Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer How many games have you got from Belgium?
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@lee-woodman said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I think if you are removing leagues on the basis of performance then you need a decent data set to work from. If you put your filter in place then look at say just Costa Rica and youve only got 5 games from Costa Rica then youre making a decision by analysing just 5 points of data. I do understand the temptation not to trade them as nobody likes to lose but there has to be a hypothesis AND data behind each trade. So why would teams from Costa Rica not be able to equalise when teams from equivalent leagues can? How do you know you havent just started the data from a bad point in the variance and that the next 10 would be winners? If you planned to invest in 10 stocks for 5 years but one dipped after 3 days you wouldnt sell it unless you had another reason
Obviously its your call what you do, i just see people filter out certain leagues purely based on a few results and im never really sure why
It's not just that. There has been only one selection previous in a whole year from Costa Rica. It's more the fact I don't feel I'm losing that much.
Belgium on the other hand, it's pretty hard to argue for those guys. I'm never going to have a massive data set on each league as it will take years. But Belgium has been consistently incomsistent for what I do have.
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I think if you are removing leagues on the basis of performance then you need a decent data set to work from. If you put your filter in place then look at say just Costa Rica and youve only got 5 games from Costa Rica then youre making a decision by analysing just 5 points of data. I do understand the temptation not to trade them as nobody likes to lose but there has to be a hypothesis AND data behind each trade. So why would teams from Costa Rica not be able to equalise when teams from equivalent leagues can? How do you know you havent just started the data from a bad point in the variance and that the next 10 would be winners? If you planned to invest in 10 stocks for 5 years but one dipped after 3 days you wouldnt sell it unless you had another reason
Obviously its your call what you do, i just see people filter out certain leagues purely based on a few results and im never really sure why
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A few potential goal picks:
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This is the only ELO for Monday and it's an overnighter. I'll have to go to bed but if anyone is awake I like Mehico (proposed to my wife there haha). The league is decent and reliable from what I've seen.
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@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer
Richard that is a cracking breakdown, good work! Very interesting! Will be good to see how this forms the daily picks and daily email going forward!I don’t know how much additional work it would be for you, but it would be interesting to see how the leagues you decide to remove perform still, almost as if they all still appeared on your sheet, BUT if the league title matches any title in “this list to the right of the table with all the bad leagues in” then conditional formatting makes it red! Could be interesting, for science, going forwards. Maybe in 2 years time you’ll look back and think “I’m extra glad I’ve avoided Russia for two years” haha
Well if Martin continues to use Russia you'll see. For me I like clean slate haha! Sorry.
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@richard-latimer
Richard that is a cracking breakdown, good work! Very interesting! Will be good to see how this forms the daily picks and daily email going forward!I don’t know how much additional work it would be for you, but it would be interesting to see how the leagues you decide to remove perform still, almost as if they all still appeared on your sheet, BUT if the league title matches any title in “this list to the right of the table with all the bad leagues in” then conditional formatting makes it red! Could be interesting, for science, going forwards. Maybe in 2 years time you’ll look back and think “I’m extra glad I’ve avoided Russia for two years” haha
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer think you have just proven to yourself that its working, the data doesnt lie or show you false opinions. Just keep doing what your doing mate, probably didnt help with the fact your posting these on the forum too which makes you feel bad. Just keep going mate. If the data says dont exclude leagues just starting then fair enough, just was an observation both i and i see martin also queried that start of season you really cant have a good handle on how that game will go from past seasons its just logic. I would say tho to calm down with the rage after the los angeles game. Seeing you meltdown like that wasnt great, like i said on the football thread get through the weekend and then take a look at the overall view of the strat. Dont panic take a look at my sheets i go on bad runs too but its the back testing we have done that shows it will come back and then grow beyond that point, just like in the stock market it will come back again and better.
Yeah it appeared worse on the screen than it was, I was just letting out a little anger on my keys before bed haha!!
I think first game of the season is a no brainer now. I think back to Premier league seasons where Arsenal have lost at home to Villa etc. I may have to remove more than that going forward but this last month I think it's been some of the leagues themselves doing the damage. Would never have thought oof Belgium being so unreliable with their big few teams but it's not what the data is showing me for sure. Loads of qualifiers, just not many comebacks.
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@richard-latimer think you have just proven to yourself that its working, the data doesnt lie or show you false opinions. Just keep doing what your doing mate, probably didnt help with the fact your posting these on the forum too which makes you feel bad. Just keep going mate. If the data says dont exclude leagues just starting then fair enough, just was an observation both i and i see martin also queried that start of season you really cant have a good handle on how that game will go from past seasons its just logic. I would say tho to calm down with the rage after the los angeles game. Seeing you meltdown like that wasnt great, like i said on the football thread get through the weekend and then take a look at the overall view of the strat. Dont panic take a look at my sheets i go on bad runs too but its the back testing we have done that shows it will come back and then grow beyond that point, just like in the stock market it will come back again and better.
