Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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There will be plenty of time to reflect on a weekend that saw me lose not only the £90 profit accumulated in the start to Nov but also a further £60.
It's not a lack of discipline. I make my plan and I stick to it.
It's not the data, which is solid and should allow me to make good decisions.It's the fact I make poor decisions.
The data builds slowly which is hard in the first place but there is no way around that.
I try and find the fastest way to go through my selections that I can which doesn't allow for the in depth analysis I give to every single loser I have.
I also flick back and forth between being too cautious (my analysis far exceeds what most do anyway I rationalise) and too gung ho. When I go too cautious I'm leaving money on the table and still hitting losses.
When I go a bit too gung ho I get the inevitable profit jolt followed by the also inevitable carnage.
In theory it should become that much easier with every line of data but it's still slow and I find myself in a rinse/repeat situation time and again.
I know I need to pause the over lays. I knew that after Saturday. That's one thing. They are incomplete and on a weekend like the last one they only serve to add fuel to the fire.
I was so sure about limiting my liability by laying under 2.5 at a certain price point. However, that was another 2 losses I could have done without. In theory the more analysis I give to a game the less chance of losing and the the higher price I can take.
My streamlined data has still not had a loss @7.0 or higher from over 100 selections. But it is streamlined data which has been heavily combed.
When the interlull is over I need to take this and leave every single game where there is the slightest doubt. Limited data on anything where the selection could easily be excluded were it to go the wrong way. This must be left alone. If it means halving the selections so be it.
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Other than the low level regional leagues I've avoided ruling anything out until now. I feel I have the first league though after tracking this long.
In a little over 7 months only 7 selections have even come up in what I am now using as my raw data. 6 of those have qualified to be lay under 1.5 and the other has qualified through the back door so to speak.
Slovakia
Of the 6 qualifiers 1 has been 0-0, tonights was 0-1 and the other 4 all had 2 goals.
As a league it probably makes way more sense to lay over 2.5 here.
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Trading gods are bastards and it's fair to say the raw data went back to the mean today.
Still a couple of trades to go but heavy heavy loss today.
Notice the 3rd goal in Freiburg was cancelled so got a little back. Still a crap day that I made a little crapper for myself.
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Trading gods are bastards and it's fair to say the raw data went back to the mean today.
Still a couple of trades to go but heavy heavy loss today.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
So much easier to motivate yourself posting updates when all has gone well:
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That's it. September finished and while today was a small loss, overall I made £127 this month.
That's £30 more than last months loss and puts me back in profit for the year.
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I didn't want to update after Aug as it was far too raw and I needed things to go right before I spent time putting the negatives down on the page. Thankfully Sept has blown Aug away and but for a very bad day the profit will almost certainly exceed the massive loss so all back and more.
Limiting my odds while the system is still in development has helped massively.
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Despite it being a brilliant month with only 3 days left I am just going to address the downturn in my lay overs strategy which is having the worst month for ages even though it's around break even give or take a couple of points. Under 1.5's are hitting at 27%!!
This has a lot to do with how well the raw data is fairing and you have to go back to Sept last year to find a better s/r than the 88% coming in this Sept (last year it was 90% and over 2.5 lays were at 50% compared to 52% this).
Although I should caveat that by saying there were a lot less selections of the unders (over lays) back then.
When Oct hit the raw data went down massively to 76% and the over lays flourished.
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Purple is over 2.5 lay, the other 2 potential under 1.5 lays providing no higher than 6.0 to lay when I take the trade.
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Lay under 1.5 providing 6.0 or less when I hit the hay
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Rest for today. Purple are over 2.5 lays, remainder are under 1.5 lays:
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Lay under 1.5 @6.0 or less:
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For Friday. Purple are lay over 2.5, blue lay under 1.5:
Max lay odds for 1.5 under lays = 6.0
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Lay Over 2.5:
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Lay under 1.5
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The rest of this weekend for me. All under 1.5 lays if 6.0 or better in price:
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Part one of the weekend. All under 1.5 lays:
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I'm delaying updating Aug in the hope I can update with a positive Sept!
These for the weekend. Purple is lay over 2.5, blue lay under 1.5.
Max price for laying under 6.00:
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Purple will be over 2.5 lays
Blue under 1.5 lays
Rotherham under 1.5 layAll under lays must be max price of 6.00
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ALOT of lost ground to make up in Sept:
Blue is lay under 1.5
Purple is lay over 2.5
