Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Trading gods are bastards and it's fair to say the raw data went back to the mean today.
Still a couple of trades to go but heavy heavy loss today.
Notice the 3rd goal in Freiburg was cancelled so got a little back. Still a crap day that I made a little crapper for myself.
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Trading gods are bastards and it's fair to say the raw data went back to the mean today.
Still a couple of trades to go but heavy heavy loss today.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
So much easier to motivate yourself posting updates when all has gone well:
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That's it. September finished and while today was a small loss, overall I made £127 this month.
That's £30 more than last months loss and puts me back in profit for the year.
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I didn't want to update after Aug as it was far too raw and I needed things to go right before I spent time putting the negatives down on the page. Thankfully Sept has blown Aug away and but for a very bad day the profit will almost certainly exceed the massive loss so all back and more.
Limiting my odds while the system is still in development has helped massively.
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Despite it being a brilliant month with only 3 days left I am just going to address the downturn in my lay overs strategy which is having the worst month for ages even though it's around break even give or take a couple of points. Under 1.5's are hitting at 27%!!
This has a lot to do with how well the raw data is fairing and you have to go back to Sept last year to find a better s/r than the 88% coming in this Sept (last year it was 90% and over 2.5 lays were at 50% compared to 52% this).
Although I should caveat that by saying there were a lot less selections of the unders (over lays) back then.
When Oct hit the raw data went down massively to 76% and the over lays flourished.
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Purple is over 2.5 lay, the other 2 potential under 1.5 lays providing no higher than 6.0 to lay when I take the trade.
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Lay under 1.5 providing 6.0 or less when I hit the hay
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Rest for today. Purple are over 2.5 lays, remainder are under 1.5 lays:
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Lay under 1.5 @6.0 or less:
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For Friday. Purple are lay over 2.5, blue lay under 1.5:
Max lay odds for 1.5 under lays = 6.0
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Lay Over 2.5:
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Lay under 1.5
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The rest of this weekend for me. All under 1.5 lays if 6.0 or better in price:
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Part one of the weekend. All under 1.5 lays:
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I'm delaying updating Aug in the hope I can update with a positive Sept!
These for the weekend. Purple is lay over 2.5, blue lay under 1.5.
Max price for laying under 6.00:
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Purple will be over 2.5 lays
Blue under 1.5 lays
Rotherham under 1.5 layAll under lays must be max price of 6.00
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ALOT of lost ground to make up in Sept:
Blue is lay under 1.5
Purple is lay over 2.5 -
@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Lay Under 1.5:
Not looking forward to posting this months update. Absolute crap again! Still, plenty of time left in the year to pull things around.....
Another 0-0 and my bank is in a tailspin. The raw data has fallen off a cliff so following that would have been 10x worse. Changes I've made have not only saved but also showed me a way to benefit from those unexpected games and also potentially throw them back into the mix if they don't qualify as one of those really dull games.
I can't be too cautious as I rule out too many winning trades and still hit the odd duffer I would repeat. I can't throw caution to the wind and lay up to 11.00 as I was doing because while it gives me something going forward these dull 0-0's would kill me in the meantime.
Had I only laid up to 6.00 for all of last month I would haved fared better. Sods law that you make a decision and still get hit by a couple of stragglers when you're in need of a good run the most.
Rio Grande v San Antonio from a quick check this morning had incredibly high numbers for away team scoring and home conceding. Only just had a loser like this in Denmark which thankfully was too high odds but that's 2/3 or 2/4 now where those high numbers do not equate to high scoring. That's over more than a year now too.
Long story short.....last night's loser takes 1 win away from the Azerbaijan league and gives me another successful over lay for my data. The Azerbaijan was also only 0-2 so gives another over 2.5 lay as well should I go down that path.
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Lay Under 1.5:
Not looking forward to posting this months update. Absolute crap again! Still, plenty of time left in the year to pull things around.....
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
