Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

First losing day in a bit. Not a heavy one. See if tomorrow brings anything.

[Richard Latimer]

Few potentials for tomorrow. Not bad for an international week:

[Richard Latimer]

Only this for tomorrow but I'll be in bed:

[Richard Latimer]

No ELO's tomorrow and so may be time for an early night.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer great news!

[Richard Latimer]

Thanks to a Larne comeback we're building some momentum again here. Another green day.

[Richard Latimer]

Just the one trade again today after Eindhoven won easily and I stayed out of Dundalk.

Laid Boa @ 0-1 and then re-layed @ 0-2. Goal back almost immediately so took red for around 1/4 point loss. Brusque still appeared dominant so on 90 mins and with price @ 1.16 I laid again as barely an increase in red.

Last minute goal and turned the 1/4pt red into around 0.75pts green in the end.

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's

Won't be jumping on Dundalk unless inplay stats too good to miss:

[Martin]

@richard-latimer good to hear!

[Richard Latimer]

Much better day today even with Arsenal shitting the bed. Thanks to @Darri who has made me think about the odds before jumping in. It's not to say I don't take higher odds but I'm looking at the inplay stats before jumping on anything above 3.0 very specifically.

Worked a charm today.

Thespakusatsu was decent odds and cashed 1-1

Molde went behind and the odds were just over 3.0. left it unmatched initially. They equalised late.

Porto went behind and odds were high but you could see they were dominant and I trusted them to come back. Come back they did just before HT.

Crvena Zvezda went behind around the 60th minute and odds were around 3.5-4.0 and jumping around. Could see that the away team were 50.0 when level so more than happy to lay although I left it unmatched @ 3.0. When it finally did match it did that thing where the price crashed to 2.8 then 2.6. Thankfully Crvena got a pen and they levelled. Actually won but I was out.

Arsenal went behind but then didn't. Then they did and they did again and again. Odds were ok so not end of the world for the trade but mighty pissed off other than that!

Milan went behind but odds high and they didn't look dominant. Left it for a bit and still not dominant. Odds still high. Then Verona made it 0-2. At that point I jumped as a goal back was highly likely. Went 1-2 and I cashed. When Milan were dominating the 2nd and odds much lower I got back in. Happy 2-2 cashout.

Normally I would have been in at 0-1, re-laying 0-2 and then cashing for small green at 1-2. As is this was a big green and smaller liability.

[Richard Latimer]

Can't get going at the moment but I'm glat have escaped from Radnicki Nis intact.

Saarbrucken was a nice straightforward comeback.
Was all ready to lay Radnik @ 3.0 when the price jumped up beyond 4.0. Then the liquidity disappeared and so I left it. Looked suspicious and for all the world like a fix. Eventually the price came in and the lay price moved closer to back so with mere minutes left I attempted a lay @ 1.19. Didn't work but I feel ok.
Fener are usually quite reliable sowhen they went behind I didn't take too long to get involved. Price was jumping though and so no sooner that I matched @ evens the price flew in and never went back. They lost a 2nd goal and despite a re-lay there nothing doing here.

On to Sunday:

[Richard Latimer]

Finally stopped the bleeding again today. 1 trade, 1 win, no mistakes. Thank you NEC.

Sat:

[Richard Latimer]

Should have stayed away from Ecuador but odds looked good as did inplay stats. Ecuador is definitely on my list to avoid at present until I see much much more:

[Richard Latimer]

Another nothing day coming up. Ecuador is a possibility.

[Richard Latimer]

Klaksvik qualified today but barely and I doubt I'll even include it in results such were the odds. They came back before the odds had even settled as well.

Nothing else so a scratch day. Feels good haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Just Kofu and another team in Faroes tomorrow. Faroes very rarely qualify. Prob a good league for backing as their favourites mostly seem to steamroller the other team haha!

Then again they are quite heavy favourites!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Just Kofu and another team in Faroes tomorrow. Faroes very rarely qualify. Prob a good league for backing as their favourites mostly seem to steamroller the other team haha!

[Richard Latimer]

Just Kofu and another team in Faroes tomorrow. Faroes very rarely qualify. Prob a good league for backing as their favourites mostly seem to steamroller the other team haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer been watching how you do for a while mate, iv always said the same thing about how i would trade them. Are you doing any of the following:

Current season only data
at least 10 games worth of current season played, always are upsets early season its why small teams can be near top because teams need time to gel together, united under fergie were prime examples of this.
key players
in play stats/watching the game?
Prices, this is the biggest thing i see with these, the prices are normally still rather large to lay compared to overall strike rate

iv been building a comeback strategy that im paper testing and its really got me thinking about this type of trade.

