Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

And finally some more 0-2 lays that won't happen haha!

[Richard Latimer]

And goals:

These carried on producing the goods today with goals in Chongqing and Zaglebie. There was also a goal in Hebei although as that one was 2-1 @ HT it was just for tracking at the moment.

Very early days in the longterm life of a trading strat but at 31 wins from 37 and ave odds taken of 2.82 I think this is very promising.

Not only that but if I include some of the scoreline I'm not yet taking then it's 49 from 58.

The strat is derived from @Martin-Futter's late goals though so it certainly gives me confidence.

The main differences

My scope is 10 matches
Not restricted to current season
Imagine some leagues he doesn't do
When home team and away team numbers are both only 80% these are ruled out (data for these wasn't good)
If 3 or more of the criteria is on the lower side these are ruled out (allows for hopefully only the cream of selections on any given day)
If any H2 goals happen before my lay is matched the game is done
Min 1.15 ave odds for over 0.5 H2 (for this I look at oddsportal.com as it pulls all bookmaker prices together)
At present HT scoreline of 0-0/0-1/1-1 only (hope to include a few more in future)

How I'm playing them:

If inplay stats acceptable and/or some/all of the best players on the pitch I will lay the next under in 2 stages. Where no player data is available I will go on inplay stats.

First lay will be half the HT odds and 2nd lay will be for a literal halving of the odds. So odds of 5.0 at HT become 3.0 and 2.5. If it's too low already like 3.65 or something I may just halve that to 2.34 and do it all then as it can be quite late in the game until another 50 comes off to get to 1.84.

But this way is stopping my liability being higher and allowing the placing of greater stakes in games where the intial price is prohibitive.

[Daniel Cooper]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Need a good bounce back with these tomorrow:

From 47 selections since Aug 1st there have been 4 teams go 2 goals down. The first was in Japan but they'd already secured one leveller (that I didn't get but thats beside the point). They came back from 1-3 down in the end to finish 2-3 despite late pressure.

The next 3 all secured a full comeback with Dundalk, Pyramids and now Backa in Serbia. Going to hold my nerve on the next one and see it out. Cue a loss but I have to play the percentages and right now the percentages are with a full comeback.

I think perhaps if there's 2 matches with heavy liability where I can scratch I may still do that but when you're talking about taking a loss anyway.....

Sorry Richard, is this the dogs or Titanic?

[Richard Latimer]

Need a good bounce back with these tomorrow:

From 47 selections since Aug 1st there have been 4 teams go 2 goals down. The first was in Japan but they'd already secured one leveller (that I didn't get but thats beside the point). They came back from 1-3 down in the end to finish 2-3 despite late pressure.

The next 3 all secured a full comeback with Dundalk, Pyramids and now Backa in Serbia. Going to hold my nerve on the next one and see it out. Cue a loss but I have to play the percentages and right now the percentages are with a full comeback.

I think perhaps if there's 2 matches with heavy liability where I can scratch I may still do that but when you're talking about taking a loss anyway.....

[Richard Latimer]

Day started off great with the goals and ended with a damp squib in the ELO's.

Need to find the best way of playing it when a strong favourite comes back from 2 goals down with 1 goal. I re-lay on the 0-2 always. It's par for the course.

It's what happens after.

Even if the stronger team only makes a comeback 50% of the time is it better to stay in??? I'm not sure at the moment but the last 3 that did this have come back to give everyone a bumper payday. Everyone that is apart from me.

Always more to learn.....

[Richard Latimer]

@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer

Well I wish you all the best and I think you have developed some filters/strats you can rely an awful lot on!

Thanks

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I think it's a lot easier to stake higher numbers when you've grown those numbers yourself over time.

This is 100% true and the only approach I believe in. It's much less stressful when you risk profits rather than actually invested money and it will make it a lot easier to go fulltime eventually.

[Daniel Cooper]

@richard-latimer

Well I wish you all the best and I think you have developed some filters/strats you can rely an awful lot on!

[Richard Latimer]

@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer

Mine too. Long term, I have a lot of years to put into it and perfect it so I'm hopeful!

