Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer personally don't like early season, just from the perspective of knowing teams are yet to hit full match fitness

My data is very much inconclusive on this end for now. Went through all results yesterday looking for patterns and while I managed to find some things to tighten up this wasn't really one of them. After a bunch of poor results I often need to find reasons to make me confident enough to go again if anything and making snap decisions from logical reasoning helps me to do this.

I think I'll continue to track the things I'm getting rid of for posterity and transparency but there are things about 3 of yesterday's 4 losses which made them outliers and I have no problem removing outliers for the greater good.

When I can get to computer later I will go into more detail.

Martin

@richard-latimer personally don't like early season, just from the perspective of knowing teams are yet to hit full match fitness

Richard Latimer

Monday is quiet which is good. For one thing it's bank holiday and time to spend some quality time with the family. For another I've been analysing the s**t out of my data tonight following 4 losses on the bounce in the 2nd half goal picks.

What I thought was a really good trade in Santos perhaps wasn't so. Data is inconclusive to remove first game of the season on these but Dordrecht may not have been right regardless. Not making any decisions tonight but will come back to it in the evening.

There's one potential ELO in China but I doubt I'll bother. Anyone who wants it, it's on the sheet.

Richard Latimer

Finally, the 'Titanic' filter which is starting to produce a couple of qualifiers again now. The latest was Legia who went 0-2 down and pulled one back (just quick enough for me to take around 50% ROI.

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Richard Latimer

2nd half goal picks for Sun:

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Waiting for the next loss on these now. Doesn't seem as though I've had one for ages haha! As documented on the football thread I missed Gamba Osaka personally but it's another one for the data. Missed the goal in Paraguay by seconds. Just diddn't quite come down to my price before River Plate got a free kick, the market suspended and goal flashed up. Got luckier in Palmeiras after Bahia had a goal ruled out on 46 allowing Palmeiras to do the honours in the 77th. Still enough time for Bahia to get one at the death but by then my race was run.

Richard Latimer

Sun ELO:

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Saturday was a bit of a mixed bag really. Not especially good, not especially bad.

Shandong I saw was around 1.78 to lay the away when they went ahead so ave loss.
Then Pyramids were higher than that initially but got quite low before they pulled it back.
Nacional in Uruguay (I should say, I don't have much from Uruguay but what I do have is good for these) went behind to Fenix and pulled that back. Odds there were 1.79 to lay Fenix when they went ahead.

Finally it was another low odds lay in Paraguay although this time it didn't quite come off. I got 1.4 on River Plate.

So I suppose Pyramids negated the loss on Shandong and the loss on River Plate cancelled out over half the green on Nacional. Still, it was definitely green which after last weekend is good.

On another note U. Catolica just pulled off a comeback in Chile for the leagues I'm monitoring but doing nothing else with at the moment.

Richard Latimer

Something to consider moving forward. Not quite sure how I'm going to change things but I probably will to an extent. The lower the goal odds at ht the longer they take to come in further it would seem. Just missed the first since I've been doing it this way where the goal came post 65mins.

Odds of 6.4 at hT will probably be closer to 3.2 after 60-65 mins.
Odds of 3.45 didn't even get to 2.26 by the 67th/68th minute.

Richard Latimer

Short priced lay away (if score 0-2):

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Richard Latimer

Goal selection (H2 specifically):

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Richard Latimer

We made it!!! The weekend is upon us and finally there will be some trades:

Have already split out the good ELO leagues (Won't Stay Down) from the 'Can't Get Back Up' ones.

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The good ones.

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The sus ones.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Going to hope for an opportunity to put this one in Uruguay into Action in a bit:

Need 0-0/0-1/1-1@HT to enter. Also decent enough odds and attacking threat/good enough inplay stats. Once I have this I will lay the next under to hopefully match around 65-70 mins.

1-0 and a red card so that ones out.

Richard Latimer

If Arad go 0-2 down it's a lay on the away:

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Richard Latimer

Going to hope for an opportunity to put this one in Uruguay into Action in a bit:

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Need 0-0/0-1/1-1@HT to enter. Also decent enough odds and attacking threat/good enough inplay stats. Once I have this I will lay the next under to hopefully match around 65-70 mins.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

ELO's from largely untested countries on Thursday (one in Ecuador and one in Kazak):

Glad I didn't jump in. Ecuador would have been a loss last night. Either a small traded loss or an outright loss but a loss just the same. Time to see if the Kazaks have what it takes.