Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Not feeling the love in Eredivisie right now for tight games at 1/0/0-0. Sparta with an unexpected blank!

Gremio had loads of goals but they all came just that little bit too early or that little bit too late.

For Fri:

There are more on my list but I'm getting this one out there early. Looking for results to start levelling out at some point. Expect a FHG or 2nd FHG if the early one is missed.

0-0 @ HT will require at least one early goal before I deem it a trade. Other scorelines so far ok....

The red is there to signify in this case that Bengal have moved up a league, hence Goa (Odisha) more likely to score. Or at least think they can and leave the back door open. I really don't care which it is.

[Richard Latimer]

Not feeling the love in Eredivisie right now for tight games at 1/0/0-0. Sparta with an unexpected blank!

Gremio had loads of goals but they all came just that little bit too early or that little bit too late.

For Fri:

There are more on my list but I'm getting this one out there early. Looking for results to start levelling out at some point. Expect a FHG or 2nd FHG if the early one is missed.

0-0 @ HT will require at least one early goal before I deem it a trade. Other scorelines so far ok....

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Only 2 games today and papertrading only 2nd halfs in each.

Grrr.....every day a pretend red.

[Richard Latimer]

Only 2 games today and papertrading only 2nd halfs in each.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

First 2 games would have been a right pigs ear. Goalless in both and the equivalent of 3 losing trades. This is why I'm papertrading.

Thankfully the rest went to plan. 2 FHG in Belgium followed by a 67th minute goal to level up in Everton. Nothing else qualified. India looks a tricky league and CZE maybe not so good for FHG.

[Richard Latimer]

First 2 games would have been a right pigs ear. Goalless in both and the equivalent of 3 losing trades. This is why I'm papertrading.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Getting these early ones out there:

Full list:

[Richard Latimer]

Getting these early ones out there:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Here's my papertrading plan for today:

FHG+ implies if I miss an early goal there's a good chance of another.

LCS70/75 implies if I miss the first or 2nd goal there may still be a chance to get in 70/75. If only one early goal goes in then it needs to put the favourite in a position of losing by one or drawing.

Although virtually no data to back it up it's looking like if 3 early goals go in then chance of a late goal is still high. Maybe an entry point of 80 mins in this case. Will need to see how it plays out as I keep tracking daily.

1-0 is not a HT scoreline which has worked out in Eredivisie so far as the it reaches 67th minute with no further goals.

And so, a quick glance back:

AUE failed to get a FHG although data is starting to point to 0.7 being not a good enough FH home average....at least when the team isn't a much stronger favourite than around evens. They did get a late goal after falling behind early which continues to prove that goals breed more goals.

Eupen were 0-2 down @ HT, this along with 0-1 in Belgium seem to be like Kryptonite. I should have detailed it here but that was a no trade already put in place.

Exeter went behind early but there was no 2nd goal FH so that's a loser.

Barrow postponed.

PSV won late against Emmen so that's a green trade.

Rapid postponed.

Dusselfdorf a BIG FAT FAILURE!!

Cliftonville goals came at the wrong time. No trade.

Raith, despite seeing red scored late. It's difficult to rule out reds at present when out of more than 20 or so there's only been one loss. Time will tell.

Raith came up from league one so regardless they don't qualify and had I made that trade I would be annoyed at myself.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Here's my papertrading plan for today:

FHG+ implies if I miss an early goal there's a good chance of another.

LCS70/75 implies if I miss the first or 2nd goal there may still be a chance to get in 70/75. If only one early goal goes in then it needs to put the favourite in a position of losing by one or drawing.

Although virtually no data to back it up it's looking like if 3 early goals go in then chance of a late goal is still high. Maybe an entry point of 80 mins in this case. Will need to see how it plays out as I keep tracking daily.

1-0 is not a HT scoreline which has worked out in Eredivisie so far as the it reaches 67th minute with no further goals.

And so, a quick glance back:

AUE failed to get a FHG although data is starting to point to 0.7 being not a good enough FH home average....at least when the team isn't a much stronger favourite than around evens. They did get a late goal after falling behind early which continues to prove that goals breed more goals.

Eupen were 0-2 down @ HT, this along with 0-1 in Belgium seem to be like Kryptonite. I should have detailed it here but that was a no trade already put in place.

Exeter went behind early but there was no 2nd goal FH so that's a loser.

Barrow postponed.

