Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Quick reminder I'm laying under 3.5 goals in the above game. Got 1.44 so the market clearly not expecting goals. Let's see if they're wrong. Cheap lay regardless and 2 SHG would result in profit even if it's 0-0 @ HT.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Another BOGOF for tomorrow:
Lay under 3.5 @ Kickoff and under 1.5 SHG @ HT.
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Another BOGOF for tomorrow:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've removed the dog lays from my current sheet for now. If anyone wants it let me know.
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It's not terribly impressive at first glance but I'm looking at an entry point of 70th minute and for this so far I can easily get my 100 selections to 43 with an 83% s/r. If I were to go 60th minute I can currently get closer to 88-89% with 61 selections.
LTD on 69mins (70th minute) should be a nice manageable price even with a few failures on the bounce.
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Goals filter I'm working on:
2nd half goals I should say. And just the one. Today I made it to 100 selections. Already been thinking in my mind what will have to go and what will have to stay. For now I've just removed the lowest set of averages for home goals scored and also the highest averages for home goals scored. Doesn't seem to be just a flash in the pan. Both lowest and highest are performing poorly and have been from the word go.
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Back up to 100 selections on BOGOF. No improvement for the next lowest set of numbers so time to remove.
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I can't keep tracking ELO's while I know the results are so off kilter and I have no intention of doing them. What am I really showing myself other than that results are all over the place.
No, taking a complete break there for a while and I''ll look at it again when the players are back to normal schedules with fans back in the stadium at capacity. In short, it's going to be a while.
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First full loss in a while in Belgium but it's not an expensive one. Small green for the day.
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@chris-osborne said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Teams in Europe are getting unexpected results all over the place and I actually have sympathy with Klopp on the scedule which is purely TV driven. Until full crowds are back and the schedule is back to some kind of normality then strange results will happen - as you said look at Real Madrid yesterday and Lazio today.
The injuries all teams playing in Europe are picking up is ridiculous and TV scedules should not be the main driver for when teams play. We're playing in Ukraine on Thursday yet don't play until tomorrow night thats just not right and we're not alone in that.
Yeah I know. It's mental. Only consistent is goals at the moment. Not where the goals are coming from haha!
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@richard-latimer Teams in Europe are getting unexpected results all over the place and I actually have sympathy with Klopp on the scedule which is purely TV driven. Until full crowds are back and the schedule is back to some kind of normality then strange results will happen - as you said look at Real Madrid yesterday and Lazio today.
The injuries all teams playing in Europe are picking up is ridiculous and TV scedules should not be the main driver for when teams play. We're playing in Ukraine on Thursday yet don't play until tomorrow night thats just not right and we're not alone in that.
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These are todays games where I'm expecting an abundance of goals:
Calling this strategy BOGOF.
For all of these I will be laying under 3.5@ Kickoff and laying the under 1.5 goals H2. I will also be laying under 2.5 SHG in Bodo/Glimt game.
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@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer don't think we should underestimate how much football is being played at the moment, teams really haven't had any time to prepare for the new season and the games are relentless. seems to have levelled the playing field somewhat, I mean the Premier League is wide open, La Liga looks anything but a two horse race this year and even the Serie A looks competitive!
Yeah I know. Have a feeling the ELO could come good again next year but it's a toss up at the moment.
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@richard-latimer don't think we should underestimate how much football is being played at the moment, teams really haven't had any time to prepare for the new season and the games are relentless. seems to have levelled the playing field somewhat, I mean the Premier League is wide open, La Liga looks anything but a two horse race this year and even the Serie A looks competitive!
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Now I'm not actively trading the ELO I'm finding it more and more of a chore to kkeep it updated. Nevertheless I have done so. Every now and then I see a few good results and wonder....should I be doing this still. Then Real Madrid and Atlanta throw up what they did yesterday and I think yeah....I made the right choice.
How do Real Madrid lose to Alaves at home only registering a consolation goal in the 86th minute???
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Disappointing not get a single full win but then no full loss either. Finish the day small red.
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A split in Atalanta for another small green.
Unfortunately PSG while still a split ended in loss due to odds on H2 over 1.5 and fact it was a H2 over 2.5 trade also. Very surprised that didn't come in with how it was lining up.
Currently 3-0 in Paraguay. 2SHG will set up the green day.
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Apparently Halland missed a sitter at the end but again small green.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
50/50 split on Zilina thank you very much so small green there. Dortmund looking good at present.
Although I see VAR cancelled the 2nd. Early days though.
