Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Wasn't expecting to get any questions on my second half goal filter at such an early stage but seeing as I have I'll outline a quick summary here. A screenshot would have been easier but stats appear to be down again.

So the basic premise is the same as Garys H2 filter. It appears to be doing very well but what I've never liked is the odds parameter. For me, something having better potential value should never be a reason to rule it out. Also, odds are variable and it makes the filter variable depending on when you look.

So as I say, the base is Garys filter. I went into that, removed odds criteria and added the following but with no restriction:

Overall Scored H2% >=0
Home Scored H2% >=0

I also removed the restriction for current season only and rather than simply rule out all early games I'm tracking how many games have been played in a season by both teams/combined (not h/a specific). Ideally I just want to let them bed in for around 1 month and then use data from both seasons until there is enough of the current.

I've removed the filter for inplay only as betfair chop and change this at will. Just because they plan one thing doesn't mean they'll stick to that.

I've removed exclude playoffs as I've found the 2nd playoff can be higher scoring when both teams know what they have to do to qualify. First leg cagey, 2nd leg open.

That's it initially.

It's bringing up a monster list each day but doesn't mean many qualify. Because I'm doing LTD to keep liability down this knocks out a whole load of games. I'm then of the opinion that 1 H2 goal is easier to come by than 2. It may well be that it could be profitable even if H2 goal had already been scored but I believe to truly optimise it's best to simply get rid if not drawing @ HT.

This narrows it down considerably but still not enough.

If 0-0 I'm happy to LTD on any selection from 59mins (catches goals in the 60th min). If 1-1 I'm looking for 85%+ on a H2 goal being scored.

There's not been a 2-2 yet or a 3-3 and I'm not eaxactly sure on the significance of a Home Scored H2% as yet - will continue to track.

That's it. Very early stages, work in progress with good initial results at decent odds. If I can hit 75% at these odds there should be no reason not to profit. 75% should be well within reach and I'm aiming for closer to 80%. We shall see.

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

1x ELO and it was good. Suduva with a textbook comeback. Nice and easy, how it should always be haha!

I'm trying out a new filter for 2nd half goals but I've decided to LTD to keep that all important liability down. I'm basing it on Garys filter but crucially have removed the odds requirement as to me that's problematic. A selection could slip in and out depending on when you look.

I also will be using data from the season previous but more than likely rule out the very early season games just to give them chance to get up to speed. The idea will be to have some data from current season to add to the data from last season before making any plays.This very much depends on the data I collect over time but right now it's the plan.

I'll give it a week to make sure it's not a complete flash in the pan before I start posting updates on my testing.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

ELO's for Tuesday. Included English leagues long ago ruled out in case the inplay stats look too good too pass up. This is all I have for now having given up on the trial and being not ready to share anything else just yet. I'm desperate for one more strat to go with this but thus far it just hasn't been happening.

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's for Tuesday. Included English leagues long ago ruled out in case the inplay stats look too good too pass up. This is all I have for now having given up on the trial and being not ready to share anything else just yet. I'm desperate for one more strat to go with this but thus far it just hasn't been happening.

[Richard Latimer]

Another 1.5pts down on ELO today. It's not been a good weekend there. Today however, I see nothing that could be changed. Didn't foresee a shutout for Split against Sibenik at all!

The trial was taking too much of my time and the way it was beginning to go it had started to look like one of the many 'great' ideas that you start tracking just at THE most purple patch and then as soon as you go live it all goes down hill. I think it just shows how incredibly difficult sides are. It's one thing knowing how many times x team came back but quite another in terms of the quality they were up against each time.

In addition, as documented on the foootball thread earlier I got involved in 2 leagues I haven't touched for a while purely based on the inplay stats. Both teams appeared to be dominant and goals had come against the run of play. Worked out well with 2 quick comebacks.

I think I'll stay with this, try and refine both it and how I play it while working on a filter for goals. Meantime I'm going to keep playing Gary H2 filter.

Not quite sure how he is benefitting so much from backing for an over 1.5 in H2 though and redding on 75 if no goal. Tried this and actually ended slightly red with a goal in the 72nd. A goal around 65mins is virtually break even.

I'm thinking drip laying the under from 4.0min might be a good idea.

so 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.5.

I prefer the lay as I'd want to benefit well enough for a goal on the first level seeing as this is where the majority or at least a decent quantity would come from.

[Richard Latimer]

On ELO's alone yesterday, it was hardly a disaster. 1.5pts down in the end. Nevertheless there's a couple things that concern me. Not doing anything at the moment but when ELO down around the 100-105 mark in difference either way it's a bit 50/50. Most of the time the odds reflect this.

Also, I'm going to continue with the reduce liability and wait for big comeback approach at the moment but ever since almost every game was coming back from 2 goals down and I was getting fed up as all I could see was YESSS!!!! and Boom!!!. BIG greeen etc etc after I'd either red out or took minimal green.......now there's been a bit of a return to the way things were. Under 50% s/r from the games with 2 or more entries.