PSV won late against Emmen so that's a green trade.

Rapid postponed.

Dusselfdorf a BIG FAT FAILURE!!

Cliftonville goals came at the wrong time. No trade.

Raith, despite seeing red scored late. It's difficult to rule out reds at present when out of more than 20 or so there's only been one loss. Time will tell.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Here's my papertrading plan for today:

FHG+ implies if I miss an early goal there's a good chance of another.

LCS70/75 implies if I miss the first or 2nd goal there may still be a chance to get in 70/75. If only one early goal goes in then it needs to put the favourite in a position of losing by one or drawing.

Although virtually no data to back it up it's looking like if 3 early goals go in then chance of a late goal is still high. Maybe an entry point of 80 mins in this case. Will need to see how it plays out as I keep tracking daily.

1-0 is not a HT scoreline which has worked out in Eredivisie so far as the it reaches 67th minute with no further goals.

[Richard Latimer]

Here's my papertrading plan for today:

FHG+ implies if I miss an early goal there's a good chance of another.

LCS70/75 implies if I miss the first or 2nd goal there may still be a chance to get in 70/75. If only one early goal goes in then it needs to put the favourite in a position of losing by one or drawing.

Although virtually no data to back it up it's looking like if 3 early goals go in then chance of a late goal is still high. Maybe an entry point of 80 mins in this case. Will need to see how it plays out as I keep tracking daily.

[Richard Latimer]

Mixed bag again. On the JOFFS front taking only draws from HT and the occasional early H2 goal which goes from 0-1 - 1-1 it was 2/3.

Saarbrucken had an unexpected blank but both Twente & Lazio picked up the slack.

In terms of FHG, nothing from Saarbrucken or Celta Vigo but Honved did manage to convert.

Finally Hatayspor managed to make it 1-1 from 1-0 at the death.

[Richard Latimer]

Putting things down here slightly different today in an abbreviated format as this is for my benefit and I simply don't have the time to regurgitate in great detail on a daily basis. I'm following same format as yesterday and the day before so if people have been following it should be easy enough to decipher.

That said, if anyone has any questions and I'm around I will do my best to answer:

[Richard Latimer]

Back with todays papertrading plan in a bit.

[Richard Latimer]

After a good day Friday, Saturday was disappointing but that's why I'm doing it like this. I'm not just measuring the filter and accompanying stats but my ability to read it.

First off Paderborn. FHG in but LCS @ 1-0 not so a 50/50 split. It's the first 1-0 from HT in my data for this league but once again that scoreline bites.

Kerala Blasters, 0-1 @ HT and just one 2nd half goal comes too early on 57th. No trade.

Roma. FHG's came too early as did 2nd half goals so no trade. As a side note however, what I'm finding is it doesn't matter if 2 or 3 goals have been scored early doors 2nd half.....it all points to another before FT and so far a late one. I could easily get in @ 80mins ths far and reap the rewards. It might be that my data takes me an entirely different way to the people who leave games when goals come too early as as this point these are some of the most reliable games I have on the sheet. I suppose it makes sense in as much as when early goals are scored and in their multiples then you have the biggest barometer yet to say the game is live.

Freiburg. No goals 2nd half and no trade as I ruled out any action there without prior 2nd half goals.

Wolfsberger a shock 0-0 but looking at the inplay stats they missed 4 big chances. Would include on next plan and the next and the next.....and so on.

Adana Demirspor. No FHG which was a surprise but a quick early 2nd half goal made it 1-1 and as such a late entry on 70mins would have provided a winning LCS. 50/50 split.

AC Milan. 2nd half goal came too early and just the one of them so no trade on this particular game.

Kortrijk. 1-2 @ HT and 1-2 it stayed. I still think this scoreline merits persevering with as only 1 loss since I started collecting the data and plenty of wins. Will have to check whether home odds have an effect. In any case, losing trade.

Grenoble. No FHG so loser there but LCS on 68 so winner there. 50/50 split.

Nancy. FHG came too early for current plan and 2nd half goals too late. No trade.

Ujpest. One early goal 2nd half but the next didn't come until 61st so no trade there.

Basel 0-0 @ HT so no trade there as wanted an early goal if getting involved. Goal on 67 mins but again no trade as Swiss Super is one of those where I'm finding youy get 0, 1 or 50 haha!! As it happens.....5 2nd half goals in around 25mins.