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My plan of action
Remove first game of the new season
Remove Belgium
Remove Costa Rica
Remove Russia
Remove USA
Remove BelarusVery close to removing Ireland but I want to see what happens there first.
As is, other than USA and Belgium these aren't a total surprise.
For other restarting leagues I'm going to look back at my old sheet before diving in to see what the records tell me.
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Oh, also there was Flamengo today. 7 matches in to the season. Another green. Shame I didn't take it.
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Ok, time to analyse the s**t out of what has been happening on the ELO this month as well revisit some leagues and ask myself if there's any point in doing them anymore.
Firstly, I've gone through August to see which selections have been made at the start of the season, counting how many matches each has played and then totalling them. I've not gone home/away on this as I just want to see if it makes a difference as leagues settle down.
0 games - The very first fixture for each team of the season: 5 trades in total broken down as 2 wins, 2 smaller losses negating those wins and 1 heavy loss in Brazil. Brazil has been a decent league so I think this is quite telling.
1 game - 2 matches, both in Egypt. 1 win and 1 smaller loss which if I'd held on could also have been a win. I mentioned Egypt before. Egypt has been good so far.
2 games - 4 trades in total.A small loss in Serbia (Serbia has been one of the best performing leagues and favourites frequently give you an opportunity by dropping a goal or 2. 1 winner and 1 small loser in Belgium so small green overall there but Belgium...hmph!!! All I've got to say at the moment haha! Lastly Costa Rica 1 loss which would have been a bigger one I believe but luckily it happened at 3am when I was fast asleep licking my wounds. A quick check on Costa Rica so far and it's given me one selection I was able to get on in over a year. It was a winner but all the same.
3 games - 0 trades
4 games - 8 trades
1 small loss in Paraguay - A good league which up until Aug had given me 6 green and 2 reds.
1 win in China - A good league which up until Aug had given me 6 greens and 1 red.
1 more win in Serbia
1 small loss in Slovakia - 4 trades on my old sheet with 2 wins and 2 small losses coming out just less than break even. Would have been a win with my old way of doing things rather than going back in. That said, the only other away qualifier involved the same weaker team and they duly obliged and lost. The jury is out in Slovakia.
1 win in Russia. Before I made the strat public I had already come to the conclusion Russia was a bad egg then a few people got wins there and I decided to give it another try. Once more Russia is now slightly in the red.
1 win and a heavy old loss in Belgium. I looked back to my old sheet and Belgium is a cesspool of disappointment! 19 trades, 3 losses over 1pt, 8 smaller losses and 8 greens. In total it's a losing proposition by around 3pts. And these losses aren't near the beginning of the season. If anything they become more prevalent as the season progresses.
This leads me to the States where the one final heavy loss on 4 games was felt. The States are great for goals but nobody ever talks about how dominant one team is. I guess that's because they're not. In total on my last sheet I had 2 matches. Not much to go on but ultimately they're not going to be missed either. 1 win and 1 loss over a pt for an overall loss. In addition there's another loser in the USL to add to the loswer in Aug. No benefit to the USL on these and it would seem there is no benefit to the MSL either.5 matches. 1 trade and that was the green in Athlone.
6 matches gave 3 trades. 1 small loser in China and the heavier loser in Ural from Saturday. Russia again. Not content with rigging elections around the world they are happy to lose me green on the football too haha! Plus there was also a winner in Tunisia. That was the first in Tunisia although perhaps this is down to betfair markets more than anything. I know there was a qualifier recently that wasn't on betfair which would have been profitable.
7 matches gave 1 green in Paraguay and 1 heavier loss in Ireland where Dundalk missed that penalty on purpose just to upset me. In terms of Ireland I have no trades at all on prev sheet which is mad. I've not excluded them but they are just not there.
8 matches, 2 success stories in Mehico and another in China. Plus 1 more in Serbia which would have been if I'd held my nerve.
9 matches - The failure in USL
12 matches - 1 loser in Japan which should have been small but I missed the first and only laid the 2nd time they conceded. They then proceeded to concede again and didn't quite get it back. Plus 1 green in Finland.
14 matches - 1 green in Japan
15 matches - Another green in Japan
18 matches - 1 green in Sweden
20 matches - 1 heavier red in Finland. Finland has been pretty much break even. Jury is out there.
24 matches - 2 greens in Sweden, 1 in Japan. By the way, Japan as a country for this is very good. On my sheet last year I only had greens and smaller losses.
