Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Also nothing to stop you taking the sheet as your own and pasting ratings in. I copy it a blank sheet. Remove first column then insert a column after game type, after home elo and after home offence. Also 2 columns after goal expectancy and superiority. These are where my formulas go when I paste it into the main sheet.

Just drag down the formulas for the new day. And get rid of anything that doesn't meet requirements.

Hope you managed with overnight games. I'll be posting in a bit but Paraguay at 00:30 is one. Cerro Porteno the better team.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm pulling Titanic. Not because it doesn't work but because from the 17/06 I have 27 selections. Almost 3 months so under 10 selections a month.

I'm not pulling up any trees with that.

[Richard Latimer]

Also nothing to stop you taking the sheet as your own and pasting ratings in. I copy it a blank sheet. Remove first column then insert a column after game type, after home elo and after home offence. Also 2 columns after goal expectancy and superiority. These are where my formulas go when I paste it into the main sheet.

Just drag down the formulas for the new day. And get rid of anything that doesn't meet requirements.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

These are the good ones coming up:

There's a Belgian one and a Russian one on the list of seconds as well if anyone feels like playing Russian Roulette haha!
Can you get your stuff on any earlier? Sometimes miss the overnight games.

There was nothing qualified last night. Been doing a lot of going back to get further details I hadn't recorded initially for stuff I'm working on so has taken a bit of time.

I try and get one day finished before I start another but so much overlap right now. They often go on the sheet before I post as well so worth checking there.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

These are the good ones coming up:

There's a Belgian one and a Russian one on the list of seconds as well if anyone feels like playing Russian Roulette haha!
Can you get your stuff on any earlier? Sometimes miss the overnight games.

[Richard Latimer]

These are the good ones coming up:

There's a Belgian one and a Russian one on the list of seconds as well if anyone feels like playing Russian Roulette haha!

[Richard Latimer]

Just what I needed today. 3 decent trades and around 2.5pts green. Only around 5pts down for Sept now.

H2 goals in Wycombe and Rodez. I know these are early season but for goals my strike rate gives me no reason to exclude these at present.

Also a nice comeback by Ludogorets giving more credence to the bar I've set for minimum number of games to have passed in a season.

[Richard Latimer]

Titanic:

Already missed Shimizu but doubt there was much in it for a goal back 10 minutes before time.

[Richard Latimer]

H2 goals (potential):

[Richard Latimer]

Ok so really not helped myself missing the double bubble this morning and yesterday was pants. Made a small error and had 4 losing trades from my plan. Not to worry. Sept is in deficit by around 7pts but it can and will come back:

ELO Selections (including missed in Korea):

There are more on the list of dodgy countries/leagues but I won't be touching them. On the sheet if anyone wants to see.

[Richard Latimer]

Although it makes sense on the ELO's I can't quite bring myself to do it yet on the H2 goals as so far I'm at 77% s/r on these early season games and it's not a just a few. Will watch this space for time being.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Having to have a rethink as my decent gains over the past month are being eaten up. Would be all too easy to slip back into bad ways and go back to square one but I can't let that happen.

I bow down to those in the know and despite thinking I can play these early season games the results bear out I can't regardless of what league.

Seem to see a real upturn in results after 7 or 8 games have been played so that's where I'm setting my stall out for now. That's not 7 or 8 home/away games per team but a combined 7 or 8 league games full stop.

Totally missed Gwangju lay this morning, twice over now. Damn early games on the weekend haha!!

I think that's the sensible thing to do. Let the form settle a bit before jumping in.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Sounds sensible with regards to early season games

[Richard Latimer]

Having to have a rethink as my decent gains over the past month are being eaten up. Would be all too easy to slip back into bad ways and go back to square one but I can't let that happen.

I bow down to those in the know and despite thinking I can play these early season games the results bear out I can't regardless of what league.

Seem to see a real upturn in results after 7 or 8 games have been played so that's where I'm setting my stall out for now. That's not 7 or 8 home/away games per team but a combined 7 or 8 league games full stop.

Totally missed Gwangju lay this morning, twice over now. Damn early games on the weekend haha!!

[Richard Latimer]

Finally, the Titanic filter for laying away when 0-2 up:

Very much a non entity most of the time.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

For H2 goals:

Some first day of the season but not ruling these out completely from the H2 goal picks. Will monitor and make decision based on odds, who's playing, inplay stats etc...

That said, Selangor I'm adding to a list of not so sure's.

[Richard Latimer]

For H2 goals:

Some first day of the season but not ruling these out completely from the H2 goal picks. Will monitor and make decision based on odds, who's playing, inplay stats etc...

[Richard Latimer]

No work today while I await the results of a Covid test for my son from yesterday. Can see this becoming the new norm now.

Plenty of ELO's today although some have been ruled out immediately as it's the first day of the season. Others are are split into the good list and the watch/track list.

Good ones first:

For tracking only:

The second list is way longer and before my new found discipline I would have careered into all these but. Ukraine has been no more than a 50/50 proposition so far (close to Russia, maybe this is why haha!), Azerbaijan I either have no data on or removed previously (either way I'll track now), Malta I definitely removed (now tracking), Armenia I can't recall but there is no data, Kazak 1 small loss and nothing else, Hungary 1 larger loss and nothing else.

Belgium is well documented. I continue to track but it has been awful for well over a year.

Finally, Ireland not looking great so continue to monitor.

[Richard Latimer]

My spreadsheet is updated again as always with everything on there including the overnighters. Monitoring Indy Eleven for a H2 goal but it' 1-0 at the moment and that HT scoreline would rule it out for me.

Other than that there's Beijing which is both a home ELO fave and potential H2 goal depending on odds. I'll look to post up properly Thu afternoon when I'm back from work.

[Richard Latimer]

@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

How have the ELO's been last few days?

Yeah not bad. Trouble is Libertad was the day of the ratings going down so I only got the fixture when it was too late and Monterrey was overnight so I was in bed. Aside from that it's pretty much break even. The month hasn't got going yet but I'm only just over a pt down.