Hercacles. No FHG, but goal on 88 so LCS in. 50/50 split.

Cobresal. One early FHG and no more. One early 2nd half goal and no more. In essence I guess, that's 2 losing trades.

[Richard Latimer]

First set of games ilicited 1 successful FHG and one not so successful LCS @ 67th min.

Milan. Would look for a late goal 67th minute if no prev H2 goals scored provied scoreline not 1-0 or 2-0 from HT. If 2 quick goals before 60th minute I would enter for 75th minute looking for another.

Glenavon. Same plan but no excluded scorelines yet.

Kortrijk. If home odds 2.20 or less ave book price I would look for FHG on 23rd minute. If goal comes earlier I would look to enter after 30mins searching for another before HT.

Same game. I would expect a late goal (67th minute entry) if no prior 2nd half goals scored with 2 exceptions - A 0-1 or 0-2 score from HT. If home odds 2.2 or less and quick goal scored before 60th to put kotrijk either one behind or on level terms I would enter looking for another on 70th minute. If 2 quick goals scored before 60th I would enter 75th minute for another regardless of score or home odds.

Grenoble, same plan as Paderborn this morning for both halves but excluding the HT score of 1-0 where it's a tight game and no goals yet 2nd half.

Nancy is the same as Grenoble if home odds 2.2 or less otherwise it would be the same plan as for Milan but with only the 1-0 HT score excluded for tight games with no prior 2nd half goals.

Ujpest same plan as Milan. No excluded scorelines yet.

Basel would be a FHG BUT ONLY IF THEY HAVE ALREADY SCORED ONE EARLY (before 23rd). Enter 30mins. Same again 2nd half but only if either 1 quick goal scored before 60th putting Basel 1 behind/on level terms or if 2 quick goals scored in the same timeframe (either team/any score). 70th minute for 1 goal and 75th minute if 2 already scored.

Heracles. Exactly same plan as for Nancy and same excluded 1-0 scoreline on tight games with no prior H2 goals.

Cobresal. FHG, enter 23rd minute and if goal comes too early, enter for another on 30mins.

LCS for late goal 67th minute as long as not 1-0/0-0 from HT. If 1 quick goal scored putting Cobresal behind by 1 or on level terms go for another 70th min. If 2 quick goals scored (either team/any score) in same timeframe go for another 75thmin.

[Richard Latimer]

@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, well that goal was bang on 30 mins. Another one to prove the stats.

Yeah but my entry point would have been 23rd. It's only 30mins if goal comes too early. Either way yes, it proves the stats but more importantly it's about proving my decision making process.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, well that goal was bang on 30 mins. Another one to prove the stats.

[Richard Latimer]

Early start so I've mapped out a plan to go until 17:00 initially:

Paderborn, I expect FHG and if it comes prior to 23rd minute I expect another. Would enter 30mins upwards. Odds should be very good by that point in relation to the frequency I am seeing it happen.

Same good should be good for a late goal if no prior H2 goals scored before 60th (entry 67th), 1 goal scored before 60th putting Paderborn into a losing or drawing position (entry 70th) or 2 goals scored before 60th any score, either team (entry 75th).

Kerala Blasters, late goal (entry 67th) if no prior 2nd half goals before 60th and entry 75th if 2 quick goals scored before 60th.

AS Roma, same FH plan as Paderborn. Same 2nd half plan too but for late goals where no prev scored before 60mins no HT scores of 2-0/1-0. I am wary of this for the time bein in Italy.

Freiburg. Will only back late goal on 75th minute if 2 quick 2nd half goals scored prior to 60th minute. It should go without say I don't want anymore than that scored and certainly none in the 60-75min window

Wolfsberger AC. Same 2nd half plan as Paderborn.

Adana Demirspor. Same overall plan as Paderborn but in tight game that remains 0-1 from HT @ 67mins I will take a hard pass.

Finallly, odds must be at least acceptable. If ovwer 2.5 odds less than 1.4 ave book price it will be a leave. If odds for 2nd half goal are less than 1.12 ave book price it will again be a leave. If draw odds ave book price exceed 5.99 it will be a leave. Finally a tight game that remains 2-2 from HT going into 67th minute will be a leave.

Will post more games later. This is my virtual trading plan although I am doing nothing more at present that talking myself through it and waiting until I can record day in day out consistency in my results before I start again for real.