25 matches - 2 in Norway. 1 good, one small bad but Norway in general has been a good league for this.
26 matches - Another green in Norway and a 50/50 split in Sweden. A quick look at my records and Sweden is probably the best league for this full stop.
28 matches - 3 more greens in Sweden, 1 green in Korea.
30 matches - 1 red in Korea. Korea is generally good though.
32 matches 1 green and 1 small red in Sweden.
40 matches 1 small red in Belarus. Belarus is in the red. Now that we have proper football back, I'm not so sure I can be bothered to persevere with this backward nation. 6 wins on the last sheet but 3 heavier losses and 3 smaller losses. In addition to this that heavier loss was the BATE one where the lay odds were still 6.0. Not sure this is a league I'd want to be laying @ 6.0 again in future.
Lastly there's Qatar. A bloody brilliant league for this. I'd not realised that they are in the middle of their season but that they had such a massive break it's almost like a new season. So one game was 3 matches in from the restart and it was green. Another was 8 in from the restart and it was green. The other was the green in Dundalk 4 matches in from restart.
Matches are all combined numbers so 4 games in is likely 2 for each team.
A few leagues to exclude and I actually think that is more important than getting rid of early season.
DAMN I NEEDED THIS!!!!!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I'm renaming it after today. Instead of Won't Stay Down, it will from now on be known as 'Can't Get Up'.
I'm angry. I need to go to bed haha!!
Is it wrong I want the Los Angeles FC players to burn in a pit of firey hell haha??!
Yeah I'm definitely still not the robot I aspire to be.
why are you taking on the early season games out of interest? also are the US games serious ones this season, it's a strange set up for them now?
i really wouldn't get upset mate it's a good system.
When I started this there was no real difference in the early season games or not. USA are out of their crappy little Orlando tournament and back in home venues so I think it's their season proper now.
I feel better this morning. Just a very bad day. I notice that an overnighter in Costa Rica lost as well. Thing to tell myself is that if dogs won that easily every time they take the lead we'd be alll over them and that's not the case at all.
Just an anomaly.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I'm renaming it after today. Instead of Won't Stay Down, it will from now on be known as 'Can't Get Up'.
I'm angry. I need to go to bed haha!!
Is it wrong I want the Los Angeles FC players to burn in a pit of firey hell haha??!
Yeah I'm definitely still not the robot I aspire to be.
why are you taking on the early season games out of interest? also are the US games serious ones this season, it's a strange set up for them now?
i really wouldn't get upset mate it's a good system.
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Right, I'm off for some much needed refreshment. ie bed.
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I'm renaming it after today. Instead of Won't Stay Down, it will from now on be known as 'Can't Get Up'.
I'm angry. I need to go to bed haha!!
Is it wrong I want the Los Angeles FC players to burn in a pit of firey hell haha??!
Yeah I'm definitely still not the robot I aspire to be.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Ouch
Looks like a graph of the current economy
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If anyone still has the slightest bit of faith in these after today here they are:
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Let's start with the good stuff. Goal picks saved my bacon today big time! They are currently at an unsustainable 30% yield and 85% s/r from around 64mins in. The crazy thing is it doesn't change massively from 70 minutes in hence why I've been trying to split the stake recently most of the time.
On top of the ones I put money on Hafnarf and some Ruskies made good on a 2-0 HT score and these are now looking pretty good. A few more wins on those and I will add them to the real deal.
2-1 in Javor failed but then I think that's the longterm outlook there. Still tracking but 2 wins and 2 losses doesn't fill me with hope so far.
Finallly Cherno More were 1-2 @ HT and that one finished 1-4 with a late goal starting it off 73rd minute. Again this was just for tracking at this stage.
It's also important to note that these are not teams with really short odds on the over. Generally speaking the max score @ HT tends to be around 6.0 and often way shorter.
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@michael-ellner said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Day started off great with the goals and ended with a damp squib in the ELO's.
Need to find the best way of playing it when a strong favourite comes back from 2 goals down with 1 goal. I re-lay on the 0-2 always. It's par for the course.
It's what happens after.
Even if the stronger team only makes a comeback 50% of the time is it better to stay in??? I'm not sure at the moment but the last 3 that did this have come back to give everyone a bumper payday. Everyone that is apart from me.
Always more to learn.....
I've been doing the same as you and using it as an opportunity to take out the red rather than staying in for a big green.
I think I'll carry on doing it this way for now as getting rid of the red on a trade that's not gone according to plan feels like a win to me and with higher stakes in the future I think it's the safer way to go....unless they keep drawing level then I'll have a rethink.I may start removing the additional liability where possible and leave it for a bit. Had a quick discussion with Martin on the private coaching and this what he mainly does.
