Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

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Late ones again and the 4am looks like a potential for FHG.

Richard Latimer

Still living on scraps. Sapporo was all for today. I'll check Sundays potentials in a bit.

Let's start a countdown.

43 days left to make this work.

Richard Latimer

Only these few made the cut:

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Sapporo this morning was a disappointment. Thankfully I was in the bed for the FH so missed a 3rd FHG trade there after the 2nd went in. 2-0 @ HT though and you'd expect another goal. Looked at the stats after the fact and home missed 3 big chances 2nd half while away missed 1.

Will update in full later.

No regrets though and even if I was taking a more conventional route in the immediate this would have been a loss on the SHG.

Richard Latimer

As it turns out, this was the only trade today so finally a winning day again. For Sat, I need to double check them all which I will do tomorrow.

Early J League game will be fine though if anything qualifies.

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Richard Latimer

Stopped the rot today.

Start qualified for lay of 0-2 70th. Finished 1-3.

Richard Latimer

@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

I can only echo what Keith has said, Richard. Really wish you success. You definitely have something.

For the love of God, though, please look at simplifying what you do.

Thanks Stuart. I really appreciate you taking the time to look at my data. I know whatever I put in place has to be right for the beginning of the winter leagues no question.

Richard Latimer

@keith-anderson said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

OK, here we go...

You have at most 30 results for each scenario; in most cases, fewer than 20. Quite how you read anything into that, I'll never know. BUT, you have 78 FH scenario results and 383 SH scenario results.

The FH is one to track, but with what you have, I think you could look at games with an average 3+ goals, favourite at least 80% scored in past 5 games, but not 100%. I would guess you'd get 70% FHG at least, so laying around 3.33/backing 1.43 will make you money on simply a FHG.
With those parameters, your SHG strike rate would be around 80%, so back 1.25 or LCS at 5

SH- Look for the 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-0, 1-1 scorelines. With the games you get on your FH trades, you'll get a lot of SHG if you use the above scorelines.

You'll probably object on the ground of lack of specificity of odds/scenarios/types of butterfly seen that day. Just do it and see if I have a point. I think you have something very promising and it could be so much easier

This will come as no surprise, but I'm going to be as blunt as ever!

Firstly, thanks to @Stuart-Capstick for looking at the data. Stuart is extremely helpful and has also helped me and others.

Secondly, I actually think this is the 'Last chance Saloon' for you @Richard-Latimer (Told you I was going to be blunt). If you can't make this work you should quit trading (Blunt again). It's up to you now to execute the trades properly.

Lastly, We really do want you to succeed, That's why we keep posting. It's not meant to be a pile on and I know criticism is difficult to take, I struggle with taking criticism too, even if it's constructive criticism.

Next season is a very big season for you Richard. And I for one, wish you all the best

I know and you are 100% correct. That's why I've given myself a very small window to see if what I'm doing can work. I know there is massive skpticism and rightly so.

If it doesn't I know I have enough in my database (as Stuart has already pointed out) to make good steady gains in a simpler fashion.

I will succeed. I know I will. But you are right. It does have to be this year.

Stuart Capstick

I can only echo what Keith has said, Richard. Really wish you success. You definitely have something.

For the love of God, though, please look at simplifying what you do.

Akiva Anderson

@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

OK, here we go...

You have at most 30 results for each scenario; in most cases, fewer than 20. Quite how you read anything into that, I'll never know. BUT, you have 78 FH scenario results and 383 SH scenario results.

The FH is one to track, but with what you have, I think you could look at games with an average 3+ goals, favourite at least 80% scored in past 5 games, but not 100%. I would guess you'd get 70% FHG at least, so laying around 3.33/backing 1.43 will make you money on simply a FHG.
With those parameters, your SHG strike rate would be around 80%, so back 1.25 or LCS at 5

SH- Look for the 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-0, 1-1 scorelines. With the games you get on your FH trades, you'll get a lot of SHG if you use the above scorelines.

You'll probably object on the ground of lack of specificity of odds/scenarios/types of butterfly seen that day. Just do it and see if I have a point. I think you have something very promising and it could be so much easier

This will come as no surprise, but I'm going to be as blunt as ever!

Firstly, thanks to @Stuart-Capstick for looking at the data. Stuart is extremely helpful and has also helped me and others.

Secondly, I actually think this is the 'Last chance Saloon' for you @Richard-Latimer (Told you I was going to be blunt). If you can't make this work you should quit trading (Blunt again). It's up to you now to execute the trades properly.

Lastly, We really do want you to succeed, That's why we keep posting. It's not meant to be a pile on and I know criticism is difficult to take, I struggle with taking criticism too, even if it's constructive criticism.

Next season is a very big season for you Richard. And I for one, wish you all the best

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

In fact, checking teams a little closer the only ones still being watched are Start and Raufoss. Scrap the rest.

Obv tired last night.

