Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Busy day for Sat. Will post tomorrow how I intend to play these:

[Richard Latimer]

A frustrating night in terms of data. Bundesliga had another win but still not enough positive data to take it off my shitlist.

Netherlands which always has this reputation as such a great league for goals has been poor only registering 60% from first 5 selections going past 60 now. Thank you Excelsior.

Morton and Dunfermline played a dud. League has a reputation so not sure whether to leave it for now.

On the plus side Excelsior got a FHG I guess.

[Richard Latimer]

These are the ones I'll be looking at tomorrow:

Will update how I intend to play them at the time.

[Richard Latimer]

@matthew-biggins said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Was watching the Ajax game as it was on my list too but I tend to find the odds are just way off where I want them to be in the Netherlands. Think that’s my biggest gripe with it rather than the reliability of the goals.

I didn't see the odds but I'm just collecting data on Netherlands for LCS where no prior H2 goal scored at present due to a couple of poor ones pre Christmas. May have just been a bad run but I'm playing it safe and going with what my data shows me.

[A Former User]

Was watching the Ajax game as it was on my list too but I tend to find the odds are just way off where I want them to be in the Netherlands. Think that’s my biggest gripe with it rather than the reliability of the goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

Costa Rica would have been a FH winner and 2nd half loser.

Also Ajax would have been a late goal winner. Need to see more in Eredivisie before I include this league again but I guess the signs are promising.

In other news, I have been looking at 3rd goals of the half in addition to 2nd goals and it seems as long as the last goal came far enough back there is still a very good chance of another goal when the home team is a favourite of 2.2 or less (average book price). Not only that but a 3rd goal so far seems to be far less reliant on the current score.

If I had to hazard a guess why this would be I'd say the game is turning into a bit of goal glut with 2 goals in 15 minutes of the 2nd half. Goals breed goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

Costa Rica would have been a FH winner and 2nd half loser.

[Richard Latimer]

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Poor night tonight and unecessarily so. Better planning could and would have prevented a red day. 2 trades should have been 0. Occurs to me I didn't document them on here but it's all on the football thread. Tomorrow I go again:

By the looks of the odds on PSV they are going to be under my 2.19 cut off and so if still 0-0 after 22 mins I'll aim to back over 2.5 provided starting odds 1.4+ as per oddsportal.com.

Delhi Dynamos or Odisha to give them their other name will be a 2nd half play after 66mins providing no prior H2 goals......or if 0-1 @ HT and leveller comes before before 55. If it's a goal glut @ HT (4 goals plus) then I would also look for another if there is an early goal up to the 55th minute.

Goal in the 64th in India. Constantly monitoring these and the temptation is to make entry point earlier. Being exacerbated at the moment by the relatively slim pickings on offer throughout January. Hopefully I'll find the entry point I'm satisfied with in terms of not letting things slip away bnut also not increasing liabilities/reducing potential profit of each trade too much.

I also want to look at the effect of certain scorelines on a 2nd goal. At present for all scorelines a 2nd goal seems way too 50/50 so there wouldn't be any point to it.

[Richard Latimer]

Poor night tonight and unecessarily so. Better planning could and would have prevented a red day. 2 trades should have been 0. Occurs to me I didn't document them on here but it's all on the football thread. Tomorrow I go again:

By the looks of the odds on PSV they are going to be under my 2.19 cut off and so if still 0-0 after 22 mins I'll aim to back over 2.5 provided starting odds 1.4+ as per oddsportal.com.

Delhi Dynamos or Odisha to give them their other name will be a 2nd half play after 66mins providing no prior H2 goals......or if 0-1 @ HT and leveller comes before before 55. If it's a goal glut @ HT (4 goals plus) then I would also look for another if there is an early goal up to the 55th minute.

[Richard Latimer]

Sundays:

[Richard Latimer]

Well when I finally got into it things didn't go too bad. Only small green as had a 50/50 split on the LTD and 2 winning FHG trades.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

The almighty doesn't want me trading today haha! Both inplay Belgian games null and void with early h2 goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

It's also 24 winning late goal trades with a red card and 0 losses from the well performing leagues.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer it came up in my first half goal filter, set and forget drip job. I wasn't to worried when the dog got a red. even though it was an own goal.

[Richard Latimer]

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

[Richard Latimer]

2 quick goals in the only potential FH play renders that null and void.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Going back to posting in here for a bit although I'll still update the main thread where possible:

Gone through the data I have so far as well as what I know about the leagues and made a plan for what I'll be doing tomorrow.

FH Play is an entry around 22 mins in backing over 2.5. If goal comes before then I'll wait until 30 mins and back over 3.5. Green on goal, red @ HT.
FH? means I need to check on home starting odds to ensure they remain fave of 2.1 or less
SH Play I'll be backing a goal around 66mins in
FGO means the goal I'm backing must be first of the half
NB60 (last goal scored not beyond the 60th minute)

Emmen I won't be touching at present in FH or SH due to the Eredivisie starting off quite poor in SH plays and home not being strong enough fave for FH play..

[Richard Latimer]

Going back to posting in here for a bit although I'll still update the main thread where possible:

Gone through the data I have so far as well as what I know about the leagues and made a plan for what I'll be doing tomorrow.

FH Play is an entry around 22 mins in backing over 2.5. If goal comes before then I'll wait until 30 mins and back over 3.5. Green on goal, red @ HT.
FH? means I need to check on home starting odds to ensure they remain fave of 2.1 or less
SH Play I'll be backing a goal around 66mins in
FGO means the goal I'm backing must be first of the half
NB60 (last goal scored not beyond the 60th minute)