Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

If Arad go 0-2 down it's a lay on the away:

[Richard Latimer]

Going to hope for an opportunity to put this one in Uruguay into Action in a bit:

Need 0-0/0-1/1-1@HT to enter. Also decent enough odds and attacking threat/good enough inplay stats. Once I have this I will lay the next under to hopefully match around 65-70 mins.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

ELO's from largely untested countries on Thursday (one in Ecuador and one in Kazak):

Glad I didn't jump in. Ecuador would have been a loss last night. Either a small traded loss or an outright loss but a loss just the same. Time to see if the Kazaks have what it takes.

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's from largely untested countries on Thursday (one in Ecuador and one in Kazak):

[Richard Latimer]

If the home team goes behindd 0-2 I will lay away:

[Richard Latimer]

Potential H2 goals if the moon is in Jupiter:

I keep talking about how awful Russia is, prob wouldn't do that one. Also Morocco. Doubt I'd bothere there either. EDIT: Morocco cancelled anyway.

[Richard Latimer]

Absolutely zero, nada, zilch today.

Tomorrow:

And from the stable of it may do ok but then again I have nothing to back that up:

[Richard Latimer]

Also, on my Titanic filter is this:

Lay away if 0-2 up.

[Richard Latimer]

2nd half goal picks. For detils of how I play them, when I play them or even if I play them scroll up.

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's for Tuesday:

Won't Stay Down (leagues I'm happy with)

Can't Get Up (leagues I no longer trust)

Prob won't qualify anyway but if it does I'm staying away. Knock yourself out if you want to have a go haha!

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer I could watch Mbappe play football everyday and not get bored my lord what a player

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer I've always thought France was low scoring, seems to be a really defensive league - I have zero stats to back that up just exp!

I think it used to be but maybe PSG and those running to catch up have changed that culture a little.

[A Former User]

@Richard-Latimer excellent analysis and update and validates what you’ve been doing.

Shows us what analysis we need to do at times if having doubts

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer I've always thought France was low scoring, seems to be a really defensive league - I have zero stats to back that up just exp!

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

No time like the present and I've had another look at some of the bigger leagues we'll be welcoming back soon.

Netherlands is good
Spain is good
Italy is decent enough
France is a bit MEH.....but not as many selections and as bigger league I would persevere there. It's really only one surprise result that's made it look worse than it is.

The average number of goals per match in France is pretty low, If I recall correctly- that may have something to do with it? Maybe they are just better at shutting down matches when ahead?

Could be. It's one to watch for sure but like I said, it's a big league so for now it stays. Also, in recent years I've noticed a lot of goals and some pretty low over odds in France so maybe the balance is redressing there. You have teams like PSG and to an extent Lyon, Monace, Marseille all pretty free scoring.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

No time like the present and I've had another look at some of the bigger leagues we'll be welcoming back soon.

Netherlands is good
Spain is good
Italy is decent enough
France is a bit MEH.....but not as many selections and as bigger league I would persevere there. It's really only one surprise result that's made it look worse than it is.

The average number of goals per match in France is pretty low, If I recall correctly- that may have something to do with it? Maybe they are just better at shutting down matches when ahead?

[Richard Latimer]

No time like the present and I've had another look at some of the bigger leagues we'll be welcoming back soon.

Netherlands is good
Spain is good
Italy is decent enough
France is a bit MEH.....but not as many selections and a s bigger league I would persevere there. It's really only one surprise result that's made it look worse than it is.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Bit stupid I know but when I get something in to my head I'm like a bullldozer and I delete delete delete.

Think from now on I will collect these excluded leagues on a separate sheet and update p/l there as well. Will be interesting to see what happens.

That's the best approach, I think.

[Richard Latimer]

Bit stupid I know but when I get something in to my head I'm like a bullldozer and I delete delete delete.

Think from now on I will collect these excluded leagues on a separate sheet and update p/l there as well. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@lee-woodman said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer How many games have you got from Belgium?

Well over 20 now.

Yeah, that would be more than enough for me as well.

Lee obviously has a point on removing leagues based on very few data, but as you said, if you have to wait until you have, say 50 selections from a league before you can make a qualified judgment on whether to include or exclude a league, then you'd have to wait a year or two (or, in Costa Rica's case 50 years ), and that is obviously not realistic.

Ideally, you would put the "red" leagues on hold when it comes to selecting them and including the results in the updates, while still keeping records on how they perform to find if they improve (and if the negative results you got were simply a matter of a negative variance for the league in question), however, you have a lot of systems you track and keeping records on selections you are not actually using is probably work you could do without. For leagues with a small number of selections, it doesn't really matter much if you remove them when they shouldn't have been removed, as the potential profits are small anyway, so you don't lose much by removing them. Later, you can always consider checking some of the "red" leagues again to see if they have changed.