 2 matches, both in Egypt. 1 win and 1 smaller loss which if I'd held on could also have been a win. I mentioned Egypt before. Egypt has been good so far.

2 games - 4 trades in total.A small loss in Serbia (Serbia has been one of the best performing leagues and favourites frequently give you an opportunity by dropping a goal or 2. 1 winner and 1 small loser in Belgium so small green overall there but Belgium...hmph!!! All I've got to say at the moment haha! Lastly Costa Rica 1 loss which would have been a bigger one I believe but luckily it happened at 3am when I was fast asleep licking my wounds. A quick check on Costa Rica so far and it's given me one selection I was able to get on in over a year. It was a winner but all the same.

3 games - 0 trades

4 games - 8 trades
1 small loss in Paraguay - A good league which up until Aug had given me 6 green and 2 reds.
1 win in China - A good league which up until Aug had given me 6 greens and 1 red.
1 more win in Serbia
1 small loss in Slovakia - 4 trades on my old sheet with 2 wins and 2 small losses coming out just less than break even. Would have been a win with my old way of doing things rather than going back in. That said, the only other away qualifier involved the same weaker team and they duly obliged and lost. The jury is out in Slovakia.
1 win in Russia. Before I made the strat public I had already come to the conclusion Russia was a bad egg then a few people got wins there and I decided to give it another try. Once more Russia is now slightly in the red.
1 win and a heavy old loss in Belgium. I looked back to my old sheet and Belgium is a cesspool of disappointment! 19 trades, 3 losses over 1pt, 8 smaller losses and 8 greens. In total it's a losing proposition by around 3pts. And these losses aren't near the beginning of the season. If anything they become more prevalent as the season progresses.
This leads me to the States where the one final heavy loss on 4 games was felt. The States are great for goals but nobody ever talks about how dominant one team is. I guess that's because they're not. In total on my last sheet I had 2 matches. Not much to go on but ultimately they're not going to be missed either. 1 win and 1 loss over a pt for an overall loss. In addition there's another loser in the USL to add to the loswer in Aug. No benefit to the USL on these and it would seem there is no benefit to the MSL either.

5 matches. 1 trade and that was the green in Athlone.

6 matches gave 3 trades. 1 small loser in China and the heavier loser in Ural from Saturday. Russia again. Not content with rigging elections around the world they are happy to lose me green on the football too haha! Plus there was also a winner in Tunisia. That was the first in Tunisia although perhaps this is down to betfair markets more than anything. I know there was a qualifier recently that wasn't on betfair which would have been profitable.

7 matches gave 1 green in Paraguay and 1 heavier loss in Ireland where Dundalk missed that penalty on purpose just to upset me. In terms of Ireland I have no trades at all on prev sheet which is mad. I've not excluded them but they are just not there.

8 matches, 2 success stories in Mehico and another in China. Plus 1 more in Serbia which would have been if I'd held my nerve.

9 matches - The failure in USL

12 matches - 1 loser in Japan which should have been small but I missed the first and only laid the 2nd time they conceded. They then proceeded to concede again and didn't quite get it back. Plus 1 green in Finland.

14 matches - 1 green in Japan

15 matches - Another green in Japan

18 matches - 1 green in Sweden

20 matches - 1 heavier red in Finland. Finland has been pretty much break even. Jury is out there.

24 matches - 2 greens in Sweden, 1 in Japan. By the way, Japan as a country for this is very good. On my sheet last year I only had greens and smaller losses.

25 matches - 2 in Norway. 1 good, one small bad but Norway in general has been a good league for this.

26 matches - Another green in Norway and a 50/50 split in Sweden. A quick look at my records and Sweden is probably the best league for this full stop.

28 matches - 3 more greens in Sweden, 1 green in Korea.

30 matches - 1 red in Korea. Korea is generally good though.

32 matches 1 green and 1 small red in Sweden.

40 matches 1 small red in Belarus. Belarus is in the red. Now that we have proper football back, I'm not so sure I can be bothered to persevere with this backward nation. 6 wins on the last sheet but 3 heavier losses and 3 smaller losses. In addition to this that heavier loss was the BATE one where the lay odds were still 6.0. Not sure this is a league I'd want to be laying @ 6.0 again in future.

Lastly there's Qatar. A bloody brilliant league for this. I'd not realised that they are in the middle of their season but that they had such a massive break it's almost like a new season. So one game was 3 matches in from the restart and it was green. Another was 8 in from the restart and it was green. The other was the green in Dundalk 4 matches in from restart.

Matches are all combined numbers so 4 games in is likely 2 for each team.

A few leagues to exclude and I actually think that is more important than getting rid of early season.

DAMN I NEEDED THIS!!!!!!