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Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
5.5k Posts 81 Posters 436.5k Views
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3541

    No BOGOF's tomorrow

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by Richard Latimer
    #3542

    JOFFS average but in a world where nothing else was I guess that's some kind of a bonus. Jury out on France but then jury out on all of them at the moment haha!

    0_1608504374736_5aa915cd-7c9d-4a05-84e0-558d9123a08e-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3543

    I decided to give the BOGOF a miss today to concentrate on other stuff. Would have been small green and again just sums up the weekend. Think there's legs here. Just need to keep collecting data for leagues.

    0_1608504151367_f1af5cbe-d3f4-48fa-9ab4-19a75e451d13-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #3544

    @richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    Playing it safe with the BOGOFS:

    0_1608371105947_824d841b-1da4-4f59-bdb2-2f4e6d69e379-image.png

    Only going to take the Norwegian and Bolivian games on as this is the first in India and NI. May take all 3 entries though.

    After all that I didn't even do Bodo which will probably coast to a win haha! Leaving the last game tonight now as well. Sods law it will lose.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3545

    Potentially Leipzig, Gladbach & Basel if odds come down. Think I'll stay away from Odd in this one as they have nothing to play for.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3546

    the same filter, as I'm looking at different way to exploit it. May back over 2.5 on home faves under evens, odds dependent, 22 minutes in with the idea to remove red after first goal:

    0_1608372439977_6463bcce-6b94-4659-80e6-fa6ffdece690-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3547

    JOFFS:

    0_1608371445003_f02fe497-47f2-4bed-9c5a-3cb907f469ee-image.png

    Had Basel on the list but I think it's the weakest of the lot and already had a recent loss in that league so just tracking that one. Had a quick look at over 1.5% for H2 and it's only at 45%.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3548

    Playing it safe with the BOGOFS:

    0_1608371105947_824d841b-1da4-4f59-bdb2-2f4e6d69e379-image.png

    Only going to take the Norwegian and Bolivian games on as this is the first in India and NI. May take all 3 entries though.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Finn Kristensen on last edited by
    #3549

    @finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    @richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    Potential LTD's/LCS:

    0_1608246198595_8586c9d0-1c91-41ac-ace6-23fc5b7e0c7e-image.png

    I've got 50 selections post 70 for a decent strike rate of 86% so far and 74 selections for a strike rate of just under 91% 67/74 when entering in the 60th minute.

    Playing it cautious at present taking LTD and waiting until later. If that strike rate continues (and it means excluding certain leagues, lower prices,certain score lines and match situations) I will almost certainly start doing LCS @ 60 in the future.

    That's some incredible stats and should be very profitable if sustainable. 👍

    fingers crossed. It's normally when I start talking about something it crashes and burns haha! What I'm doing at the moment is using one filter and looking at all the different directions it could take me in rather than trying to spread myself too thin.

    Concentrating on overall goal averages, home team averages across both halves and home odds mainly. Figure the home team is meant to be the team to come out and dictate the play so their averages are more likely to remain stable than the away team which could go up and down. It's a theory.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Finn KristensenF Offline
    Finn KristensenF Offline
    Finn Kristensen
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #3550

    @richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    Potential LTD's/LCS:

    0_1608246198595_8586c9d0-1c91-41ac-ace6-23fc5b7e0c7e-image.png

    I've got 50 selections post 70 for a decent strike rate of 86% so far and 74 selections for a strike rate of just under 91% 67/74 when entering in the 60th minute.

    Playing it cautious at present taking LTD and waiting until later. If that strike rate continues (and it means excluding certain leagues, lower prices,certain score lines and match situations) I will almost certainly start doing LCS @ 60 in the future.

    That's some incredible stats and should be very profitable if sustainable. 👍

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3551

    Potential LTD's/LCS:

    0_1608246198595_8586c9d0-1c91-41ac-ace6-23fc5b7e0c7e-image.png

    I've got 50 selections post 70 for a decent strike rate of 86% so far and 74 selections for a strike rate of just under 91% 67/74 when entering in the 60th minute.

    Playing it cautious at present taking LTD and waiting until later. If that strike rate continues (and it means excluding certain leagues, lower prices,certain score lines and match situations) I will almost certainly start doing LCS @ 60 in the future.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Finn KristensenF 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #3552

    @richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    Nothing with good enough numbers for the BOGOF tomorrow.

    Nothing even close tomorrow. Give me more chance to look at all the other stuff I'm working on.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3553

    Nothing with good enough numbers for the BOGOF tomorrow.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3554

    Big letdown tonight after the reliable Kawasaki Frontale had given such a good start.

    Germany Bundesliga looking poor for the BOGOF's. Seems there's now a few leagues to avoid. Can't be helped.

    On the JOFFS it was the turn of Switzerland's top league to go into my bad books. They've been there before to be fair so it's not a massive surprise. Will be avoiding them until the stats suggest otherwise.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3555

    Already posted Real Potosi earlier but here's another reminder along with potentials for tomorrow (LTD - JOFFS):

    0_1608072920757_2aa6c9b7-b896-4b04-9b4d-cbae51fd09d7-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3556

    Wed BOGOF's:

    PSG qualify but I'm dumping that league for now. They've let me down too much already.

    0_1608072023747_92210cc6-3466-40ce-bb46-52ddf0199713-image.png

    Kawasaki Frontale have already won by a distance but they're still putting up some big numbers!

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #3557

    @richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    @richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:

    Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero

    3-0 @ HT so job almost done. Laying under 4.5 for H2.

    If only they were all so easy!

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #3558

    @richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:

    Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero

    3-0 @ HT so job almost done. Laying under 4.5 for H2.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3559

    Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:

    Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #3560

    @richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

    New day tomorrow (or today even):

    Putting away the over 2.5 SHG for now (still tracking). Initial s/r has gone down a little (as is to be expected at those odds) and it's not what I need in terms of bank building right now. I believe the 2 entry points being over 3.5 pre-game and over 1.5 SHG should be a more stable journey with less bumps on the road. Some good games for tomorrow so we will see.

    0_1607825621315_6031acd6-e4b6-422b-b98b-6ac74ab2cf64-image.png

    Important to note that while initial results have settled down from the crazy high I saw immediately they are still decent and more than good enough to make a healthy profit should that be where things end up longterm.

    61% on over 3.5 @ ave odds 2.00 (that's bookie price - betfair will be higher in most cases) plus knowing 1-0 or 0-1 is an easy exit route for only minimal red as opposed to the high likelihood that entry losing.

    71% on over 1.5 SHG (ave bookie odds 1.6 and in most cases betfair will be higher) should provide a good 10-15% yield over time if it continues in that manner).

    May do similar with the over 3.5 and concentrate on the H2 plays. Was good in that respect until PSG stunk it up. France seems to be almost as bad for this as the prem.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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