Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
-
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?
Nothing for a few days although I did forget to post today anyway. Kawasaki and Kashima both won without going behind.
Egyptian game later.
Egyptian one also qualifies under my trial.
-
@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?
Nothing for a few days although I did forget to post today anyway. Kawasaki and Kashima both won without going behind.
Egyptian game later.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer whats going on with the dog lays mate, i know there has been quite a few selections of late but it seems like ages since i did one haha feel like we went through a patch of doing a couple a day at one point. Is it just me not keeping track or is it something else?
-
Now I've shelved the H2 goals in favour of just tracking and collecting data I've been trying to see how the new lay winning team strat I'm working on can be improved. It will surprise nobody that as soon as I take out the realy early season games I can see an instant improvement. One thing I'm guilty of and I don't know if others can recognise this in themselves as well, is looking too much at individual trades. You think yes but if I remove said games I remove that winnign trade and it was a good one, rather than looking at the overall picture.
Anyway it's not the only thing I can see to tighten up on but it has definitely helped me me see the wood from the trees.
A bit of aftertiming on here but it's no good for me anyway as I took something else and got burnt.
Iwata was a lay around 1.33 and they drew 1-1.
-
@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer china is a strange one now cause they are all (i think) in neutral venues.
YeH ah but they've been one of the better performing for a while. Just not feeling great about the H2 goals at the moment so collecting data. In the meantimeI'll continue with my ELO's as well as looking to develop another similar strat.
-
@richard-latimer china is a strange one now cause they are all (i think) in neutral venues.
-
Paraguay with the overnight let down and China with the morning one. I've really not done anything different with this since the beginning when it was flying. Only thing is leagues without data (not just new but leagues where I don'r know if they are profitable or not) and new combinations of statistics etc...
For now I'm going to have to go back to papertrading them as what's starting to happen is what happened most of last year. I was making consistent money on the ELO's and then losing that and a little bit more on poorly performing strats.
-
ELO's:
Off to bed in a min so won't be doing anything overnight.
-
Sept can craw behind a rock and die. Contributed to my own pain a little but there have been a few things out of my control and also just plain old variance. 9 days to turn it around and make small profit from medium red. H2 goals:
No data on Paraguay for this yet but I like the league in general. It has always been one of the better ones for me and usually sees a goal or two, often very late. Odds good as well.
-
@john-hurst said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer you leaving the new season matches now? had a feeling you didnt used to.
No, I didn't but had to admit defeat there when I started looking into it. I wait 7 combined games into the season (not home/away specific, just enough time for both teams to get up to speed.
-
@richard-latimer you leaving the new season matches now? had a feeling you didnt used to.
-
Same again on the H2 goals. I'll leave the unprofitable leagues well alone but continue to track.
-
Sorry for the lateness but problems with stats have hampered me. Not all these are good. Some in leagues I'm only tracking and some in newly started leagues. You can check individual country results on current sheet as well as old which is at the back.
If the fixture has a combined amount of fixtures 6 or less (not home/away specific) then I'll leave it.
-
Lots of potential H2 goals though where I've so far found early season form to make little or no difference:
-
Only 2 ELO's today when you take out the very early season games:
-
Loss in Egypt for the ELO today. Before I post tomorrows there is one starting soon in Columbia. La Equidad go behind I will lay Boyaca Chico. Only a couple of results in Columbia so far but both were positive.
-
Missed Elfsborg due to sofascore not notifying me. Nevermind. Only a couple of potentials tomorrow:
-
All I've got.
-
Another good couple of ELO trades today. Need to get a handle on the H2 goals. A bit like treacle at the moment but hopefully removing some leagues to the paper trading area will help there. On the subject of ELO's I'll posty those tomorrow as nothing decent overnight anyway.
H2 goals as follows:
-
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
No major changes to the H2 goals but I'm going to avoid a couple of leagues until I have the data to back it up. Rather than wait until I know they should be removed I think I prefer to remove until proven which isn't something I've done in the past.
Had a bad feeling about the game in Chile this morning and surprise surprise it remained 1-1 after HT. Serbia for goals hasn't been good when I've experimented with prev filters and with this one we're already looking at a 50/50 split.
So I'll keep tracking on the sheet I've set up for the paper trades and seen what comes of everything. For the time being unless it's a league I'm happy with I'll leave well alone.
These unknown leagues are slowing progress.
Egypt was the other one. One losing selection so will just track these for now.
Some leagues seem to be great for come backs but not so good for goals in general and vice versa.
