Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
-
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I wanted to look at what effect the first scoreline in the game is having to the 2nd FHG and it's kind of what I thought I was seeing. I imagine everyone thinks that the favourite goes behind and is desperate to get back in so therefore another goal before HT becomes more likely. What I'm seeing is actually the opposite.
Dog scores and the fav thinks, we have all the time in the world. They're not busting a gut to get back into it before HT. Plenty of time on the clock. Meanwhile I suppose, the dog has something to hold on to becomes more defensive.
When the home favourite is out of the blocks quickly I'm guessing they want to to turn that into a quick 2-0 lead. This in turn leads to many 2-0's and 1-1's as they get caught on the break and the away side thinks, s**t we better get our act together.
This is all summising and data is low so far but I'm doing what I always do and trying to find a reason for the pattern to continue or not.
54% 2nd FHG 30+ (13 selections) - less after tonight
70% 2nd FHG 30+ (33 selections)I would also imagine the odds COULD be better for another FHG. Everyone thinks the home side is 1-0 up, no need to force anything and the general concensus is odds should probably mirror what ithey were for a FHG, possibly even better it?
It's actually 66% from 29 selections - was looking at goals from 24mins onwards as opposed to 30mins. Still plenty good enough and initally much better than 0-1 which is so far a bit meh.
In fairness looking at 30mins + with 0-1 also takes that down to 50% 12 selections before tonight.
-
I wanted to look at what effect the first scoreline in the game is having to the 2nd FHG and it's kind of what I thought I was seeing. I imagine everyone thinks that the favourite goes behind and is desperate to get back in so therefore another goal before HT becomes more likely. What I'm seeing is actually the opposite.
Dog scores and the fav thinks, we have all the time in the world. They're not busting a gut to get back into it before HT. Plenty of time on the clock. Meanwhile I suppose, the dog has something to hold on to becomes more defensive.
When the home favourite is out of the blocks quickly I'm guessing they want to to turn that into a quick 2-0 lead. This in turn leads to many 2-0's and 1-1's as they get caught on the break and the away side thinks, s**t we better get our act together.
This is all summising and data is low so far but I'm doing what I always do and trying to find a reason for the pattern to continue or not.
54% 2nd FHG 30+ (13 selections) - less after tonight
70% 2nd FHG 30+ (33 selections)I would also imagine the odds COULD be better for another FHG. Everyone thinks the home side is 1-0 up, no need to force anything and the general concensus is odds should probably mirror what they were for a FHG, possibly even better it?
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
A win in Randers for 2nd half lcs. Goal coming on 68.
-
@mark-gorton Went in at 81 mins U1.5 at 1.65....I was happy with the way the game was moving but it wasn't to be.
-
@richard-latimer OK Richard I will let you know when I do. Because they are only £2 bets I laid U1.5 on 29 mins but cant remember the odds although they were OK. Not done anything the second half as but might go in at 1.7 in a couple of minutes again small odds.
-
@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
C'est la vie, now to move on to the 2H. I would like a few more shots on target but lets see...
If you are doing these for small stakes would be good if you can get some live prices?
-
C'est la vie, now to move on to the 2H. I would like a few more shots on target but lets see...
-
@richard-latimer Waiting with baited breath lol
-
Viitorul about to move into 2nd FHG territory.
-
Flash in the pan or better entry point for a 2nd FHG. This last weekend showed me the 30th minute could bee slightly better than 31st. For the 1 or 2 ticks you'd lose in value you potentially grab a few more fish on the hook.
Small data so far but 61% s/r from 41 selections hitting a 2nd FHG in 30th minute. By 30 mins you have cut the odds down to under evens for most I am pretty sure and sometime a fair bit under.
-
Bit of time:
-
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I'll update the sheet tomorrow but I would say that's no worse than a break even day with 3 green trades and 3 reds at probably pretty decent odds.
Slightly better as I missed the FHG greeen in Javor.
In any case, I'll posted todays in a while but Viitorul looking good for both FH & SH.
-
I'll update the sheet tomorrow but I would say that's no worse than a break even day with 3 green trades and 3 reds at probably pretty decent odds.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've not checked in full today but it seemed a bit of an iffy day.
-
@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I followed it until the Aarhus match and was looking at the first half goals due to the better odds in placed in the half time market. Still very good mate. I didn't trade as many but followed the flow and can see that the hit rate is pretty high...again I am saying this from a position of little knowledge but enjoying the amount of options this sheet throws up. Best regards.
Options is what I'm going for but bear in mind the averages and starting odds etc...as I do make mistakes.
-
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I followed it until the Aarhus match and was looking at the first half goals due to the better odds in placed in the half time market. Still very good mate. I didn't trade as many but followed the flow and can see that the hit rate is pretty high...again I am saying this from a position of little knowledge but enjoying the amount of options this sheet throws up. Best regards.
-
@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I have been following your data and excel predictions for a couple of weeks. I have traded a few at small odds because I am then confident that I would put real money using those stats further down the line. Yesterday had amazing results even though I didn't follow them all. Great stuff mate and the data and detail is way beyond anything I could do at my stage of the game ( Newbie)
If you did do anything at all today I hope you realised my mistake in fhg Lazio seeing as FH ave was only 0.5.
-
As always it's a blueprint. Matches I'm most excited about at the moment are the ones where you'd maybe think all the goals had been used up.
Everything is dependent on the odds being what they are at the moment in terms of 1x2 and of the odds not being miniscule inplay (usually seen and excluded easily enough by H2 over 0.5 odds and general over 2.5 odds over on oddsportal.com
-
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I have been following your data and excel predictions for a couple of weeks. I have traded a few at small odds because I am then confident that I would put real money using those stats further down the line. Yesterday had amazing results even though I didn't follow them all. Great stuff mate and the data and detail is way beyond anything I could do at my stage of the game ( Newbie)
-
Just working my way through plan now. I'm seeing enough as mentioned to be thinking that a 4th 2nd half goal becomes probable when you have 2 early ones followed by another before the 70th minute.
Let's call this LCS80
I'd welcome any questions or feedback. Don't know how many are looking and whether I'm confusing the crap out of everyone haha!?
