Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Just looking at and odds 1.36 at 30 mins so left it, now 1-1 by 34 mins.....

[Richard Latimer]

Actually over odds not good enough period.

[Richard Latimer]

Odds on Jong Az not good enough for fhg or indeed if they go behind 0-1 early in 2nd half. Need 2 quick 2nd half goals or 1 this half and a leveller early 2nd.

[Richard Latimer]

For tomorrow:

Where ? the odds are slightly out so it will have to be monitored. Same sort of thing as in Uruguay. Any questions ask.

[Richard Latimer]

Before I set about tomorrows plan there is one for this evening that if things were to play out in a certain way I would be looking for goals and lots of them:

Goal between 10-21mins - Back another FHG from 29mins (30th)
1-1/0-1 @ HT and it stays that way until 70th, back another goal
Goal pre 60 puts Penarol into a losing position by 1 or a drawing position of 1-1/2-2 and it stays that way until 70th, back another goal.
2 quick goals upto and including 60th minute, back another goal 70th minute.
2 quick goals upto and including 60th minute, another pre 70, back another goal 80th minute.

Papertrade only

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Not much tomorrow but this overnight litte Beauty in Chile is one.

U. Catolica.

All the potential for HT goals depending on initial goals scored as always.

No goals scored so no win no loss.

[Richard Latimer]

Not much tomorrow but this overnight litte Beauty in Chile is one.

U. Catolica.

All the potential for HT goals depending on initial goals scored as always.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

This is the small set of games I'm looking at tomorrow:

Only Reading game qualified. LCS on 70. Winner on 86mins.

Full disclosure. It seems home odds didn't meet requirements.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

This is the small set of games I'm looking at tomorrow:

Only Reading game qualified. LCS on 70. Winner on 86mins.

[Richard Latimer]

This is the small set of games I'm looking at tomorrow:

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer This all adds to the data stream and for me helps find that entry point. I like the FHG market but unlike SHGs I don't have the confidence due to the lack of inplay data before making the trade.

[Richard Latimer]

There's a strange thing happening in first halfs and of course I have to put the caveat of very little data but initially it seems that games with a goal in the first 9 minutes are less likely to see another FHG than those between 10 & 24.

I really can't think of any particular reason for this right now but it's interesting all the same.

Maybe a team is shellshocked and retreats deeper if they concede so early. Doesn't really account for superior team not putting them to the sword though.

[Richard Latimer]

For todays trading plan which was considerably reduced, it was a mixed bag and prob break even.

2x early FHG's followed by......no more FHG's. Yes, I'm looking at you Sturm and Portsmouth.
2x 2nd halfs with early goals and crucially late goals. Stand up and take a bow Sturn (again) and Brescia.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Rapid Vienna, played the game 1-0 32 mins,

[Richard Latimer]

No joy in the FH yet but in terms of 2nd half its goals breeding goals again.

Late late one in Sturm, bang on 75th in Brescia.

[Richard Latimer]

Typical example of my mistakes, Cliftonville FHG ave today not good enough to get involved in FH market.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I'm cutting my paper trades down today as I would have to look to do in reality. Taking the most exciting parts of what I have and simply moving the rest to the side for now.

Everyone knows (or should that) while 0-0 is the least likely scoreline in football it is also the scoreline which heralds the least number of goals after a certain point in a game. Yes, there can be value and often is but as seen in Jan, there could be a fair bit of variance some months. Under 50% from 67th minute I think it was for January. Those are crazy figures and while you can sit and remove every league where you get a poor result you can also do what I'm doing which is to avoid them entirely. I must add that were I not finding so many other avenues of potentially greater value I wouldn't be so quick to come to this conclusion.

I am also continuing to track them in the background so nothing will ever truly go away.

However.....leaning in the direction I am currently leaning, what I am seeing so far is no requirement to remove any leagues at all. The dominant factor appears to be goals, when they were scored, who they were scored by and what the odds of said team winning are/were pre kick-off.

I have taken everything on board about mastering one strat before moving on to another and while this is several different ways of playing one game I don't believe it is really any more than one strat, just adapting to the odds and what is happening on the field.

I have but one filter and it is giving me all the angles I currently need.

FHG+ Early goal is scored by a fave of 2.2 or below prior to 23rd minute. At this point I will wait until the 30th minute (29 mins on the clock) to lay under 1.5 FH. FH home ave must also be 0.7 or above and ave book price for FH goal must not be below 1.26 currently.