Reason for ruling out Bohemians is that the away side Drogheda are a promoted team but that actually means their stats were earned in a lower league so again not something I will rule out.

The idea of this and always has been is that the home team scores a lot and should try and set the pace so fact away team may not be as good as stats suggest isn't a problem.

Richard Latimer

In fact, checking teams a little closer the only ones still being watched are Start and Raufoss. Scrap the rest.

Richard Latimer

I am giving great thought to what Staurt has said but regardless I'm still working from the daily potentials so will continue to post these.

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Think I'll stick with daily updates at the moment and try to keep it brief so no live trades. Not helping me or anyone else at the moment.

It's good to see that whatever I choose to do there is most definitely something in the data I've collected and continue to collect. I know it can easily be said I'm trying to almost create the perfect system at the moment and swimming against the tide.

If it's not successful I suppose you could pretty much say after the summer months (end July as I've stated many times), I will take it back to basics and I'm pretty confident I can start making money from the get go after Stuarts post and my own findings.

This is a 100% pledge!!

? Offline

@richard-latimer Please take on board what stuart is saying and hopefully now someone has given the advice to you in data format this will help change your mindset to all this rather than us just advising you to make the needed changes

Richard Latimer

@stuart-capstick no objections at all. You're looking at very similar things to what I did the other day in terms of pure SHG's.

Thanks. Really appreciate the second set of eyes.

Stuart Capstick

OK, here we go...

You have at most 30 results for each scenario; in most cases, fewer than 20. Quite how you read anything into that, I'll never know. BUT, you have 78 FH scenario results and 383 SH scenario results.
The FH is one to track, but with what you have, I think you could look at games with an average 3+ goals, favourite at least 80% scored in past 5 games, but not 100%. I would guess you'd get 70% FHG at least, so laying around 3.33/backing 1.43 will make you money on simply a FHG.
With those parameters, your SHG strike rate would be around 80%, so back 1.25 or LCS at 5
SH- Look for the 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-0, 1-1 scorelines. With the games you get on your FH trades, you'll get a lot of SHG if you use the above scorelines.

You'll probably object on the ground of lack of specificity of odds/scenarios/types of butterfly seen that day. Just do it and see if I have a point. I think you have something very promising and it could be so much easier

Steve Sandell

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@steve-sandell said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer all i would like to add coming from a newbie on here is, I've been through 3 strategies tested them and binned them as they weren't make enough points / % of my bank. Im now on my 4th one which works and looks profitable. So what im saying is don't get attached to a strategy, it doesn't matter how long you been doing it or how many games you have logged dont be afraid to bin it and move on.
Personal question you don't have to answer it but on average how many points / % of your bank are you making from your filter

I've tested so many ideas and always been too quick to throw out the baby with the bath water.

The filter is just a way of amassing data in potentially high scoring games. It doesn't seem to work on it's own that I can see.

Where I am hopeful is in looking at areas of the data. That said, I'm looking forward to seeing what Stuart is seeing.

I haven't made anywhere enough yet. This is crucial to the conversation and why people are concerned.

I was where you are now and it was incredibly frustrating to see something you have worked on for so long not work but there came a time when i said its not happening and forced myself to move on. Figures and data doesn't lie. imo if you are not making profit (there will be ups and downs) on average per month / year then just bin it and move on to the next. There are plenty of strategies out there some old some new but they are out there
Remember goals are random and can happen or not happen anytime

Richard Latimer

@steve-sandell said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer all i would like to add coming from a newbie on here is, I've been through 3 strategies tested them and binned them as they weren't make enough points / % of my bank. Im now on my 4th one which works and looks profitable. So what im saying is don't get attached to a strategy, it doesn't matter how long you been doing it or how many games you have logged dont be afraid to bin it and move on.
Personal question you don't have to answer it but on average how many points / % of your bank are you making from your filter

I've tested so many ideas and always been too quick to throw out the baby with the bath water.

The filter is just a way of amassing data in potentially high scoring games. It doesn't seem to work on it's own that I can see.

Where I am hopeful is in looking at areas of the data. That said, I'm looking forward to seeing what Stuart is seeing.

I haven't made anywhere enough yet. This is crucial to the conversation and why people are concerned.

Steve Sandell

@richard-latimer all i would like to add coming from a newbie on here is, I've been through 3 strategies tested them and binned them as they weren't make enough points / % of my bank. Im now on my 4th one which works and looks profitable. So what im saying is don't get attached to a strategy, it doesn't matter how long you been doing it or how many games you have logged dont be afraid to bin it and move on.
Personal question you don't have to answer it but on average how many points / % of your bank are you making from your filter

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Laying under 2.5 Louisville

Stayed 2-0. Annoying. I'm looking forward to seeing what @Stuart-Capstick has seen in my data. Honestly sometimes it can be hard to see the wood for the trees.

Richard Latimer

Laying under 2.5 Louisville