Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Got one of the crazy scoring games coming up for tomorrow. Yes it's Kawasaki Frontale and they've already won at a canter but Gamba need points as well. Kawasaki won the last game well enough and they'd pretty much secured the title at that point too.

Odds for Over 3.5 likely to be around 2.4ish
Over 1.5 goals H2 around 1.8-1.9 and for 2 SHG it's probably going to be closer to 3.5.

Price steamed in big time but despite Kawasaki securing the title last week they were rampant again.

5-0 FT with 3SHG for a clean sweep on all 3 entry points. Yes I did do it myself. Despite it being very early days these just appear too good not to at the moment.

Lay prices were:

1.92
2.64
1.54

[Richard Latimer]

Thought I'd do a little more analysis on the top numbers although still very early days and anything could yet happen.

From the 35 top selections:

in 21 games both the over 3.5 and SHG over 1.5 came in leaving 14 that didn't.
Of those 14, 50% 7/14 saw at least one of the 2 come in and of course 7/14 were a full loss.

In the 22 games where I would currently want to be going over 2.5SHG I already know 11 won but in this 11 the other bets/trades won as well so when the 11 over 2.5SHG come in so far then so do the over 3.5 and over 1.5SHG.

Question is, will the 21 full wins be enough to counter the 7 full losses if this was to replicate long term. I believe it would. Most of the time a full loss would amount to may be 2-3 points. Maybe looking at -18pts. The full wins would provide 42pts less commission. The 7 half wins as it were would mostly break even but if we're being super conservative we could say half a point loss on each so 3.5pts lost.

This would still give around 20pts profit in such a scenario.

The over 2.5SHG at 50% s/r is a bonus and could easily provide another 3-5pts at a low liability.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm also keeping an eye on the away teams with high away offence but not tracking these YET. One in Singapore tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Got one of the crazy scoring games coming up for tomorrow. Yes it's Kawasaki Frontale and they've already won at a canter but Gamba need points as well. Kawasaki won the last game well enough and they'd pretty much secured the title at that point too.

Odds for Over 3.5 likely to be around 2.4ish
Over 1.5 goals H2 around 1.8-1.9 and for 2 SHG it's probably going to be closer to 3.5.

[Richard Latimer]

Rosenborg soundly beaten tonight even if they did pull 2 goals back late. Would have been way too late to salvage anything and confirms my decision to give these a rest for now. Not like they have nothing to play for either.

[Richard Latimer]

In any case, i now have over 100 selections from my initial idea so time to remove tracking for the lowest numbers. Below 1.25 on the home offence gone. I will continue to track everything over this for the time being.

[Richard Latimer]

And there is a 3rd part which I'm looking into now and will post when I have all the data I want.

[Richard Latimer]

This is the 2nd part:

When removing home offence of under 1.85 SO FAR it's a 50% proposition for over 2.5 SHG. Odds you say. Well here's what I have so far.

The only game so far below evens at the bookes is 1.92 which was Ajax. Almost surely over evens on betfair. Ajax won 5-2 scoring their 3rd SHG in the 95th.
After that between 2.05 - 2.3 (2.2-2.4 on betfair?) it's 2/4.
There are 12 games ranging from 2.42-3.0. Let's be conservative and say this is 2.5-3.2 on betfair. 7 wins and 5 losses.
There are 4 matches above 3.0 ave bookie price and still one winner. That 3.11 so prob closer to 3.3-3.35 on betfair.

[Richard Latimer]

When I remove home offensive ratings below 1.6 it becomes this:

For over 1.5 goals H2 we have 26 wins wins and 9 losses. I've been keeping an eye on the odds as well because what's the point otherwise.

Collecting ave bookie odds which will almost always be beat it's 3 wins no losses YET when odds around 1.3 (to back).
It's 4 wins and 1 loss when odds are in the 1.4's (prob 1.5 on betfair and 3.0 to lay).
7 wins and 2 losses when odds in the 1.5's (I'd imagine in the 1.6's on betfair).
9 wins and 4 losses when in the 1.6's (1.7's on betfair?).
5 selections over that (1.7's-1.8's so prob 1.8's to 1.9's on betfair). 3 wins, 2 losses.

If this were to continue as is at over 70% I can't see how it wouldn't make good money.

That's the first part of it.

[Richard Latimer]

I may have been quiet on the ELO as it stutters and stammers away of recent but it doesn't mean I haven't been working on other stuff. Ready to share what I have so far now.