Will be interesting to see it. It's just variance I think. Trouble is like I said I've become distracted. Not made enough of the good and suffered on the bad.

Of course keeping track of the odds but the one thing I could count on as of last year was that the big odds weren't failing. Also, I'd be way better off of recent if I'd stuck to my original way of playing it. 2 goals down and the goal back is your eacape route. Not a way to increase potential green. The greedyness of seeing what others did for a bit had me come unstuck.

I do try and look for key players for sure. Inplay stats I've been done too many times not getting on because of the inplay stats.

Lat couple of days has seen big upsets but I keep looking at the overall to see whether the data is telling me to go later than I do but for now it's inconclusive. There are enough good results and not so many bad ones after my cutoff point.

Kawasaki this morning had plenty enough games but luckily I was asleep anyway. A quick look and they are stupidly far off in the distance so perhaps motivation not there today.

Romania been playing a while now and Cluj inplay stats plenty good enough. The 2nd goal was aa massive surprise and then they had a goal ruled out themselves which would have seen me exit.

Less said about the Benfica game the better haha!!

I will turn the ship around. Not long ago I said to myself it should snowball from here. What's happned is it went the other way when I took my off the ball and got caught up in other stuff.

@Darri never one to shy away from analysing stuff though I did take a look through the numbers.

Odds up to evens are around the 64% mark taking into account one re-lay and subsequent exit. This for initial entry and doesn't take into account any re-lays. It also doesn't take into account any re-lay at 1-2, 2-3 etc which mostly came good.

Clearly there is value there.

Odds between 2.0-2.5 are currently 21-5 (these are since I started new sheet by the way in August) so around 80%. There is one marked as green which would have been a struggle if I want to exit the trade after one back as I remember I wasn't quick enough to get on with a re-lay with goals coming 76 and 78. Either way I don't see a problem here.

Between 2.52-3.0 the results are 20-3 so hovering just under 87%

3.55-4.0 isn't so good at face value BUT......when you look at bigger reds and the fact there was an easy escape route mere minutes after most of the re-lays it really isn't that bad.

Backa Topola went down 0-2 and got 1 back minutes later. It's a red for me because not only did I escape, I went back in at 1-3. The escape was small green I remember. I turned that green to red with a stupid mistake.

Gremio v Sport Recife, went down 0-2, got one back. I reduced liability and stayed in. This was time to escape for small green.

Palmeiras went 0-2.......see the pattern haha!?

Hadjuk was a surprise. It remained 0-1 and so the loss was the loss. Hadjuk had played 6 games of their season and the opponent 7.

Atalanta only got back into it against Sampdoria late so it was take red for around half the liability. Not end of the world at all.

Ferreira vs Porto. Easy opportunity to scratch at 2-1. I didn't. That's the end of that.

Admittedly these haven't been much better than break even regardless of how they were played at those odds since August but certainly not a loss.

For odds over this then before last night I would have said the same. Break even over 4 matches, maybe even slightly green. Boavista massive dent there so it's food for thought for sure.

Will need to be way more careful on those odds.

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer been watching how you do for a while mate, iv always said the same thing about how i would trade them. Are you doing any of the following:

Current season only data
at least 10 games worth of current season played, always are upsets early season its why small teams can be near top because teams need time to gel together, united under fergie were prime examples of this.
key players
in play stats/watching the game?
Prices, this is the biggest thing i see with these, the prices are normally still rather large to lay compared to overall strike rate

iv been building a comeback strategy that im paper testing and its really got me thinking about this type of trade.

Will be interesting to see it. It's just variance I think. Trouble is like I said I've become distracted. Not made enough of the good and suffered on the bad.

Of course keeping track of the odds but the one thing I could count on as of last year was that the big odds weren't failing. Also, I'd be way better off of recent if I'd stuck to my original way of playing it. 2 goals down and the goal back is your eacape route. Not a way to increase potential green. The greedyness of seeing what others did for a bit had me come unstuck.

I do try and look for key players for sure. Inplay stats I've been done too many times not getting on because of the inplay stats.

Lat couple of days has seen big upsets but I keep looking at the overall to see whether the data is telling me to go later than I do but for now it's inconclusive. There are enough good results and not so many bad ones after my cutoff point.

Kawasaki this morning had plenty enough games but luckily I was asleep anyway. A quick look and they are stupidly far off in the distance so perhaps motivation not there today.

Romania been playing a while now and Cluj inplay stats plenty good enough. The 2nd goal was aa massive surprise and then they had a goal ruled out themselves which would have seen me exit.

Less said about the Benfica game the better haha!!

I will turn the ship around. Not long ago I said to myself it should snowball from here. What's happned is it went the other way when I took my off the ball and got caught up in other stuff.