Aside from that I'm going to try and be a little more dynamic with the poorer performing leagues today rather than rule them out completely. If all the inplay stats point towards a comeback and odds ok I may hit it. Who knows.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Really really poor day today. Trial went to s**t and ELO's turned bad halfway through the day. Had to stop the doubts creeping in again and it's always harder when you're tired. Here they are for Sunday although I've not taken out duff leagues yet. To be fair you can find this easily enough by looking what has performed on the spreadsheet and what hasn't. Belgium, Russia, Belarus, Slovenia all definitely there though. Stay away regardless of decent Belgian form of recent.

[Richard Latimer]

Really really poor day today. Trial went to s**t and ELO's turned bad halfway through the day. Had to stop the doubts creeping in again and it's always harder when you're tired. Here they are for Sunday although I've not taken out duff leagues yet. To be fair you can find this easily enough by looking what has performed on the spreadsheet and what hasn't. Belgium, Russia, Belarus, Slovenia all definitely there though. Stay away regardless of decent Belgian form of recent.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

4 good ELO trades tonight. Quite the potential feast tomorrow!

Strike N.I. for now. Need 7 combined matches played first.

Also Qatar

And the Greeek game. Smyrnis only played once.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

4 good ELO trades tonight. Quite the potential feast tomorrow!

Strike N.I. for now. Need 7 combined matches played first.

Also Qatar

And the Greeek game. Smyrnis only played once.

Finally, looks like Uruguay re-starting so no games played yet.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

4 good ELO trades tonight. Quite the potential feast tomorrow!

Strike N.I. for now. Need 7 combined matches played first.

Also Qatar

And the Greeek game. Smyrnis only played once.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

4 good ELO trades tonight. Quite the potential feast tomorrow!

Strike N.I. for now. Need 7 combined matches played first.

Also Qatar

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

4 good ELO trades tonight. Quite the potential feast tomorrow!

Strike N.I. for now. Need 7 combined matches played first.

[Richard Latimer]

4 good ELO trades tonight. Quite the potential feast tomorrow!

[Richard Latimer]

Ok let me try and lay these out a little so that if I do decide to get involved I've done all the homework:

Cluj have now been behind 8 times in 10 games. This is too much. I'll track the result for the time being.

Vojvodina is an ELO anyway but it works for this. 100% comeback from home and 100% choke by the away.

Belupo behind 3 times and come back twice. Istra have taken the lead twice and only secured the win one. This looks good to me. Also not strictly relevant but seems to be playing a part at the moment. When home team go ahead they don't look back and when away team go behind they can never get back.

Hapoel Katamon behind 5 times, came back in 4. Beitar Tel Aviv have taken the lead 7 times and managed to lose it 5 times. That seems a little high. Prob one to watch.

Graafschap have been behind 5 times and come back 4. Helmond have taken the lead twice and choked on both occasions. Again when away team go ahead they don't look back and when home team fall behind they can never get back.

Clermont have been behind 4 times and come back 3. Chambly have taken the lead 5 times and chocked on 2 of those.

Wil have fallen behind 4 times and come back 3. Kriens have taken the lead 4 times and choked 50% of the time. Looks good to me.

Coleraine similar numbers. Behind 4 times, come back 3. Ballymena have taken the lead 3 times and choked twice.

Finally Shamrock. Behind once, come back once. Derry taken the lead 6 times and choked.

I really cannot see any reason for these teams not to be able to force a comeback. After just swearing off the trial tonight I will see how the ground lies before rushing in.

[Richard Latimer]

Fri ELO's:

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's other than Kuwait getting picked up on the other filter as well so duplication. Regardless, I will only trade each match once:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Speaking of the trial, here's Thurs selections:

All appear to be fine but there's those famous last words again haha!

Couple of postponed/cancelled games in that lot. Iceland and USA the culprits.

[Richard Latimer]

Speaking of the trial, here's Thurs selections:

All appear to be fine but there's those famous last words again haha!

[Richard Latimer]

Not a kind day in the end. Started off following Gary's 2nd half trades on the H2 over 1.5 and they both came in. All morning team lays didn't qualify as favourites won all without going behind.

On to the evening and first Palmeiras go 0-1 down quickly followed by Once Caldas. No hesitation in these leagues as normally great value.

Once Caldas duly equalised but Coritiba all over Palmeiras and make it 0-2. A quick re-lay followed by an upturn in form and a goal back allows me to reduce liability while keeping green nice and big.

All appears to be going ok with no real chance of another goal until suddenly Coritiba start peppering the Palmeiras goal. Soon eough it's 1-3 and time for another even cheaper re-lay. Thought it may turn around but VAR struck so in the end it's the first loss over a point on these since Malmo in Sept.

Also, Chile looks to be going down the same path as Slovenia and Russia on my trial and the same path it followed on ELO. One of extreme inconsistency. Shitcanned for now on the firing blanks page where I'm continuing to track the poor leagues haha!