Just over 100 selections from what I first started tracking and it's 100% ratings based. The raw data isn't hugely impressive. There's enough games with sky high scorelines but there's also plenty where that's not the case. BUT........

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@james-everard said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer Finding exactly the same mate. Starting to think if i do this strategy will only trade matches in the last 20mins when odds and liability will much lower helps with my mentality, Will be trying to get back on the forum from now on , had a bit of time off from posting on here nothing to do with any of you guys stuff going on with life i needed to sort. Catch up soon mate and look forward to reading your blogs

Good to know it's not just me. Even looking at the pressure charts which are usually a good indicator and shots on target. All seems prime and then bang it's 0-2 then 0-3. I think if they were closer results you could point to it being one of those days and team just wasn't quite on it.

Hansa got smashed, Degerfors soundly beaten and Salzburg going 0-3 down at home!

I have my list of laying the underdogs for today noted, with the system changed slightly. I am going to test this with small stakes. I am looking for the usual criteria with the Elo ratings and comebacks.
on top of this i have looking for where the favorite scores late on and the underdog concedes late on. I am going to enter between 70-80mins with a £2 liability and see how that plays. I struggle mentality when entering on higher odds so would be expecting to below 1.8 or below and i hope this will help me stay focussed

Feel like I've taken around 20 steps back recently to hopefully move 30 steps forward in the not too distant future haha!

[james everard]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@james-everard said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer Finding exactly the same mate. Starting to think if i do this strategy will only trade matches in the last 20mins when odds and liability will much lower helps with my mentality, Will be trying to get back on the forum from now on , had a bit of time off from posting on here nothing to do with any of you guys stuff going on with life i needed to sort. Catch up soon mate and look forward to reading your blogs

Good to know it's not just me. Even looking at the pressure charts which are usually a good indicator and shots on target. All seems prime and then bang it's 0-2 then 0-3. I think if they were closer results you could point to it being one of those days and team just wasn't quite on it.

Hansa got smashed, Degerfors soundly beaten and Salzburg going 0-3 down at home!

I have my list of laying the underdogs for today noted, with the system changed slightly. I am going to test this with small stakes. I am looking for the usual criteria with the Elo ratings and comebacks.
on top of this i have looking for where the favorite scores late on and the underdog concedes late on. I am going to enter between 70-80mins with a £2 liability and see how that plays. I struggle mentality when entering on higher odds so would be expecting to below 1.8 or below and i hope this will help me stay focussed

[Richard Latimer]

Prob be a 10 game clean sweep today. Nonetheless I'm out for now.

On the plus side it's good to see one of my favourite leagues returning today. The high scoring Bolivians are back!

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer Finding exactly the same mate. Starting to think if i do this strategy will only trade matches in the last 20mins when odds and liability will much lower helps with my mentality, Will be trying to get back on the forum from now on , had a bit of time off from posting on here nothing to do with any of you guys stuff going on with life i needed to sort. Catch up soon mate and look forward to reading your blogs

Good to know it's not just me. Even looking at the pressure charts which are usually a good indicator and shots on target. All seems prime and then bang it's 0-2 then 0-3. I think if they were closer results you could point to it being one of those days and team just wasn't quite on it.

Hansa got smashed, Degerfors soundly beaten and Salzburg going 0-3 down at home!

[james everard]

@richard-latimer Finding exactly the same mate. Starting to think if i do this strategy will only trade matches in the last 20mins when odds and liability will much lower helps with my mentality, Will be trying to get back on the forum from now on , had a bit of time off from posting on here nothing to do with any of you guys stuff going on with life i needed to sort. Catch up soon mate and look forward to reading your blogs

[Richard Latimer]

ELO has been rubbish again today despite a win in Bayern and Sevilla. Time to pause. I'm working on other stuff although not ready to post yet.

Will keep tracking the ELO's but been a steady decline since Oct I think and It's not really getting any better.

Maybe when fans allowed back into the stadiums it might pick up again. Not really sure what to make of the fact it was flying post lockdown when all the leagues came back to finish but maybe after so long out the players were just really fired up to get going again.

Now they're all knackered and need a holiday haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Time to get to bed in case opportunity knocks early doors!

Following my decision to go 106+ on ELO difference I forgot to amend my spreadsheet so Dundee and the Brazil Series C don't qualify.

[Richard Latimer]

Time to get to bed in case opportunity knocks early doors!

[Richard Latimer]

Fri ELO's and finally there's some football again haha!

[Richard Latimer]

I read that pl home advantage has pretty much gone out of the window this season. Not all leagues like that but it may certainly explain why ELO has been far more up and down.