That adage is very appt I think. If you just throw 1k in you're less likely to appreciate each trade you make. Also, at this low stakes level theres so much emotion in the trading, need rid of that!

I probably don't have as much time. As my wife constantly reminds me it's been 15 yrs since I became interested in the betting industry. For me the time is now and it's now or never really.

[Daniel Cooper]

@richard-latimer

Mine too. Long term, I have a lot of years to put into it and perfect it so I'm hopeful!

That adage is very appt I think. If you just throw 1k in you're less likely to appreciate each trade you make. Also, at this low stakes level theres so much emotion in the trading, need rid of that!

[Richard Latimer]

@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer What are your long term trading goals?

I've been in the positive since joining BTC so my plan is to get to the point I was at when I very first invested (seems odd but I really screwed my bank pre-BTC) - at which point I have funds set aside to invest further when I've proven to myself everything is moving in the right direction.

I could just invest it now, but I'm trying to be strict with myself to get back to that original point so as to discourage over trading, chasing losses and FOMO

My long-term goal is to make a living from it and not just a living but a good living. I've put dribs and drabs in for ages now. Two reasons. 1) I can't afford more than that and 2) like you you I didn't feel comfortable doing it anyway. Goal has always been to grow organically. I think it's a lot easier to stake higher numbers when you've grown those numbers yourself over time.

I tend to think of it like the old adage of throwing a frog into boiling water and it just leaping out but if you heat the water up slowly around it by the time the frog realises it's too late.

No matter how much confidence I have in my strategy if I was to start throwing 10's, 20's, 50's at stuff I'd probably freak.

I'm hoping though that by the time I'm putting on 100's or more I'll be so used to putting down the 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's that it will scarcely seem any different.

To think of going from 0-100 is way too scared even if you can afford it I think.

[Daniel Cooper]

@richard-latimer What are your long term trading goals?

I've been in the positive since joining BTC so my plan is to get to the point I was at when I very first invested (seems odd but I really screwed my bank pre-BTC) - at which point I have funds set aside to invest further when I've proven to myself everything is moving in the right direction.

I could just invest it now, but I'm trying to be strict with myself to get back to that original point so as to discourage over trading, chasing losses and FOMO

[Richard Latimer]

@daniel-cooper said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Hi RIchard. New to the thread. Is this where you will be posting your daily lists now?

Yeah, it's easier as won't get lost. Any questions just ask.

[Daniel Cooper]

Hi RIchard. New to the thread. Is this where you will be posting your daily lists now?

[Richard Latimer]

Finally, home teams coming back from the dead (0-2 down):

Getting a bit boring as nothing ever seems to qualify anymore but until I have something better it's a nicely performing filter when things do actually qualify and it's also incredibly low risk.

[Richard Latimer]

H2 goals (only when there hasn't been any H2 goals already) from 60-75 mins in (a bit vague but it all depends on what gets matched. When these qualify I'll take the HT odds, halve them for first half of stake and then take a literal half of the odds (6.0 will become 3.0 for example) and lay that price for 2nd half of stake.

Also, if anyone is avoiding China on account of them being played at Neutral venues this no longer seems applicable for some reason. The last load I have looked at/traded have all been held at the correct venue.

[Richard Latimer]

Milestone today as stake for 1pt goes from £1.99 to £2.02. As I'm using a ratchet these stakes won't go down unless my bank falls from it's current level of £108.63 to £70.61.

For anything with odds over 3.5 and no higher than 7.4 I will be staking £1.21. If I go higher than this but no higher than 11.0 (highly unlikely) I will be staking 90p.

This is how I manage to take higher odds and still keep within where I want to be in terms of not overstaking.

ELO's:

[Richard Latimer]

Not updating now although I have updated my sheet. Going to bed in a minute but it was a good day made better by Flamengo.

Thu ELO's:

Thu Late Goals:

Odds have got to be right, score has got to be 0-0/1-1/0-1 at HT and needs to be some attacking threat on the pitch or signs of attacking intent on inplay stats/sofascore graph.

Titanic - Home teams coming back from 0-2 down:

[Richard Latimer]

Titanic:

Home teams coming back from 0-2.

[Richard Latimer]

Late goal potentials:

I've checked to make sure each team has played enough games this time.