LCS Score is 1-1 @ HT, ave book price for H2 over 0.5 is 1.14min and no further scores where game is approaching 70mins. Home ave for H2 must be 0.7 or above but overall ave must not be any lower than 1.6 or any higher than 2.3. 70th minute (69 mins on the clock) entry for this.

LCS70. 2 differing ways of dealing. With a home fave of 2.2 or less and an early goal that puts home side into a 1 goal loss I would look to enter for another goal on 70mins. For a home team of no higher than 3.58 put into a 1-1 or 2-2 scoreline by an early goal (pre 60mins) I would look for another goal with a 70th minute entry.

LCS75 needs 2 quick goals by either team making any scoreline. Would enter for another 75th minute.

LCS80 needs 2 quick goals pre 60 minute mark and another pre 70 minute mark. Would enter for another in the 80th.

I don't have a massive amount of data but I'm collecting it every day and what I do have is incredibly favourable.

Goals breed goals and those on top breed more goals.

I neglected to say the fave must be home team in FHG. I find entirely even games or those favouring the away team are entirely inconsistent when it comes to FHG.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm cutting my paper trades down today as I would have to look to do in reality. Taking the most exciting parts of what I have and simply moving the rest to the side for now.

Everyone knows (or should that) while 0-0 is the least likely scoreline in football it is also the scoreline which heralds the least number of goals after a certain point in a game. Yes, there can be value and often is but as seen in Jan, there could be a fair bit of variance some months. Under 50% from 67th minute I think it was for January. Those are crazy figures and while you can sit and remove every league where you get a poor result you can also do what I'm doing which is to avoid them entirely. I must add that were I not finding so many other avenues of potentially greater value I wouldn't be so quick to come to this conclusion.

I am also continuing to track them in the background so nothing will ever truly go away.

However.....leaning in the direction I am currently leaning, what I am seeing so far is no requirement to remove any leagues at all. The dominant factor appears to be goals, when they were scored, who they were scored by and what the odds of said team winning are/were pre kick-off.

I have taken everything on board about mastering one strat before moving on to another and while this is several different ways of playing one game I don't believe it is really any more than one strat, just adapting to the odds and what is happening on the field.

I have but one filter and it is giving me all the angles I currently need.

FHG+ Early goal is scored by a fave of 2.2 or below prior to 23rd minute. At this point I will wait until the 30th minute (29 mins on the clock) to lay under 1.5 FH. FH home ave must also be 0.7 or above and ave book price for FH goal must not be below 1.26 currently.

LCS Score is 1-1 @ HT, ave book price for H2 over 0.5 is 1.14min and no further scores where game is approaching 70mins. Home ave for H2 must be 0.7 or above but overall ave must not be any lower than 1.6 or any higher than 2.3. 70th minute (69 mins on the clock) entry for this.

LCS70. 2 differing ways of dealing. With a home fave of 2.2 or less and an early goal that puts home side into a 1 goal loss I would look to enter for another goal on 70mins. For a home team of no higher than 3.58 put into a 1-1 or 2-2 scoreline by an early goal (pre 60mins) I would look for another goal with a 70th minute entry.

LCS75 needs 2 quick goals by either team making any scoreline. Would enter for another 75th minute.

LCS80 needs 2 quick goals pre 60 minute mark and another pre 70 minute mark. Would enter for another in the 80th.

I don't have a massive amount of data but I'm collecting it every day and what I do have is incredibly favourable.

Goals breed goals and those on top breed more goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Not sure if it will be on Betfair but looking at NEROCA v Chennai in India tomorrow.

Predominantly looking for late goal if 1-1 and no prior H2 goals, late goal if 1-1 after quick early H2 goal, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals followed by another before 70.

Entry point would be 70 in first 2 instances, 75 in the next and 80 in the next.

Although not inplay and not part of my trading plan for what ultimately played out today it did have 2 late goals so do I include it or not in sheet? My gut says yes because it's part of the data subset. Would I be so keen if it had lost though haha?!

[Richard Latimer]

Not sure if it will be on Betfair but looking at NEROCA v Chennai in India tomorrow.

Predominantly looking for late goal if 1-1 and no prior H2 goals, late goal if 1-1 after quick early H2 goal, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals followed by another before 70.

Entry point would be 70 in first 2 instances, 75 in the next and 80 in the next.